European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - February 22, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse Saturday february 22, 1992 the stars and stripes b Page 13 commentary Ellen Goodman voters want candidates to show the Way Aff Ivou better off thw1hah Vou were went Soffio Paul Tsongas takes some getting used to. There is his name. Tsongas As in the poster at a new Hampshire Pool a a swimmers for there is his humor. It runs the Gamut from droll to dry to wry. There is also his appearance. Dour. And his defining life changing experience. Cancer. Then there is his prescription to cure the Economy. It sounds like the economic equivalent of a Bone marrow transplant. Pretty grim. Great if it works. The people of new Hampshire had the time to get used to the Man from Lowell mass. They got Over the slight speech impediment and the Gray effect and the Speedo swimsuit. Ana somewhere along the line they stopped thinking of him As another greek from Massachusetts. He became the Plain direct straight ahead Guy who said clearly what was wrong Ana said clearly what he would do about it. Again and again. He convinced the voters that he Wasny to Santa Claus and might not be a Star but he knew what he was talking about. The coming after the election night before some would Tell you that Tsongas won because new England is his turf. Local boy makes Good. Some would Tell you that he did no twin Clinton lost. To Gennifer to the draft Board to the Media. Or maybe say that Clinton won because he survived. Some would Tell you that Tsongas is just a the Green room a the waiting room of the democratic primary. A Safe place to put your vote until the real Star of the party takes the stage. Some would Tell you that hell have his slightly balding head handed to him in the South and the West. That he Isnit much for pressing the flesh and has a bit too much arrogance and too Little Cash. And there is some truth in All of this. But sitting on the new Hampshire Border watching this primary unfold Over weeks and months in ads and debates in the Marathon testing of men and messages it looks like Tsongas took hold for one reason. He was the one Democrat who said Best what people know in their gut. The whole world is changing under our feet we better Start catching up. Credit Pat Buchanan for the most effective Bush bashing. But the democrats in new Hampshire were sending a message As Well George Bush is history. Not in the grotesque Arnold Schwarzenegger sense of the word a a Shasta la Vista Bush is history in the literal sense. World War ii. The cold War. The eighties. No bragging about How we won the cold War no rousing choruses of a a we re ,�?� not even a replay of the iraqi desert song can change reality. There is a Strong sense across the country that As the world changes we Are mired in a Backwater of nostalgia and economic decay. This is our first Post cold War election and the atmosphere Here is not unlike England in 1946 when the people turned out Churchill. Thank you very much sir and goodbye. A people want the truth and i am giving it to them a said Tsongas. Humility is not the Strong suit of this self declared truth Teller. But clarity is. And so is persistence. He doggedly presented himself As the a pro business Liberal offering pain and perestroika and a pamphlet of economic ideas. Somewhere in new Hampshire Bob Kerrey a Persona blurred around the edges and Tom Harkin played to the past and Jerry Brown became As jarring As an 800 number on automatic redial. What brought the former senator to the front of the pack was his ability to state the problem and offer a plan. And what stopped Bill Clinton a slide into oblivion was not his Charm or even his Cool under fire. It was persistent and confident answers to question after question about what we should do. This Campaign May degenerate into sound bites and Back biting. By september we May be Back to red White and Blue. What is Worth noting is that the Campaign began in new Hampshire with voters looking for the Guy who can Tell them How to get out of the rut. They want to know what happens next. Its that old and that fresh. The first round went to citizens for Tsongas. The message is that we re getting serious a at last. C Tho Boston Globo William Safir rightists threaten mainstream gop s future my Early prognostication still holds. Clinton gets the democratic nomination chooses Kerrey for up and they run a respectable race the Economy turns up briskly and the Bush Quayle ticket wins. To Check this out on the morning after new Hampshire i called a former Boss and observed How this was a great Day for old Nixon hands. A a you re referring to Bush a he asked. That was a Snappy comeback for a Man pushing 80, but comebacks Are Richard Nixon a thing and he counts George Bush As Well As Pat Buchanan among his old hands. He sees the democrats winning the Northeast and leading in California where recession came late and will last longer. The republicans hold the South take the Midwest and win. But Buchanan has exposed Bush beat ability How should the president handle him a the Bash Buchanan a replied Nixon a a he la need those people. And in the end conservatives will vote for that is How Nixon retained support of Goldwater a people after the 1964 debacle wiped out republicans everywhere. Nor should Bush pander to the isolationism or nativism of the movement reborn a a he Sas far right As he ought to that a Nixon a advice now let me take a Long look ahead on my own. Buchanan has wounded Bush. The Media Sawy slugger will be forced to split the protest vote with David Duke for a while and it will be a Long time before he sees 40 percent again. But Buchanan a anti immigrant oratory will touch a chord of racist resentment in California. The Republican convention of 1992 will be a replay of 1976 the incumbent president wins but the challengers withdrawal speech steals the show. Buchanan will try to play challenger Reagan to Bush a president Ford at conventions close Buchanan will grimly endorse the ticket with his supporters aware that he privately Hopes the republicans lose. In the fall of 1992, we will be into the Campaign of 1996. Both parties choose centrists in 1992 most of the Buchanan far right no More than 10 percent of the electorate casts a a Clothespin vote a holding its nose and voting for Bush. If Bush wins internecine War would Start Early with Low presidential ratings in a surly second term helping fan ultralight flames. Vice president Quayle the Bush loyalist would be mired in the swamp of disenchantment at the end of most second terms. Buchanan and his anti minority minority then dust off f. Clifton Whites old playbook and make their bid for an ideological coup. Back to new Hampshire this time not to wound but to win. What conservative to the right of Bush but nowhere near the deep end a would rally the majority of republicans who would remind the primary voters of the self indulgent Folly of implosion that last time led inexorably to democratic landslide the great society and unwinnable War there is Jack Kemp his Reagan Ite speeches becoming succinct As he matures there a gov. Pete Wilson of California taking a beating now but sure to come Back with his state there a sen. Phil Gramm of Texas if the South becomes the Republican redoubt. Not one of this Trio or quartet with Quayle is burdened with the arrogance and elitism of Nelson Rockefeller the Goldwater foil. But not one is building the organizational base or drafting the Long Range plans to keep the party in the Eisenhower Nixon Reagan mainstream out of the hands of a Little band of wilful extremists. Pat Buchanan has already proven he is far More political la adept than his Early idol Barry Goldwater e also hates harder and has More of a a a movement messianism. If his Republican coup fails in 1996, he is Likely to Lead his legion out into a reincarnation of the know nothings a insuring an Era of democratic dominance. Has George Bush thought any of this through if he cares he will conduct his Campaign and his presidency in a Way that builds the vital Center of he party of the right. C the now York Timos tha opinions apr Assad in tha columns and cartoons on this Paga rap a Aasel Nom of tha authors and sri in no Way to is Conan dared of rap is Santing tha a Laws of the stars and strips or tha unit so Statas gov am Manl
