European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - March 7, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse Saturday March 7, 1992 the stars and stripes a Page 13 commentary Robert Shoga democratic race turning into a Marathon the ballots cast tuesday in the democrats most important round of contests to Date this year made it eminently Clear that a hard struggle lies ahead before the party finds its 1992 Standard bearer. And that spells the end of democratic leaders dream a perhaps never realistic a that the party could avoid the divisiveness of past campaigns Settle on a Strong candidate Early and concentrate on exploiting the unexpected vulnerabilities of the incumbent president. A a we re in for a Long argument a said John Sasso who managed Michael s. Dukakis 1988 presidential Campaign. Some democrats including Sasso contend that a Long Campaign a fractious As it is beginning to be a could ultimately Force the party to redefine itself in a Way that would help bring Back the voters who deserted it since it last won the White House nearly two decades ago. A a it a a healthy debate because its about the Economy a Sasso said insisting that a i done to see anything Here that Isnit going to help the because the two top contenders Arkansas gov. Bill Clinton and former Massachusetts sen. Paul e. Tsongas offer sharply divergent messages so this argument goes they could broaden the party a Appeal. And if one of them eventually wins and reaches out to supporters of the other the result could be a reforming of the electoral coalition that led to the new Deal the new Frontier and the great society. Clinton who won the Georgia primary on tuesday reaches out to Blue Collar workers the lower Middle class and Blacks in the cities and Countryside. Tsongas who won the Maryland and Utah primaries on tuesday appeals to the better educated White Collar and professional voters. The other democratic contenders in their different ways make similarly divergent appeals. But tuesdays results suggest that increasingly bitter Battles Are Likely to occur before the nominee is selected. And if the democrats record is any indication such strife is As Likely to Divide them further As it is to bring about reconciliation. Tsongas and Clinton each won just enough tuesday to help his own candidacy forge ahead but neither came close to making himself dominant. In addition the returns from Colorado and Utah vaulted former California gov. Jerry Brown into a More prominent role and positioned him to make it even More difficult for either of the front runners to achieve a majority. Brown won in Colorado and finished second in Utah. Analysts believe that with the race dominated by the two relatively conservative contenders Brown can keep his candidacy alive from week to week by appealing to the frustrated members of what was once the party a dominant Liberal cadre. In a sense Brown a with his emotional anti establishment populist message a would fill the role for liberals that Jesse Jackson played in the 1984 and 1988 campaigns. Clinton a big Victory in Georgia reaffirmed his claim to his base in Dixie just a week before next weeks super tuesday primaries involving 11 states Many of them in the South or near it. A i think Clinton had a tremendous Victory in Georgia said Merle Black Emory University specialist in Southern politics. A i think he really set himself up for the South Carolina primary this saturday and for super As for Tsongas his Success in Maryland established him As a National candidate and assured him of the funding he needs. Mark Siegel a democratic political strategist whose experience dates Back to the presidential campaigns of Hubert Humphrey thinks that Tsongas Appeal to higher income and better educated voters should help him win delegates in the relatively affluent suburbs outside Chicago and in suburban areas of Michigan beyond Detroit when Illinois and Michigan vote March 17. Of course Clinton a partisans were Quick to Point out that their Man also had demonstrated breadth of Appeal by his Strong showing in the Colorado primary where he finished third 1 percentage Point behind Tsongas. And now they looked ahead to the next two weeks of contests. The Only sense in which tuesdays returns seemed to simplify the race was in clarifying the future of the Bottom of the democratic pack. On thursday Nebraska sen. Bob Kerrey dropped out of the race and Iowa sen. Tom Harkin appeared to be edging closer to elimination. Kerrey was unable to capitalize on his South Dakota Success last week he finished out of the Money everywhere on tuesday. Harkin won in the Minnesota caucuses As had been expected. But his strategist had said beforehand that he needed to run Strong enough in Minnesota and the caucuses in Washington and Idaho to win More delegates for the Day than any other candidates a a development that seemed unlikely. C los Antolos times Dave Mcneel democrats May hitch their Star to a texan it May seem improbable but the idea of someone other than the current crop of democrats eventually becoming the party a 1992 nominee is still out there. And one person who could be Well positioned to do it would be Texas senior senator Lloyd Bentsen. Feature this scenario Bill Clinton does relatively Well in the primaries up to and including super tuesday on March 10, getting enough delegates that it will be difficult for anyone else to win on the first ballot at the democratic National convention. But in april or May the continuing drumbeat from his opponents about alleged adultery maybe another High Heel dropping and the circumstances surrounding his non service in Vietnam might fuel voter suspicions so much that Clinton a negative rating hits 50 percent. The democrats panic. They feel they cannot go into the general election with a wounded candidate. That a especially True for members of Congress and state legislators who remember disastrous years like 1972, when their ranks were thinned because George Mcgovern was at the top of the ticket. So finally they persuade Clinton to withdraw and release his delegates. Bentsen or perhaps House majority Leader Dick Gephardt of Missouri Steps in to claim them. Bentsen is a slightly More conservative democratic centrist than Clinton. He has a Long held taste for the White House. In 1975, he reasoned that the country was ready to elect a Democrat with a Southern base. He was right however the person who got the nod in 1976 was a Little known former Georgia governor named Jimmy Carter. Bentsen who had skipped Iowa and new Hampshire folded his Campaign even before it got to Texas. But he has recovered Well. In 1988, Michael Dukakis chose Bentsen to be the democrats vice presidential nominee. Even though the ticket lost Bentsen won a lot of name identification Good feeling about his solidity and an updated National card file of Power brokers. Bentsen is chairman of the Senate finance committee one of the most powerful posts in the american government. He is chairman of the joint committee on taxation. At 71, with his Silver hair and regal Good looks he looks like a president a something some forty something members of Congress think might be More scalable than anyone in the current crop of candidates. Also Bentsen has beaten George Bush before a in 1970, when Bentsen was first elected to the Senate. For Bentsen who said recently he was a a out of the 1992 race a draft would be the Only Way to run. He misses the Strain of All that retail political campaigning in new Hampshire Iowa Maine and elsewhere. More importantly he avoids in some of those states the Liberal litmus tests that almost Force a candidate to make pandering statements that would come Back to haunt him in the general election. Bentsen also would avoid the fratricidal warfare of to ads and debate charges that is giving the current democratic contenders a mud Bath. Bentsen has the luxury of continuing a statesmanlike role As he did on a television talk show sunday a loftily discussing the need for fairer taxes for the Middle class while the others Trade kidney punches in. Georgia Colorado and Maryland. Bentsen can claim appropriately that he Hasni to time to spend wading through the snows of new Hampshire or elsewhere. He can to afford to be out shaking hands and answering the same questions Over and Over. He needs to be in Washington because the nations Economy is at stake. Just As Bentsen was willing to risk being on a losing presidential ticket in 1988, he mind at All submitting to a genuine draft and going up against George Bush for the big one in 1992. What he Wasny to willing to do was join the presidential primary Battle from the beginning and risk the Nightmare possibility of again losing the nomination to an obscure Southern governor. C Cox news service
