European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - March 13, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Friday March 13, 1992 the stars and stripes Page 13 commentary James j. Kilpatric Clinton s train chugging toward november barring some disastrous event it will be George Bush against Bill Clinton in november. The outcome will turn on the vote in California. When the time comes be prepared to stay up All night. Clinton has won a great bundle of democratic delegates a enough for him to sound the trainman a cry of a fall  the race Isnit Over till its Over but its All but Over now. Bob Kerrey and Tom Harkin have dropped out. Neither one Ever had a real Prospect of winning the party nomination. Kerrey had Little to run on apart from his valiant service in Vietnam and his medal of Honor. He has set no fires As a . Senator. His record As governor of Nebraska was not especially impressive. As a campaigner he left an impression of a Nice Guy but. Harking a assets were As limited. Running As the a Only True democrats in the new Deal tradition of Franklin Roosevelt Harkin offered Large promises to a Small audience. His Foremost accomplishment As a senator a an accomplishment i have warmly applauded a is the americans with disabilities act. Many business people especially those with Small companies see the act As one More Burden to Bear. So much for Harkin. What makes Bill Clinton the almost certain nominee his remaining opposition is weak. He has the Money it takes to sustain his Campaign. As his momentum builds he will look More electable a and that a what politics is All about. Paul Tsongas the one time senator from Massachusetts has been getting a free ride from the press. Everybody loves an underdog. Everybody admires a Man who triumphs Over adversity. Tsongas has captivated the travelling Media corps by talking sense. The Novelty leaves reporters speechless. Novelty alone will not prevail. A great Many voters see Tsongas As another Michael Dukakis a one More Liberal from Massachusetts. They close their eyes and they imagine Tsongas in a tank and they close their eyes a Little tighter. By every account Tsongas overcomes his codfish image by a dry wit but it takes big Money to mount an effective Campaign and Tsongas does no to have it. Money is Jerry Browne a problem too a one of Browne a problems. His big problem is an image that wont go away. It is the image of Brown the California Snowflake who As governor slept in a cheap apartment instead of the governors mansion. Brown is a grand Stander. He is a Brilliant fellow in some ways but brilliance has this in common with hard Rock bagpipes and the chatter of Little children it is Best appreciated at a appt distance. Brown will win a couple of Hundred delegates in California in june. Too Little too late. That brings us Down to Clinton the super tues 1c Day sensation. He is racking up committed delegates to the new York convention. So far he is playing his cards skilfully. Analysts will pore Over tuesdays returns looking for evidence of serious weakness. Nothing substantive appeared in South Carolinas primary saturday. Democratic voters hungry for a Winner appeared willing to Overlook both adultery and draft avoidance. South Carolina prides itself on its Mili tary heritage. The state has a Large population of fundamentalist protestants. Clinton won 63 percent. Momentum Isnit everything in a presidential Campaign. Other factors count heavily a a candidates personality his to commercials his wit and composure in debates the vague impression of his stand on the big issues a but momentum is a powerful locomotive. Clinton a people will be spreading the word that the train is leaving the station. Were you for Bill before super tuesday get aboard or get left. Nothing much remains to be said on the Republican Side. Wherever Bush is pitted against Patrick Buchanan it will be Bush 65, Buchanan 35 a or thereabouts. Buchanan a second place showing leaves him like the disappointed woman in the Patsy Cline Ballad. The woman kept the pictures while her rival got her Man. Patrick has the protest. George has the vote. The rules of punditry require that every pundit hedge his predictions. One More a big neg a meaning negative could wreck the Clinton candidacy As swiftly As it has risen. A a Stop Clinton a move May be confidently expected. The momentum that has been flowing against Bush could bring him to defeat in the electoral College in november. Its now Bush a race to lose Clinton a to win. C Universal Pross Syndicate George f. Wil Campaign boiling Down to forgettable Dregs Florida a geological late arrival was the last part of what is the Continental United states to Rise from the Ocean. Paul Tsongas probably wishes it had stayed submerged. The least Southern of All Southern states Florida was Tsongas Best Chance to put Sand in the gears of Bill Clinton a machine. Instead Florida gave maximum momentum to that machine As it Rolls toward the real super tuesday next week in Michigan and especially Illinois. When in the Distant future narrators Are retelling the Homeric epic of this presidential Campaign they will linger Over the inexpressibly sad fact that the lamp of love Between Bill Clinton and Paul Tsongas was extinguished in the run up to super tuesday. Clinton attacking Tsongas shouted a growth first fairness later a Bull we never had growth without fairness and we never  now nonsense is to be expected from tired candidates who have Many More speaking engagements than they have sensible things to say. But Clinton is exceeding the limits of permissible babble. His complaint about the 1980s a k a the Reagan terror is that there was growth without fairness. And one can imagine How Clinton disdains the growth of the gilded age and the 1920s. Is he now saying it is better to have no growth than growth without fairness a that growth should wait until there is consensus about fairness according to Clinton Tsongas sins against fairness include consideration of limiting Cost of living adjustments of some entitlement programs for the wealthy. Also Clinton criticizes Tsongas for proposing to phase in a 30 to 50-cent-a-Galon increase in the gasoline tax Over 10 years. If 45 cents were added instantly the Cost of a gallon would be in real terms what it was in 1950. For his part Tsongas says Clinton is a a pander bears telling a a blatant lies. A Century ago an acute student of these things the novelist Anthony Trollope noted that in democracies disputes Between politicians Are fiercest when the real differences Are smallest. A it is the same in religion. The apostle of christianity and the infidel can meet without a Chance of a quarrel but it is never Safe to bring together two men who differ about a Saint or a  it must get galling for Clinton who expected to run As the candidate of unconventional realism against some Tom har Kin like Liberal to find himself flanked on the moralist realist Side by Tsongas. Even before tuesdays voting it became official yet again neither party will nominate a serving member of Congress. Twenty years have passed since the last serving member was nominated Mcgovern and 32 years since the last member was elected Kennedy. Nebraska a sen. Bob Kerrey was knocked out Early partly because he got in six months late he missed Spring training. Iowa a sen. Harkin got in 45 years late. He is a 1940s labor Liberal part Harry Truman and a Little bit like Iowa a Henry Wallace. In presidential politics Money is the Root of All excuses. Harkin having unfurled the Banner of pure liberalism has re furled it saying the usual thing that he had no Choice because he had no Money to get his message out. He sedulously misses the Point his message got out loud and Clear and if people had liked it he would have had pots of Money. Clinton does have pots of Money and probably will be nominated even though e has ominously High  indeed he is winning partly because of them people Admire the Way he blogs on carrying All that baggage. But the baggage remains and come autumn republicans will not be reticent about it. However Clinton will be running against a president repudiated by one third of the Republican party and two thirds of any Republican presidents base of True believers. Bush who has the entire executive Branch at his disposal has allowed the conversation of the Campaign to be controlled by a columnist on sabbatical. Amazing. Bush is the most potent negative campaigner in history the More he campaigns the More his own negatives Rise. His Best strategy would be to go to Earth in Bermuda until november emerging Only to wage Short wars against third world miscreants. Much will change Between now and november but today a reasonable Wager would be that election Day will see another reduction in voter turnout. Tens of millions of people May choose not to choose Between a democratic nominee they do not quite Trust and a failed president they no longer respect. Washington Post writet3 group