European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - April 21, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse                                The Battle against global warming heats up by Earl Lane new Day eight of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1980. The North pole s sea ice May have shrunk by 2 percent in the last 30 years. Officials of Small Island nations worry that disappearing beaches May Cut tourism. Coral reefs Are losing color and dying a problem some scientists blame on rising water temperatures. What s going on Here is All this just a result of natural variations in the Earth s climate or Are these Early signs that global warming has begun such questions once confined largely to science journals have become the stuff of High school lessons office Small talk and nervous doomsday jokes about the Good old Days when it used to Snow. Many scientists believe that a unless something is done a emissions of heat trapping gases such As Carbon dioxide could boost average global temperatures at least two degrees in the next 40 years. That some fear could cause drought and starvation coastal flooding and destruction of species. But they cannot say if such changes have begun when they might begin what regions might be most affected or How easily animals plants and humans might adapt. Amid All the uncertainty fear of climate changes has triggered a warm War just As the cold War is ending. This new political and economic conflict has set Rich nations against poor the industrialized North against the developing South and just about everyone against the United states a the largest single emitter of Carbon dioxide. Quot Carbon dioxide emitted anywhere contributes to climate change everywhere Quot said Sandra Postel vice president for research at the private world watch Institute. Quot the most practical Way to Deal with it is cooperatively. But so far it has t been  instead an epic diplomatic Battle is being played out As officials of More than 170 nations prepare for the United nations Earth Summit in Brazil in june. The prelude to the Summit in Rio de Janeiro has been As tempestuous As a tropical storm with Many analysts deeply pessimistic about the chances for a meaningful treaty on reversing the steady atmospheric buildup of the gases produced by human Industry. Quot i think Rio is going to be an absolute horrific Flop Quot said Pamela Wexler a research analyst at the University of Maryland Center for global change. The difficulties have been economic As much As scientific. . Officials fear that reducing Carbon dioxide emissions a using measures such As new fuel taxes that could affect every american a will Cost too much. Critics including officials of european nations say that without Concrete targets and timetables for reducing emissions Little will be accomplished. And with Only limited Progress on other Summit issues a such As How the Rich should help the poor pay for cleaner technology a the Success of the negotiations takes on More importance analysts said. Quot it really  the Ante on the climate Side Quot said Michael Oppenheimer a specialist on climate change for the environmental defense fund. Quot the question at Issue is whether we Are willing to take the first step Quot toward specific limits on Carbon dioxide emissions said Daniel Lashof describing the question facing the worlds nations. Lashof a former analyst for the Federal environmental Protection Agency is a senior scientist at the natural resources defense Council. So far the Bush administration has resisted targets and timetables for stopping the rapid growth of Carbon dioxide emissions As demanded by european nations instead the White House wants each nation to draft its own Quot climate action plan Quot with flexible goals that do not focus solely on Carbon dioxide. The . Plan would rely on such Energy conservation Steps As making factory lighting More efficient administration officials Call these Quot no regrets Quot measures because they would make economic sense even if global warming never happens. But the 12-nation european Community insists that treaty nations pledge at a minimum that by the end of the decade Carbon dioxide emissions will be stabilized at 1930 Levels even if that requires Strong measures such As special taxes on natural Gas Oil and Coal. Without a fundamental change in the . Approach says Peter Berle president of the National Audubon society the Earth Summit is heading for what he Calls a Quot train wreck in  but . Officials say they remain optimistic about the prospects for a binding climate treaty at the Rio Summit. Informal talks by diplomats from 20 key nations got under Way last week in Paris and the final pre Summit round of forma negotiations on the climate treaty starts in new York City at the end of the month. President Bush has taken Little election year heat for his refusal so far to join the More than 60 Heads of state who have announced travel plans for Rio. Bush has indicated he will attend Only if an acceptable Deal is struck beforehand. Quot what i want to do Quot Bush said at a news conference last week Quot is see if we can to Hammer out consensus so you have a meeting that s viewed As positive. Instead of a major Harangue Down  White House officials say the differences Between the sides Are not As great As publicly portrayed. Quot it s like the Days of the cold War Quot said one senior White House official who asked not to be identified. Quot you Are in the end game of negotiating a very important treaty and you Don t announce you Are going to Moscow to sign it until you know what the language  played out on a Battlefield that knows no Borders climate conflicts have gripped the worlds nations before. Under the Montreal protocol drafted in 1987, More than 70 nations have committed themselves to sharply Cut use of chemicals called chlorofluorocarbons or rfcs that can destroy the Earth s Ozone layer. The United states became a prime mover although it also raised objections that led to compromises along the Way. The Ozone layer in the stratosphere 13 to 30 Miles up protects Earth from excessive ultraviolet Light which can cause skin cancer in people and damage to crops. Rfcs Are used in air conditioning refrigeration and manufacture of plastic foam. They also can be used As aerosol propellants although in the United states Thal use has been banned since 1978. As with global warming now the scientific understanding of Ozone depletion was in its infancy in 1987. But discovery of a seasonal thinning of Ozone Over the Antarctic a the so called Ozone Hole a prompted the whorls of a fingerprint some climatic features that might indicate Globe warming global  pattern scientists say continents would warm More then oceans and sub Arctic latitudes More than tropics in the Northern hemisphere. The lower atmosphere would warm while the stratosphere cooled. Auk huh watch Tapow water vapor would increase with the warming and intensify it by amplifying the effect of greenhouse gases. Moisture would Rise More in the tropics than in higher latitudes sea surface  the see surface temperature is expected to Rise fairly uniformly with greenhouse warming while naturally occurring temperature changes very More from one part of the Globe to another. Seasonality. The relative intensity of the seasons is expected to change with greenhouse warming. The warming effect would be More evident in the Winter than in the summer particularly it High latitudes. Not Quick action. In the Case of rfcs a which also act As heat trapping gases in the lower atmosphere a alternative chemicals were available so costs could be judged with some precision experts say. As it turned out the Ozone Case suggests How unpredictable matters can get when Public policy and evolving scientific research intersect. Early this year scientists found new hints that Ozone May be thinning in the Northern hemisphere quicker than expected a which bolsters the decision to act before All the evidence is in this new data has prompted the United states and some european nations to announce they would phase out rfcs by the beginning of 1996, rather than 2000 As called Lor in the treaty. A . Meeting that began last week in Geneva is aimed at revising the treaty accordingly. On the other hand scientists also recently calculated that the loss of Ozone in the upper atmosphere May help Cool the lower atmosphere in other words the same rfcs that contribute to global warming May also contribute indirectly to global Cooling. So the phaseout of rfcs May not decrease global warming As expected. This was a particular blow to the Bush administration which had hoped to rely on phasing out rfcs As a significant part of its plans to fight global warming in the end some analysts say the outcome of the Rio conference May be dictated by . Political concerns. Quot right now the administration is getting Zero heat on the environment from the democrats a said Wexler at the University of Maryland s Center for global change. Quot where is Bill Clinton screaming about the environment or whether Bush is going to Rio Quot both Clinton the Arkansas governor and former California gov. Jerry Brown have supported use of specific targets and timetables for reducing greenhouse gases in their Campaign statements. But global warming has not been a major Factor in the primary campaigns unless the Rio Summit receives a higher profile on the Campaign Trail Wexler and others said it remains Uncertain whether Bush or his advisers will feel any urgency about the upcoming Summit. A the window of Opportunity is closing Vety rapidly Quot said Berle of the Audubon society Quot and unless we seize it not Only have we done serious damage to what Progress is possible in Brazi but we will have also missed the Opportunity to have a substantial Impact on the future of the Globe and its environmental  Quot if we leave the Rio conference without targets and dates we should be Frank and say it was a failure Quot said Ken Collins a labor member of the British parliament who is chairman of the european parliaments committee on the environment Quot the real Issue with people now is economics Quot Collins said. Quot they want to know if  survive until next year so it s hard to get them to focus on what will happen to them in 50 years even though its important that something be done about it now. Campaign to slow global warming will hit pocketbooks by Dan Fagin new Day paint your roof White Trade in the Gas guzzler Plant a tree a and pull out your Wallet the worldwide Campaign to slow global warming and save the stratospheric Ozone layer is beginning and you re going to help pay for it. As diplomats huddle in preparation or the . Earth Summit set Lor Brazil in june scientists bureaucrats idealistic environmentalists and doom saying economists Are All trying to envision a world that shuns Ozone destroying chlorofluorocarbons or rfcs and spews much less Carbon dioxide a byproduct of burning Fossil fuels that is implicated in global warming it s a speculative exercise at Best. Scientists Are still arguing about the severity of the climate problem and the world s governments Are still lighting about what should be done and who should pay for it even costs Are hotly in dispute with some experts asserting massive investments in Energy efficiency ultimately will pay for themselves. Those arguments Are a Long Way from being resolved. But there is already ample evidence that in the United states where More Carbon dioxide and rfcs Are released than anywhere else even modest efforts would be Felt by Consumers in their cars and kitchens at the grocery store and the office and in virtually All other aspects of their lives. Quot we re talking about fundamentally uncharted territory with completely new ideas Quot said Dan Dudek a senior economist with the non profit environmental defense fund. Quot the whole game Here is to create the incentives and come up with the strategies to remake the  housing prices would be higher but Energy use lower. Drivers would go farther on a gallon of gasoline but pay More for it. Buying a refrigerator or building a skyscraper would Cost More but appliances would require less Energy to operate. And a network of Carrot and stick government programs would prod americans to reduce their Reliance on Oil. The first jarring impacts Are just around the Corner. Industry officials say president Bush s decision announced in february to phase out Csc production in the United states by the end of 1995 will probably Lead to some shortages and limited Price increases in products ranging from air conditioning to computer chips where rfcs Are widely used to clean circuits. Grocers freezers and chillers for office buildings will be m Short Supply at least initially and retrofitting broken Auto air conditioners with Csc substitutes would Cost Consumers $100 to $200 extra predicts Dupont corp., the biggest Csc manufacturer. The Speed and scope of other economic impacts depend on the Bush administration still resisting pressure from Western Europe and Japan to commit to a Rollback of Carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 Levels by the year 2000 a a move that in the United states would require a 50 percent Cut below anticipated total emissions. However even Bush s counteroffer a to meet the same goal through voluntary measures a would set the country on an unprecedented course. Unprecedented but not unfamiliar. Some ideas now under consideration to Cut Carbon dioxide emissions Are reminiscent of the Oil shocks of the 1970s, when gasoline lines stretched for blocks and alternative Energy research boomed. But there Are key differences. Supply is not a big Issue the global Oil glut will Likely continue for years. That s Why some Energy experts believe the transition away from Carbon dioxide and rfcs can be made with relatively Little pain by improving Energy efficiency and gradually moving toward fuels such As natural Gas lower in Carbon. Quot if we re successful and if environmentalists calculations and policies Are Correct there May not be too much of a noticeable difference Quot said Pamela Wexler of the Center for global change at the University of Maryland. Quot that a Why this is so different from what we were talking about with the Energy crisis of the 1970s. It s not a question of sitting in a cold dark room. It s using different Supply options and receiving the same  some european nations Are considering imposing a tax on the Carbon Content of fuels which would hit Coal particularly hard. Such a tax though Tricky to implement would be the most efficient Way to penalize Carbon use and the least expensive for the Economy As a whole Many economists believe. Quot the first thing to know is that under any of the scenarios Energy is going to be More expensive. But the Carbon tax is probably the Way that imposes the least possible mechanisms for warming warmer temperate Overall Burden on the Economy Quot said w. David Montgomery a Washington based Energy consultant and a former assistant director of the congressional budget office. But in the United states where gasoline prices Are about one fourth that they Are in Europe such a tax May prove politically impossible to implement. Quot i certainly done to see a Carbon tax in the offing unless or until the threat of warming seems much More catastrophic than it now seems to be Quot said Skol Koff who studies the politics of global warming. A tax of $120 per ton of Carbon which translates to about 30 cents per gallon of gasoline would be needed to reduce Energy use enough to stabilize Carbon dioxide emissions by the year 2000, the . Department of Commerce recently estimated. These economists Are blowing a Cooke beyond belief. Let s see one. No to Congress and and try to sell a Carbon tax Jude. The reality is that americans Don t like straight up a our face kinds of taxes. They prefer to have their taxes Biden and their environmental benefits certain instead of a Carbon tax Washington is Likely to embark  int decay would release caftan do oxide it warming would stimulate photosynthesis it the air. But Plant respiration would some Carbon dioxide from much More. Indented dam Iii iced Diberio More methane from thawing bogs source or. A pvt not said on a series of actions to Cut Carbon dioxide emissions by promoting Energy efficiency punishing waste and encouraging alternatives to Coal or Oil including increased use of electric cars. Most Are Likely to Lead to increases in product and Energy costs with the possibility of Long term payoffs by reducing Energy use Page 14 b the stars and stripes tuesday april 21, 1992 Geo engineers seek High tech solutions by Dan Fagin new Day thousands of mirrors in Earth orbit fleets of ships dumping powdered Iron into the Arctic Ocean. Huge dust Clouds blanketing the stratosphere. Super powerful lasers firing into the sky from mountaintops. If it All seems too far fetched to think about think again these and other so called Geo engineering proposals to fight effects of global warming and Ozone depletion May sound More Hollywood than Harvard but they Are being talked about by scientists Well within the mainstream of America s research establishment last year a National Academy of sciences report concluded that some of the proposals Are technically feasible and might actually be cheaper than drastically cutting emissions of Carbon dioxide and other gases that cause global warming. The panel stopped far Short of recommending that any of the Geo engineering schemes be implemented now citing uncertainty Over their effectiveness and potential Side effects. But by merely urging continued research the panel accelerated the debate Over the science and ethics of altering the Earth to accommodate pollution instead of vice versa. A there Are people Alt around who hate me and think it should never have been put in the report Quot said Robert Frosch who wrote the Geo engineering Section of the National Academy s global warming report and then persuaded his colleagues to endorse it. "1 done to know Why anybody should feel obligated to reduce Carbon dioxide if there Are better ways to do it Quot Frosch said. Quot when you Start making deep cuts you re talking about spending some real Money and changing the entire Economy. I done to understand Why we re so casual about tinkering with the whole Way people live on the Earth but not tinkering a Little further with the Way we influence the  a former director of Nasa Frosch is now a vice president of general motors in charge of environmental compliance research he has faced furious criticism not Only because successful Geo engineering would allow pm and other corporations to avoid cutting Carbon dioxide but also because some scientists believe his conclusions Are wildly optimistic. Quot in a gravely sceptical of the entire approach Quot said Robert Charlson a climatologist at the University of Washington at Seattle Quot it s hazardous because it produces in some people s minds a fooling that we Don t need to worry about climate change. It holds out the Promise that we might be Able to at the last minute produce a Geo engineering fix that will take us All out of the problem. That Hope is Likely to be  Charlson and Many of his colleagues say the world s climate is so Complex and so poorly understood that it would be impossible to predict the possible Side effects of various Geo engine ring ideas for example reflecting away incoming solar radiation by lifting huge amounts of aerosol particles into the stratosphere a either by balloon rocket or naval gun is the Geo engineering idea that has gotten the most attention because it imitates the natural process of Volcano. Quot i think of it As designer volcanic dust put up with Jules Verne methods Quot said Frosch. But huge dust Clouds while deflecting some of the incoming radiation that contributes to warming might also Speed the destruction of the protective Ozone layer by adding to the number of particles in the stratosphere Ozone is destroyed when chlorine atoms from chlorofluorocarbons Latch onto those particles. Blocking More radiation also might reduce the heat induced evaporation that makes rain leading to widespread drought. And dust Clouds would make the daytime sky look More Milky and sunsets More Brilliant burning Fulfur aboard ships would increase Cloud formation and Block out incoming radiation but it might also Lead to More acid ram which is damaging forests in Eastern Canada the Northeast United states and Europe the stars and stripes b Page 15