European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 7, 1993, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Thursday january 7,1993 commentary the stars and stripes Paige 15what can we learn from history s a year ago almost everyone was proclaiming democracy a Triumph and heralding Western european Unity and a major free Trade agreement at years end prospects for All three have Plum meted. In Early 1992, hardly anyone gave a thought to Bosnia and Herzegovina or Somalia. Within months they were called Sites of genocide and ignited dra. Matic debates about using Force for humanitarian ends in january 1992, few americans recognized the Arkansas governors name. Just 10 months later Bill Clinton was elected president. Events sometimes confound us because of honest miscalculation or Wishful thinking. Judgments counter judgments and Hope Clouds history. Such All too human ways explain our failure to look hard enough at obvious historical hurdles. Democrat has rarely fared Well against nationalism nor european Unity or world Trade against narrow National interests. A but almost yearly since world War i profound surprises have knocked us out of comfortable orbits. They come As bolts from the Blue beyond human capacity to Leslie Gelb predict. They Surprise us in whole the events themselves or in crucial part the precise when where and How. Unknown places like Bosnia and Somalia explode before our eyes and become symbols for far reaching new actions Ana policies. Obscure human comets like Clinton burst out of nowhere to reshape our lives. Surprise should no longer Surprise us. Yet does. And it sets us into a panic. We blame our leaders and lose Confidence in them. Especially since world War 1, our lives have been dominated by one form of Surprise or another. It was Clear that the great War would Lead to revolution in Russia and turmoil in postwar Germany. But no one could have predicted Lenin or Hitler. By 1941, it seemed Clear that Japan would attack the United states but not where or when. Later almost totally out of the Blue we witnessed the korean War Castro a emergence As a full fledged and Malvo Lent communist the overthrow of the Shah and the eruption of Iran into a virulent islamic state Iran a taking americans hostage the soviet Union s invasion of Afghanistan the Rise of Mikhail s. Gorbachev the dismantling of the soviet Empire and state and the reunification of Germany. And now Somalia and Bosnia. None of this is to say that reasoned policy and planning Are beyond our capacities certain leaders have shown the skill to see inevitable trends and plan ahead. In 1943, at the very height of hitlers successes in Europe and Japan a in Asia general of the army George c. Marshall summoned maj. Gen. John Hilldring the army a chief planner to his office. He gave Hilldring the seemingly absurd task of preparing military governments for Germany and Japan after Allied Conquest and occupation. The great wartime general saw clearly that Allied resources and technology ensured eventual Victory Over the Axis. In 1947, As Secretary of state Marshall once again looked facts in the Eye and saw a fundamentally weak and vulnerable Western Europe. To cure it he proposed a massive . Aid program on the condition that the europeans work together to make the plan viable. In the 1960s, most experts feared that As Many As 20 states would possess nuclear weapons in a decade. The United states took the Lead in a concerted Effort to head this off a and by and Large has done so. We can now just As clearly foresee the need for a concerted and focused Effort to help seed democracy in the states of the former soviet Union. We also know that the United nations has to be beefed up to Deal with future Bosnia and Soma Lias. Where the horizon is Clear planning can make a real difference. But we must also give Surprise its due. Tolstoy warned us in War and peace against politicians commentators and rattlers who accuse one another of things a for which no one could in fact have been  history is a Messy affair. We cannot Lan for the surprises that dominate its landscape. But we can expect surprises a and empathize with those who must pretend to ride these tidal Waves. A c tha now York to Mon somalian venture misguided mercy Mission the images of starving somalian children whose faces and eyes Are being ravaged by flies keep running through my mind. So any am i still not applauding lustily and with reservations the intervention of american troops to Rescue those children i do not argue with the Rev. Jesse Jackson who sees a laudable precedent Here of a . Government risking the lives of american men and women to save the lives of africans. That is a Colo Blind part of a a new world order that is unassailable. I cannot Scrooge up this american commitment by saying that we have no National Security interests in Somalia and therefore we ought not pay the billions of dollars that this operation will Cost. It May be that no people Ever gave a More genuine gift to another than in this a Mission of mercy into Somalia. My unease arises from the fact that it is not just a simple humanitarian operation in which our troops deliver Gruel porridge even a Turkey to a desert family that is being stalked by  United nations and the United states have political goals social agendas and arms control aspirations in this military operation and i done to know what those agendas Are where the goals coincide and where they will bring on costs and Griefs that we americans Carlt. Rowan delivery of bags of Rice and bushels of wheat just Long enough to put a Smidgen of meat on the Bones of pitiable children. Are the . And the . Going to make one grandstand gesture of food and medic my compassion and then say that neither can afford to finance the rebuilding of the economic infrastructure of this woeful nation and what about the political Agenda . Army Gen Colin Powell chairman of the joint chiefs of staff said this operation is a sort of like the cavalry coming to the Rescue straightening things out for a while and then letting the marshals come Back in to keep things under  this columnist can deplore the hypocrisy of those Guss amp Dror. _ Tolg Ideyl Vaj Oglo _ Lave not foreseen. It makes for great to when the .-. Forces deliver food into the darkest reaches of a terrible famine made worse by conscience less somalian warlords. But Somalia a economic catastrophe goes far beyond the who Call for . Marines to take guns away from peo file in Somalia when the Bush administration has reused to use the Law to take millions of guns out of the hands of mobsters hoodlums youth gangs and crazy people in los Angeles Washington d.c., and the myriad killing streets of America. Overriding All these reservations about this Mission of mercy is my concern that this foreign intervention and others to come May divert the Clinton administration almost irrevocably from priority attention to creating jobs halting the spiralling costs of medical care trying to thwart the curse of drug abuse making Good education available to All America s children. But i cannot escape the feeling that there Are some personal and political wrinkles around this somalian operation that we ought to know about now but no one is telling us. Quot c North America Syndicate