European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 14, 1993, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Thursday january 14, 1993 the stars and stripes 8 Page 3 in answer to by de Blanche the associated press Nicosia Cyprus a Saddam Hussein a ability to retaliate militarily against an Allied airstrike is extremely limited. But As the 1990 invasion of Kuwait showed a Saddam is capable of anything and As often As not flies in the face of orthodox military thinking a usually with catastrophic results. He has few military assets capable of penetrating the  allies defences in the persian Gulf in order to hit their naval and air forces. However he might Well lash out if he teels cornered. One Factor Likely to inhibit Baghdad is that any significant attempt to retaliate against the allies risks escalating the confrontation and provoking an even heavier Allied response. Saddam retains sizeable arsenals of anti aircraft missiles. Western officials also believe he possibly has As Many As 150 scud Type surface to surface missiles. Militarily Saddam is in no position to take on the americans and their allies again after his forces were severely mauled in the 1991 persian Gulf War. For one thing an iraqi military response would sex pose the military and economic infrastructure the iraqis live so painstakingly a and proudly rebuilt since Allied warplanes and missiles nearly flattened the country during the War. But faced with a worsening economic squeeze because of Vii years of . Sanctions the iraqi Leader maybe seeking a diversion to rally iraqis behind his beleaguered regime. Saddam also May be hoping to exploit divisions within the wartime coalition that Bush stitched together to liberate Kuwait. The Arab allies in particular fear that further pressure on Baghdad could Lead to the disintegration of Iraq with its volatile ethnic mix Saddam could try to Knock Down some Allied aircraft to avenge the iraqi Mig-25 fighter shot Down dec. 27 by a . Air Force f16 fighting Falcon Over the no Fly zone imposed last August on Southern Iraq. His air defences which accounted for nearly All the 41 Allied warplanes lost in the persian Gulf conflict remain potent despite War damage. But his severely depleted air Force Down to 150 to analysis 200 warplanes from a prewar strength of 700, is unlikely to fare any better against the High tech allies than it did in the Gulf War. Saddam could launch scuds against the allies air bases in Dhahran and Riyadh in saudi Arabia or at targets farther South along the Gulf. But that would leave him dangerously exposed to retaliation by Allied air Power with its precision guided a a smart weapons and Long Range Tomahawk cruise missiles aboard . Warships in the Gulf. These weapons wreaked havoc in Iraq during the Gulf War. Between Jan. 17 and feb. 26, 1991, Addam fired More than 80 scuds or the longer Range iraqi built variants a All notoriously inaccurate a at saudi Arabia and Israel. Some were destroyed by . Patriot anti missile missiles in flight. Many of the scuds that got through missed their targets. Postwar assessments show the allies failed to destroy any of Iraq s Mobile scud launchers despite intensive airstrikes and that Only 12 of the.30 fixed site launchers were knocked out despite claims of a High Success rate. A a a a a Quot a to counter the scud threat there Are now Patriot missile batteries in Kuwait saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Saddam backed off using chemical weapons during the War apparently fearing the allies might counter in kind or even respond with tactical nuclear weapons. Its unlikely hell play that card now either. Although Saddam lost about 3,000 tanks 1,860 armoured fighting vehicles and 2,150 artillery guns London a International Institute for strategic studies estimates he still has about 2,300 top line t-72 tanks lower Quality t-62, t-55 and t-54 tanks 2,900 armoured vehicles and More than 1,000 heavy guns. That a enough to suppress unrest inside Iraq but limits his offensive capabilities beyond iraqis Borders. The iraqi Navy was virtually wiped out during the War. Saddam could be tempted to use his Armor to Stab into Kuwait As he did in the 1990 invasion because the allies have virtually to land forces in the Region and the kuwaitis Are still rebuilding their military which was shattered during the War. But he runs the risk of massive air and missile retaliation for an attack that at Best would probably be Little More than a defiant gesture with limited Babjec lives. A punitive Allied airstrike could however trigger some Border skirmishes with the kuwaitis. Western diplomats in the Region Rule out the terrorist option primarily because Iraq is so friendless that such attacks would be extremely difficult to  Hunt for arms after casualties  Marine Chi. Quanta Perry 23, of Augusta ga., mourns a Comrade wednesday in Mogadishu. A Marine was killed during a firefight tuesday with somalis. Mogadishu Somalia a stung by bold somalian rebel attacks that inflicted the first two american military casualties . Forces killed one gunman wednesday As nervous marines patrolled Lawless Mogadishu in search of weapons. A somalian sniper fired three shots at a Marine patrol wounding a . Navy medic wednesday afternoon less than a Day after a Marine was killed in a firefight near the Airport. Later marines searching for a weapons Cache inside a building near the a see related stories on Page 10 tonal theater shot to death a somali who threatened them with a heavy machine gun. Automatic weapons fire crackled on the streets of the capital wednesday night. At checkpoints marines appeared More nervous and imposed stricter Security. Some directed their anger at somalis. A a lot of people Arentt going to like somalis even though some arc innocent a said Lance Chi. Jesse do Guzman 21, of san Jose Calif. A you Start looking at them differently. It just gets you mad inside but you have to hold it  Marine col. Michael a a acc said at a news conference that the casualties would not result in any changes in military operations. He said . Forces would continue to step up their patrols and searches for weapons. A because we have reduced the number of weapons on the Street we have put some of these militia individuals out of business. They Are no longer Able to extort on their Security rackets a Hagee said. A a it a still a dangerous place but. Based on when we came ashore a Little Over 30 Days ago it is a much safer  the first marines landed dec. 9, starting the International operation to end two years of clan fighting and banditry and get food to Somalia a famine stricken people. Army it. Col. Steve Ritter said More than 33,000 service members from 20 nations Are in Somalia including 22,000 americans. Hagee said it was Loo Early to Tell if the attacks responsible for the american Ca Saul ties represented any kind of organized resistance by the somalian gangs. The tuesday night ambush that killed Marine pfc. Domingo Arroyo 21, of Elizabcth n.j., and the sniper attack that wounded the medic followed the most ambitious american Effort to disarm somalis in Mogadishu. Since sunday marines have rounded up 16 truckloads of weapons and ammunition in sweeps of Pun markets and storehouses. The haul included 265 rifles and 55 machine guns. American troops also discovered a Complex of 15 underground bunkers just Northeast of the City wednesday stocked with what a acc called a a great Deal of  a we have just gotten started on Mogadishu. We re Clearing out the rear now. I have characterized Mogadishu As our sternest Challenge Quot said maj. Gen. Charles e. Wilhelm the Marine commander in Somalia. The ambush that killed Arroyo was the first on an american foot patrol and the boldest attack on . Troops a it was a fierce firefight a said Hagee who said a a significant number of somalian gunmen opened fire on the 11-Man night patrol a exactly How Many i Don t know. But at one Point they had More firepower than we did a he said. He said the squad Leader correctly withdrew to a rally Point found one Marine was missing and called for re info re ments. A was soon As he had enough combat Power he went Back in and got him a Hagee said. He said Arroyo was dead on arrival at the military Hospital. The wounded Navy medic whose name was being withheld until his family could be notified was in stable condition with a Bullet wound in the left shoulder. He was hit by a sniper while on a patrol just South of the old soccer stadium in Northern Mogadishu which is a Camp for about 1,000 troops. An army civilian employee was killed last month when a vehicle in which he was Riding hit an anti tank mine in Western Somalia. Another Marine was wounded by Friendly fire. Angry marines tightened Security at the an porn wednesday and were More aggressive at checkpoints