European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 16, 1993, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Saturday january 16, 1993 i commentary the stars and stripes Page 15 Sadda m maybe planning to make larger move Good. The . And friends finally rebuked Saddam Hussein in language he seems to comprehend. But Bill Clinton should not expect that the joint air attack a a rather modest one at that a will end the iraqi badman s insults and evasions of  resolutions nor will these rare rebukes dissuade Saddam from continuing cat and mouse games thus diddling and distracting the new president As he has the outgoing one. Worse Saddam May now be ready to go beyond marginal provocations and present Clinton with a fiendishly Tough and intricate Choice Between another War and  Saddam s next military Challenge might be far More audacious than the Mosquito bites he has been taking from president Bush s hide but far less threatening than his con 2uest of Kuwait. A a a a Hinton would have to choose Between doing nothing which would be politically unthinkable and hitting Back with an at tack smaller than desert storm yet much larger than wednesday s slap and therefore much harder to orchestrate. Or More Likely Saddam could concoct a Quot peace and disarmament package Quot pledging concessions deeper than anything he Ever offered to Bush if the United states accepts his authority Over All  could resist the bait but that would anger allies now searching to escape the present Box. Or he could bite and negotiate which would restore Saddam a legitimacy. Maybe these scenarios give Saddam too much credit. Perhaps he is just a megalomaniac Al Jerk whose Onty purpose in violating . Restrictions in recent weeks has been to irritate his departing arc Nemesis George Bush a even at the Cost of a . Retaliatory blow. Administration experts however see Domestic political reasons for sad Leslie Gelb dams madness. They say he has been tweaking Bush recently to show iraqis he is still Boss and to keep his military Busy with external threats. But How does Saddam look Strong when the . Bombs his forces with impunity. Others in the administration say that Saddam knew what was in store for him but elected to take the punishment anyway to test Bill Clinton a Mettle and Chip away at . Authority in Iraq. This makes Little sense if he wanted to test Clinton Why did he provoke George Bush and As Saddam surely knew Bush had to respond with Force Saddam must also appreciate that the Bush action established a Benchmark that Clinton must equal or watch his presidency dwindle. All of which suggests that Saddam May  Era All of Kuwait. Perhaps he has Learned that had he simply settled for the Northern kuwaiti oilfields the West might merely have grumbled and looked away. So next time he might pose a lesser Challenge. He could launch a ground attack against the kurd in the North or the shiites in the South. Western Airpower alone would be unable to Stop these attacks. Western ground troops would be heeded. And that might prove very difficult to arrange As Saddam Well knows. If Force seems too risky As it probably Doe Saddam could float a sweetened peace proposal. He could accept . Demands to freely inspect and dismantle his weapons of mass destruction and to earmark most iraqi Oil proceeds for War reparations and pledge greater of Quot a autonomy for kurd and shiites. In re turn he could ask Quot Only Quot for . Recognition of Baghdad s authority Over All Iraq. The Clinton team has already got  sat on a Waul ten such feelers. Saddam May reckon even now that such War of peace games could prove Good gambles Western will to fight a second major War against Iraq is eroding. Not Only Bill Clinton but every other Western Leader wants to concentrate on Domestic problems. The resistance of Western and Arab leaders to a Quot peace Quot with Iraq is also waning increasingly they see Iran As the greater future threat and Are More willing to contemplate Iraq s reconstruction As a Buffer to Iran. Whatever Saddam chooses new bold moves or the piddling old ones Clinton must not permit him to retain the initiative. To take it away to avoid the persistent pattern of reacting to Saddam s every whim and Challenge the new president must forge a policy that anticipates and Heads off trouble. Compared with Bush a it must Promise swifter and firmer punishment a tighter economic embargo and a diplomatic track with imagination. C the now Yolk tar Tiloi Bush stand on Iraq May save Clinton trouble on the surface George Bush a decision to retaliate against Saddam Hussein seems to create unsought complications for another old rival Bill Clinton who has vowed to turn his focus from foreign affairs to the . Economy after he takes office wednesday. In reality however the president May have done Clinton a great favor. As an untested commander in chief Clinton and his new team of advisers would have had to plow entirely new ground in marshalling any strike against Iraq. Now if Saddam keeps up his provocations it will be possible for president Clinton to note that . Policy is merely being carried Over from one administration to the next the main goal for Bush Only a week from being fired from his Job by the vote of the american people was to repay Saddam whose people Lack the right to summon a new Leader. The iraqi president had put out the word that it was he who had a a won the persian Gulf War even though his forces had been routed from the skies and in the Field by a 29-nation coalition. Now his foes Saddam said were for the most part either gone from the world stage or like Andrew j. Glass Bush about to leave a White he still ruled with a hard fist in Baghdad. Acting through the United nations the american led coalition had shackled Saddam with a Chain of embargoes inspectors and zones of exclusion a All As the Price of the 1991 cease fire. Saddam however kept tugging at his Bonds testing again and again his enemies resolve to pen him in. Under the Odd political math of the Middle East these ongoing probes from the Baghdad Bunker had begun to make an Impact on Arab opinion which tends to place much weight on Force and face. But As Saddam Learned on wednesday Bush had been tuned in As Well even As ., British and French jets armed their weapons systems in the Gulf Nizar Hardoon Iraq s smooth talking . Envoy worked the corridors in new York asserting that All the problems could easily be worked out with a bit More diplomacy. But by then it was too late. The wednesday air attack said Marlin Fitzwater the presidential spokesman Quot provided a very Strong warning and Mes Sage to Saddam Hussein that we Are prepared to enforce the , resolutions that we have the capability to do that again if  Fitzwater did not say so the strike and the threat of More to come were also aimed at raising the political Ante. A top Bush aide said that when the iraqi military sees that its assets Are going Down the Drain by dint of Saddam a adventurism they might topple him from Job the Bush astr know has swept Power. This Hope had also been raised in vain when the War ended. Bush and James a Baker i his former Secretary of state had once wooed Saddam with . Grain credits and valuable military intelligence a even As the israelis and others warned that he was building a nuclear Arsenal to menace the Middle East. The . Pro Saddam policy fell in ashes when Saddam s tanks rolled into Kuwait on aug. 1, 1990. The Ever Ner Vous kuwaitis will now get a battalion sized . Force As insurance against the Prospect of yet another iraqi invasion since the Days of the crusaders acts of revenge have often stoked the political furnaces of the Middle East. So to some extent Bush a action is bound to be seen in the Arab world As a kind of due Bill for Saddam a Many taunts. On the other hand Saddam plays this game All too Well. He makes it Plain that the americans and their allies so far at least have done Little to shelter Muslim Quot Brothers Quot in Bosnia against serb onslaughts. He notes that there Wasny to much talk of Quot human rights Quot in the West after the israelis left More than 400 palestinians stranded in a no Many a land when Lebanon refused to take them in. These issues will remain. They will no doubt be joined by Many others. But in a week they will All be Bill Clinton s problems. George Bush departs sword in hand. C Cox new so Vic. The opinion in the column and cartoon on thl pm apr it thou of the author and a in naw a to a con Kjor dry pro mating the trim of to sur and strip or the unit a Sut