European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - December 18, 1993, Darmstadt, Hesse Saturday december 18, 1993 commentary the stars and stripes Page 13party differences fade As crime marches on William f. Buckley i the upturn in the Economy is bringing on demo cratic optimism. To be sure that optimism depends heavily on a continuing Rise in Prosperity a which however does tend to happen at the end of business cycles. There is always the possibility that this recovery will bump into the higher tax rates and find itself with out the strength to hurdle them along with the progressive Bur Den of entitlement spending. And of course it is also possible that a foreign policy trajectory that took us from Bosnia to so Malia to Haiti might derail Bill Clinton. But on. The Assumption that Fidel Castro does no to conquer Miami before 1996, there probably Isnit too much harm the president can do now that circumstances appear to have forced him to Retreat from any image of a new world order in which we specify How much democracy and human rights we will tolerate around the Globe. A that is being said is that both in 1994 and two ears later the big Issue will be crime. Those of us who Lave stormed Over crime for 30 years Are sceptical not on the question whether crime is a burning Issue. It is. It is unquestionably the most taxing social problem of our time and also the most humiliating. But it is unlikely that crime will determine which party prevails for the simple reason that there Isnit a distinct difference in the solutions being advanced by the contending parties. Back in the Days of Earl Warren when the supreme court was discovering a fresh right of defendants and criminals every month or two the republicans could fume and froth Over a court whose rulings were regularly celebrated by democratic liberals. But time has weathered the question and although there is still plenty of room to heighten the chances of the prosecution to Send obviously guilty people off to jail the refinements being argued about e.g., How far should Miranda go in protecting a defendant done to lend themselves to political polarization. Where the republicans really might have an opening is in the area of drugs. The difficulty Here is that the republicans Are associated with the no permissive division of sentiment. One associates tree love free condoms pornography Gay rights and the rest of it with the democratic party. The Republican party is traditionally on the austere Side of the question. For that reason it would be difficult for the gop suddenly to discover what is manifestly the Case. To take just marijuana the time devoted to tracking Down arresting and then trying marijuana users is perhaps the greatest exercise in lost time in contemporary activity. In Trie last two years approximately 750?000 arrests were made in our mad quixotic Effort to stamp out marijuana. What this adds up to is millions of police hours spent on Bootlegs missions millions of hours of court time wasted and millions of months in jail using up space sorely needed to contain people who cant wait to get out in order to resume mugging and murdering. The Issue of gun control is not Likely to separate the parties significantly. The Brady Law May be an emancipation proclamation from the rigidities of the National Rifle association but it Isnit much More than that. Needless to say the Brady Law is not going to inconvenience the criminal. He either has a gun already or else will steal one of the Hundred million lying around if he is preparing to commit his first crime a and All criminals were once virgins a then he can wait the five Days knowing that the firearm dealer s computer Check won t trip him up As a convicted Felon. Beyond the Brady Law the farthest any party is Likely to go is in the direction taken years ago by Massachusetts handguns arc of if kept in your Home or office but if caught on you anywhere else you Are supposed to go to jail. The trouble with this Law in t the Law it is the abandon with which it is violated. The schoolchildren in new York City who take along a pistol whether to show off or to defend themselves Are As amused by the Law that grits its Teeth so ineffectually As the criminals who cruise with their guns in their pocket. It is an Index of the desperation of the gun controllers that they give us such a surrealism As new York sen. Daniel p. Moynihan s proposal that bullets should be sold for a thousand dollars each or whatever which suggests a revival not of Law and order but of Gilbert amp Sullivan. Send the three timer to prison for life segregate the violent teen agers until they grow up and wait for marijuana Reform until we All grow up. ,. C Unk fat Pitt s hints of rate increases Don t make sense the inflation Outlook is arguably More favourable than its been in a Why does the Federal Reserve keep putting out hints that its about to apply the brakes at a time when the need is for expansion and jobs they now As Well As you or i do that world Oil prices have declined steeply and that open seems incapable of acting to raise them. They know that crude prices have fallen $3 a barrel in the last two months and that each of these dollars shaves the Domestic annual inflation rate by about 0.3 percentage Points. They can read the papers so they know that wholesale prices in november were unchanged after falling 0.2 percent in october and that consumer prices in november Rose a modest 0.2 percent it can to be news to the fed that the ongoing wholesale inflation rate which was running at close to a 5 percent annual rate in 1990, is now Down about As close to Zero As it can get that medical care costs have been moderating for nearly a year now. You have to go Back 30 years to the Early Johnson administration to find a More stable Price climate. Nor can it have escaped the fed that wage pressures Are minimal and that enough . Workers Are scared witless of being downsized into joblessness to keep wage costs depressed for some time to come. It they know the extent to which increased foreign Competition from hungry suppliers in the severely depressed markets of Europe and Japan is keeping on us. Domestic Robert Reno downward pressure prices. They Are aware of the cultural changes in retail markets that have sent Consumers reaching for generic and store brands caused them to discover their often Superior Quality and robbed the major Brand name manufacturers of their traditional ability to dictate supermarket prices almost at will it May c9ten have gotten through to the fed that downsizing Cost cutting and manufacturing efficiencies have replaced Price increases As the newly fashionable Way for major corporations to maximize profits. Yes the Federal Reserve Board knows All this and still its vice chairman David Mullins was yakking away last week that a Early warning signs of resurgent inflation Are a twitching or starting to this sort of language coming from a member of the fed is clearly designed to soften us up for a round of interest rate increases some time in the coming year. What you have to understand is the depth of the conservatism that now prevails at the fed and the mindset of these people which even As some of us see them As unnecessarily nervous nellies drives them to see themselves As the Only thing standing Between All of us and a new Price spiral such As the brutal one that lasted from 1965 to 1982. But there Are in addition to All those listed above two compelling reasons to distrust their fears. In the last bout with double digit inflation two events towered Over All others As causative factors. One was the Vietnam War and Lyndon b. Johnson a initial decision to fight it on credit. The other was the Oil Price shocks enforced by open. Both were highly unusual inflationary events that happened to come on top of each other. And there is nothing in the present world or Domestic Outlook to suggest anything similarly inflationary is about to happen. Ltd new Day
