European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 18, 1994, Darmstadt, Hesse Tuesday january 18, 1994 commentary the stars and stripes Page 13 president weakened by reluctance to intervene behind All foreign policy there lurks or ought to Lurk careful political calculation. What the folks at Home will not support the travelling potentate can not afford to Promise. So it was with president Clinton last week on his Maiden voyage to Europe As the Leader of the Atlantic Alliance. Hav ing seen How quickly american opinion turned sour when the body of an Ameri can Serviceman was dragged through. The streets of Mogadi-4 Shii to be duly photographed and filmed Clin ton is reluctant to make Small com . Apple fitments wit Ness the turning Back of an american troop ship bound for Haiti let alone big dangerous ones. Clinton therefore made no bold move on Bosnia and Herzegovina. He issued no ultimatum to the combat ants do this or we will do that. Instead he and the allies threatened yet again As they did to no great effect last August to use air strikes at Sarajevo but Only under certain conditions and not very soon at that. They added Tula and Srebrenick to the possible target list but Only pending yet another study of feasibility and suitability. Clinton resisted likewise pres sures from the Eastern europeans for full membership in the North Atlantic treaty organization obliging them to accept instead the partnership for peace a Little brother status that they did not much like. One reason is the sensitivity of the russians. For the moment at least Clin ton has Given a much higher priority to avoiding offence to the frail forces of re form in Moscow than to strengthening ties to the formerly oppressed Peoples of the former satellite states who once occupied such a special place in Washington s heart. That reflects the influence of Strobe Talbott the expert on Russia who acc gets to has come to dominate this administration s strategic thinking on Europe. But another reason is what membership in nato Means. It is at Bottom a military Alliance and its members agree to come to the Aid of each other if at tacked. Expansion would mean the United states was prepared to commit troops to defend Polana or the czech Republic and possibly More recent membership applicants such As Lithuania or Roma Nia if they were attacked. Britain s empty guarantees to Poland on the eve of world War ii May have been on the mind of British foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd when he asked the Pivotal question last month Are the . Congress the House of commons the French Assembly the German bundestag solemnly ready to guarantee with the lives of their citizens the frontiers of say Slovakia if not or not yet then it would be a deceit to pretend Clinton docs not think so at least not now and the mood of the country and the Senate would seem to Bear him was elected by a country eager to focus on its own problems not those of the rest of the world and he has done Little to urge it to look abroad except interns of economic self interest. Even if the will were there the Means Are not. The 100,000 american troops Clinton has promised to leave in Europe no matter what would certainly not suffice to halt any serious manifesta Tion of russian expansionism. Dollars Are scarce and getting scarcer for the most effective thing for us an american official said is to try to protect Eastern Europe by encouraging anti imperialist democratic tendencies in Russia. The problem is that the United states or any other outside Power has Only very limited influence Over events in c Tho new York times Clinton Summit cemented imports the complaints against continued . Participation in european affairs seem otherworldly in the Light of the developments in Bill Clinton s first euro Pean that it is the trademark of Summit meetings that the future is sunlight and roses. With one or two exceptions even Summit meetings Between the Ameri can president and the soviet emperor were Given a re assuring although reversals Are not inconceivable Clinton has concluded a desirable Accord and an american presence was All but indispensable in bringing about such an , first at the vulnerabilities. We Are reminded that what is approved by president Leonid m. Kravchuk of Ukraine is not necessarily approved by his parliament and that therefore when the time comes to implement the disarming of the 1,800 nuclear missiles the parliament May hold indeed a ukrainian parliamentarian with a Short historical memory let alone a Long one might reason that whereas 1,800 missiles Are entirely redundant for any purpose to which missiles might prove use Ful that would not be so with a few missiles. And of course there is Only one conceivable use to which a half dozen missiles might be put which is to deter a russian historical eagerness of Russia to in corporate Ukraine is very nearly genetic and the threats of Vladimir v. A Mirinovsky Are no smiling mat Ter for the ukrainians. The Baltic nations which or. Z has also promised to re Annex Are also understandably apprehensive though they have a longer record of in dependence from Moscow than Kiev. The dissenter might promote a movement to give Boris n Yeltsin and Clinton 99.99 percent of what they want but hold Back those half dozen missiles to guard against any reinvigoration of the old russian appetite to spread its wings Over great hunks of Europe. And of course the Promise that Clinton has extracted from Yeltsin never to invade Ukraine has got to be the stuff of diplomatic operetta. One does t need pledges not to invade from nations that Aren t going to in Vade. We have gone a Long time since pledging to Switzerland not to wage War against it. A Promise by the Yeltsin government is Fine for Ukraine for As Long As there is a Yeltsin government. If a a Mirinovsky government were to come to Power the historical pledge not to invade Ukraine could line the Walls of diplomatic museums that Fea Ture such souvenirs As the hit Ler Stalin pact. But the fact is that we have got something that elementary self concern very much desires namely the prospective elimination of More missiles than would be necessary to destroy every City in the United states. These survivors of the cold War we Are offering $1 billion and other sweetmeats to demobilize. If it should happen that the ukrainian parliament insists on retaining a Rainy Day Supply these would be reprogrammed to aim to the East not to the West. Now on the matter of membership in nato the head bumps into reality. The formal desire of the four Eastern european countries to join nato is to seek the Protection of a body that justified itself brilliantly when the Warsaw pact was the adversary. William f. Buckley but no current member of nato or prospective member needs Protection except against Russia. The Point is not made in formal statements by euro Pean statesmen but it is widely accepted than any Alli Ance in order to survive has got to have a purpose and that purpose takes life in response to pressure. The Southeast Asia treaty organization in the Pacific began to decompose when in 1975, we submitted to the Conquest of South Vietnam by the North and sub sequently idled while Laos was made a satellite and Cambodia ravaged. One act might have resuscitated nato but this nato s governors declined to execute. What happened simultaneously was 1 the evanescence of . Authority Over nato with the end of the cold War and 2 a failure by Europe to discern a strategic connection Between european health and such civil War As rages in former Yugoslavia. If two years ago the nato Powers had firmly inter ceded in Yugoslavia on the grounds that Continental housekeeping excluded genocidal subdivisions nato might have achieved a fresh Raison d etre. As it is left powerless and amoral it is mostly a strategic schematic a leftover from an Early map maker no longer defining actual strategic frontiers. What is Likely to happen is that the Eastern euro Pean countries that crave membership in nato will get it at about the time Moscow recognizes that membership in nato does t mean anything. Unless of course or. Z comes to Power in which Case we All merrily rearm. C Universal Pross Syndicate
