European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - May 17, 1994, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Tuesday May 17, 1994 commentary the stars and stripes Page 13 Stephens. Rosenfeld who Gan look at some of the exciting things that Are happening in the world without wondering u there is not a Way to capture the essence of what is unfolding in South Africa and to a lesser but still considerable extent in Israel and the new Palestine a to bottle it and to inject this elixir into the disruptions and disputes that Burden american foreign policy in other locations the trick is to think clearly about what brings Progress in some places and denies it in others. There Are Many elements of course and they emerge. In different configurations leadership is always Central. South africans have it in High order israelis and palestinians in the upper Middle Range. Timing can make the difference. Luck counts. But what matters most i have come to think is to have a legitimate consensus goal that however difficult to attain would satisfy most of the key constituencies. The goal must have a grounding in political reality but at the same time a link with a higher value Laden vision. Otherwise it will not attract the requisite diverse approval High and Low. The goal must also be something that whatever its flaws is arguably better than any feasible alternative. Otherwise the parties and their friends May Drift toward infeasible alternatives. These usually involve the unbalanced embrace of a principle like self determination or nationalism which is worthy but inconsistent with a competing and no less worthy principle like nationalism or self determination. This is the formula for conflict. South Africa has had a Broad legitimate consensus goal or More precisely its White minority finally came to such a goal after years of blindness tempered finally by bold introspection South Africa decided to become a multiracial democratic state. The israelis and palestinians though they May not yet All grasp it also have arrived at such a goal to coexist As parallel states. Having in mind a decent and publicly supported ending Point is what makes it possible for the parties to impart crucial intellectual and political discipline to their policies and their politics along the Way. Having an ending Point also offers a place of entry for Friendly practical intervention by outside governments and agencies. Contrast this positive pattern to the disarray evident in Haiti and Bosnia. In Haiti the parties including the elected president and the military thugs who wont let him come Home Are hopelessly Distant and disinclined to Compromise. At one Point there was an american strategy for creating a political base that would Bridge the Gap but president Clinton under political fire let it go. Whether he is commissioning his new Man for Haiti to pick up the pieces of the old strategy with suitable cosmetic changes or whether he has nailed himself into a Corner from which there is no escape except his own a a Grenada a an invasion meant to be Quick and easy a is the question of the hour. A a 1 a Quot Quot a Quot in Bosnia a similarly dreadful Zero sum game Gap currently separates what the serbs want from what the muslims want territorially and politically. At this moment the United states is being pressed by its european allies to do the heavy leaning on both serbs and muslims that offers what faint Chance there is at least to Settle the conflict Down and to prevent it from worsening the Clinton team is resisting. It has taken up a position in tentative emotional support of the muslims but without either signing on to their More ambitious goals to restore something like Bosnia a prewar status or coming out unequivocally in favor of limiting them. In crises such of Haiti and Bosnia where the prospects of Domestic consensus seem so Barren the outsiders if they Are to be serious a must first decide whether the outcome is important enough to them to enter the lists and try to make a difference. Then they have to decide what outcome to support and How to support it. In both Haiti and Bosnia the Clinton administration against its initial inclination has found itself pulled into the first stage of engaging. But the administration has still not worked its Way through the second stage of composing a coherent policy. In both places this is the right moment to explore the consensus strategy followed in South Africa and the Middle East. Its not too late. C washing on Posl choices for 1996 race too obscure to Handicap the question is put to you obsessively. What about 1996? it Isnit so that the reason for it is the apparent vulnerability of Bill Clinton. The question seems to command attention without any particular regard to the betting Odds on the race itself. In 1936 and again in 1940, the question was whom would the republicans nominate for president As though it greatly mattered Given that running against fran Din Roosevelt became something like running against Queen Victoria. It appease the curiosity not at All to say that one can never Tell what will happen in new Hampshire. The response of the curious to that is a Tell us what Wii happen in new Hampshire a you attempt a few historical reminders. Did you know you say that in january 1972, 2 percent of the american people knew who George Mcgovern was seven months later he was nominated for president by the democratic party. Did you know that in january 1976, 3 percent of the american people had Ever heard the name of Jimmy Carter ten months later he was elected president of the United states. Do you remember Phil Crane no Well Phil Crane was a and still is a a congressman from Illinois. Back in 1980, he had already served five terms. Now Phil Crane resolved in 1980 to run for president. What were his qualifications Well he is Hollywood Quality Good looking. He has a . He is a Superb Public speaker. He is married to a very Beautiful woman. And they have eight children. And How did he make out in the new Hampshire primary he got fewer votes than Lyndon Larouche am i Boring you Well too bad. You began it. Look Back at Richard Nixon. Were his relative qualifications for High office overwhelming of so his big break was when Dwight Eisenhower picked him for vice president in 1952. That placed him in the big time and arguably made it hard for the gop to pass him by As a presidential candidate in 1960. And remember in those Days the primaries did no to amount to All that much. The party leaders decided who would be the candidate unless the contestants were very Well matched the Strong elements of the party opposed to each others had been the Case when Eisenhower contended with sen. Robert Taft. So Nixon gets picked a and he loses. Something of a stigma to lose a presidential election. William Jennings Bryan was Given three cracks at it Over the turn of the Century by the democrats. But that is unusual. William f. Buckley then on top of losing a presidential election Richard Nixon was beaten ignominiously in his own state in 1962. If Ever a politician was through Nixon was through. And then after letting Barry Goldwater go by in 1964, Nixon decided he would run for president in 1968 and started campaigning for the primaries. In his career he contended in 41 primaries. He won 40. An unparalleled performance. Why did he win because he was like Winston Churchill a spellbinder on the stump because like Charles de Gaulle he radiated Charisma because like Konrad Adenauer he was unchallengeable As godfather of his country no. And nobody knows to this Day what exactly it was that caused this passion Between Republican primary voters and Richard Nixon. The lesson from this is if we do not know what brought on that aberration How do we know what will bring on something Akin to it in 1996? is it absolutely predictable How Jack Kemp will do with the voters will they swoon before him As they did in Erie county n.y.? perhaps so but this will be because they had discovered each other since 1988 when new Hampshire turned him Down. How would gov. William Weld of Massachusetts fare do we examine this question by asking How would the voters of new Hampshire react to a governor who is conservative on fiscal issues latitudinal Ian on social issues the answer is we do not know. It becomes tiresome after a while the reiteration of ones ignorance in such matters. On the other hand it is this ignorance that makes the game All the More glamorous and impenetrable. There is a great Deal to be said for the British system where questions of party Leader Are decided by the vote not of new Hampshire but of elected members of your own party. Even there there is suspense. But the sovereignty of a vote that All you need do to exercise it is reach the age of 18 has its  versa press