European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - December 9, 1994, Darmstadt, Hesse                                December 9, 1994 commentary the stars and stripes crisis coming of age for America Davids. Broder one of them is the lamest of lame ducks the other a smasher of stereotypes. But today sen. Bob Kerrey the iconoclastic Nebraska Democrat and sen. John Danforth the Republican from Missouri who is retiring voluntarily at the end of this year Are going to try to change the National debate on entitlements and budget deficits. Kerrey the chairman of the bipartisan commission on entitlement and tax Reform and Danforth the vice chairman will Challenge the other 29 commis Quot Sion members a and implicitly president Clinton and the leaders of the new Republican Congress a to lift their sights and address the sin file biggest financial and economic test coming in the next Century. That Challenge very simply is that unless policies Are changed soon the retirement and health needs of an aging population will by 2030 consume every single tax Dollar collected by the Federal govern ment. A a a a a if nothing is done before then keeping the annual deficit to the level where its expected to be Over the next five years relative to the Economy would require an 85 percent tax increase or a 50 percent Cut in every Federal program and entitlement. A a a i. Today Kerrey and Danforth will open a National debate by offering their own specific proposals to Avert that crisis for the next generation a a and incidentally provide a path to More secure retirement and health Protection for those now working. The commission will vote on its recommendations next thursday. When i talked to Kerrey and Danforth last weekend the details of their package were still being reworked. But it was Clear that they have decided to take the bold approach to their assignment. Both Are convinced that the present debate on taxes spending and benefits is too restricted. Clinton claims credit for a five year budget plan that will reduce deficits by a cumulative $500 billion. But by his own calculus the annual deficits will be rising again before those five years Are Over a and they will continue to increase unless further Steps Are taken. Meantime congressional republicans Are. Promoting a balanced budget constitutional amendment and promising unspecified Steps to eliminate the deficit by 2002. But even if that goal is achieved it would provide Only Brief Protection against the fiscal pressures that will come As the baby Boomers by the millions hit retirement age about 15 years from now. They will put immense and increasing strains on social Security and medicare. To Deal with that inevitable crunch Kerrey and Danforth Likely will propose raising the future social Security retirement age further Means testing of medicare benefits and a shift of tax policy to favor saving and investment Over current consumption. As one example a not necessarily the one to be proposed today a they might say that everyone Over 50. Today would be guaranteed existing social Security and medicare benefits but about 2005 co payments and deductibles on medicare would Start increasing and about 2010, the social Security retirement age would Start moving up to 70. That would allow the budget deficit to stay around 2 percent of the Gross Domestic product. For the millions of 21st-Century workers who want to retire before 70, they May Well suggest that social Security should be regarded mainly As a safety net program. The government then might encourage Young workers to save for their own retirement by cutting both payroll taxes and capital gains rates and providing incentives for iras and medical savings accounts. A whatever the exact policy mix Kerrey and Danforth see their role As challenging the commission members to come up with a set of reforms big enough to Avert the coming crisis. Kerrey also wants to let americans see that if such reforms Are made not Only can the budget problem be solved for the Long term but individuals can have far greater opportunities to provide for their own health care and retirement needs. A we have to personalize this a he said. Serious deficit cutters in Congress and the Clinton administration say they will Welcome the Kerrey Danforth Challenge because they understand that the big fix is needed and delay Only makes the inevitable changes More costly and painful. As Danforth re enters private life and Kerrey embarks on a second six year Senate term they Are remarkably free of Short term political restraints. They arc plotting a National Campaign a supported by a multimillion Dollar and budget and Broad bipartisan leadership a to a i quaint the american people with this coming fiscal crisis and to build Consen. Sus for taking Steps now to head it off. The american people say they want hard truths a and they want solutions. These Guys Are offering both. 1 c washing Lon Post is by Lawrence Freedman London observer service president Clinton has moved to reassure his allies that the bosnian crisis need not turn into a nato crisis. To be successful he needs a degree of stability in Bosnia where further deterioration will expose even More acutely the fault lines within the Alii Ance if this leads to pressure for withdrawal of . Forces from Bosnia then not Only would the Muslim Community be left worse off but nato planners also would face a nightmarish operation. A a even in relatively benign and thus unlikely conditions an evacuation would require 30,000 to 40,000 combat troops to extract the . Soldiers. A ragged Retreat would do great damage to the Alliance especially if triggered by american demands for tougher action. R the Clinton administration is As desperate to avoid blame for forcing the United nations to withdraw As Tor contributing to the defeat of the bosnian government. As All parties including the serbs Are reluctant to see the . Forced out some local deals May be cobbled together to Calm matters if Only temporarily. Even then images of a hapless nato will linger Likely to be reinforced every time fighting flares up. Attention has been focused on Senate Republican Leader Robert Doles threats later recanted to seek . Disengagement from nato. J3ut the loss of european Confidence in american judgment is just As important. The two closest nato allies have been diminished in each others eyes. The americans see the British As the most articulate exponents of appeasement the British see the americans As risking everybody a troops but their own in a dash for the moral High ground. The United states still expects to take the Lead in defining the policies of the West but is increasingly reluctant to devote resources to this task. It wants a risk free foreign policy. A a with republicans in charge of Congress there is a Prospect of Washington becoming immobilized the rhetoric will become stronger As the actions become weaker. The republicans Are probably More interested in gunning for the United nations than nato but the administration could find itself inhibited by Congress instinctive distrust of multilateralism and a reluctance to spend Money or sacrifice american lives on behalf of foreigners. When the business of nato was to deter an attack by the Warsaw pact the supreme test of Alliance cohesion never appeared. To be truly imminent and inertia was a perfectly adequate strategy. The Basic requirement was to use the strength of one superpower to balance that of the other. Now the big threat May have gone away but around the Periphery of Western Europe from the Baltic to the Balkans and across to North Africa there can be found conflicts with severe implications for nato countries. While the most appropriate measures to Deal with these conflicts May be economic and diplomatic and so Best coordinated through the european Union if military action is needed then there is no alternative but to use nato. The bosnian crisis May have exposed the alliances political failings but it has confirmed that there is no other organization capable of managing serious military operations. The persian Gulf War demonstrated the importance of nato in developing the common procedures and systems to Weld the armed forces of a number of nations into an effective fighting capability. There is no other organization suitable for bringing american Power and influence to Bear on european affairs. In the event of a Mega crisis perhaps involving Russia there could be nowhere else to turn but Washington. Meanwhile if the americans have any aspirations at All to continue to play a major part in International affairs they need allies. A. For All these reasons there would be no advantage and much to lose if nato fell apart but neither can it carry on As before. It must adjust to a reduced american role. The hardest part of this is to develop a euro can capacity for an increased role. This is not a problem with the institution itself there Are already new structures in place that would facilitate military interventions in some of the smaller scale conflicts in and around Europe without significant american contribution though still using the nato infrastructure. A Washington unwilling to provide combat troops May be prepared to offer High Quality intelligence and logistic support the problem is getting the americans used to the idea that they cannot dictate policies when relying on others to implement them while getting the europeans. To develop the mechanisms and the concepts to take a strategic Lead in the past  have found it easier to accept american leadership than follow one of their own. The British and French Are the most experienced in military matters but have followed divergent philosophies though recently they have been working increasingly closely together. The germans represent the most substantial Power but Are rather inhibited about wielding it. The smaller countries Are suspicious of the larger conspiring to form a directorate. Attempts to develop common Security policy geared to the imperatives of the Post cold War world have been at Best Bland and at worst chaotic. Natos failings in Bosnia Only follow those of the european Union which adopted a succession of half measures in Pursuit of incompatible goals. It is always easy to propose improved coordination of policies among the leading states of the european Union. This will not be enough if the policies continue to Lack strategic vision. Lawrence Freedman is professor of War. Studies at Kings College in Londona a distributed by Scripps Howard news service