European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - June 18, 1980, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 12 the stars and stripes wednesday june 18, 1980 James Reston Bonn s signals spell uncertainty for Carter is this s Sato Summit meeting in Venice there is one practical Mailer president Carter wants to gel straight this is whether the West German you in mint is prepared logo Forward with the new missile construction Sites in West can Europe or whether in is considering a free a or postponement of this critical strategic decision. Washington has been getting some mined signals from Bonn on this Point. In has Al was been understood that the most modern . Missiles could not actually be up in place and made operational for three years but that in would take three years to con Fruct the Sites Tor their deployment. Lately however. Chancellor Helmut Schmidt who will have a Summit meeting of his own with president Brezhnev in mos cow later this month has been talking vaguely about a moratorium on hew weapons systems on both sides of the Iron curtain without making Clear whether such a moratorium would extend to the preparation of Tom Wicker a solution direct popular election for years now. As regularly As elections come around. Sen. Birch Bayh of Indiana has been bringing up his constitutional amendment to abolish the electoral College and elect presidents by popular vote. And just As regularly the amendment has been Defeated mostly because of opponents insistence that in arc is Little real Dan Ger that a popular vote loser will be an clue Loral Volc Winner or that no one will win a majority of the electoral votes. Only three candidates have won the presidency while losing the popular Vole they ii oiled out. And Only once has the House had to choose a president from candidates of whom none had won a majority of the electoral College. So inc system has worked Well enough and. As Bert Lance used to say if Ilain t broke Don l fix it. Ironically enough Many of these same opponents of the Bayh amendment arc now pointing with alarm to the possibilities that inc apparently Strong Independent candidacy of John Anderson might prevent anyone from winning a majority of the electoral votes thus throwing the 1980 election into inc House of representatives that will be elected next november. Not Only docs this frightening possibility no longer seem so Remote but one of the lesser reforms often proposed eliminating human electors so thai electoral Voles would be Mere numbers automatically counted for the Winner of the state s popular Vole also looks different in inc Light of the Anderson candidacy. Thai would insure inc election going to the House if no one won an electoral Vole majority. But with real people casting elec toral votes the Chance exists for Compro Mise arrangements political deals if you d rather to be made in the weeks Between the popular voting and the Electo ral voting so that some candidate might be Able to put together a majority of the elec toral College after All. As has often been stated in this space moreover we seem clearly to have entered upon an Era when More often than not there will be More than two important candidates for president witness George Wallace in 1968, Eugene Mccarthy in 197ft. Anderson this year. This development is not Chance it stems from the decline of party strength and identity which in turn has been caused mostly by television poli tics and from the increasing numbers and complexity of presidential issues on which the old umbrella parties nou Are unable id satisfy All factions. This obviously increases the Chance that in any Given election year no one will win an electoral vote majority and the House will have to resolve the matter if it can. Each slate would have one vote and an absolute majority of 26 states is required for election. Each slate s vote is determined by a caucus of its House delegation. Stale delegations evenly divided or having no majority for any candidate would forfeit their Voles. The present House has 29 democratic 12 Republican and nine split delegations but five arc democratic by Only one vote and five More by Only two. So if Only four of these delegations should go Republican in november there might even be no House majority for anyone next january. Six state delegations moreover consist of Only one member. Each would have a vote equal to that of All of California s 40-Odd representatives the six thus represent More than 20 percent of the 26 slate votes needed for election. And. There s nothing to prevent say conservative democrats joining the re publicans in a nominally democratic delegation to cast its Vole for the Republican candidate. Liberal republicans could play it the other Way. And what would a narrowly democratic or Republican delegation do if its state had Given a presidential vote majority to the other party would the delegation majority cast a partisan vote against the popularly expressed will of its own slate or would. Say. A Republican elected from a ticket splitting District that had voted for the democratic presidential candidate really defy his or her own constituency on merely partisan grounds these possibilities arc raised to show How unpredictable a House election would be. How vicious inc Wheeling and dealing surely would become and How great inc Chance is hat. In the Short Lime available Jan. 6. When inc electoral votes arc officially counted to Jan. 20, when a president must be inaugurated no candidate could win a majority in the House. In the Senate meanwhile the majority of its 100 members acting As individuals would be choosing a vice president from the two candidates with inc most electoral Voles. This raises the Specter in the Case of a democratic House and a Republican sen ate or vice versa of a president and vice president from different parties. Worse if the House failed to elect a pres ident by Jan. 20. Lie new vice president would be sworn in As acting president. Thus the vice presidential candidate of a ticket that lost the popular vote might Actu ally become president next Jan. 20. And serve until the House could resolve its dead lock perhaps for years. Against such possibilities direct popular election of presidents even with its different set of perils seems a straightforward Solu Tion. As Bert Lance forgot to say. If it is broke fix in. Iho foundation for the new nato system which was Only agreed upon after fierce debate. Schmidt is acting As if he wonders what the confusion is All about. In May be that Carter is especially sensitive these Day about the Unity of the allies on East West relations a subject on the Venice Summit Agenda. If so. It would not be surprising for lately the allies have not Only been talking privately about their Lack of Confidence in Carter s foreign policies but rejecting publicly some of Carter s advice. Schmidt has been careful to advise Washington Well in Advance of what he in tends to say and do in Moscow. One of his purposes obviously approved Here is to make Clear that West Germany opposes the soviet invasion of Afghanistan just As Vehe mently As docs the United Stales. At the same Lime. West Germany s Irac with the soviet Union and its desire for the return of germans from inc soviet Union and Eastern Europe arc fundamental to Schmidt s foreign policy and probably vital to his re election. Accordingly even West German foreign minister Hans Dietrich guns Char. Who has been outs Okenly supportive of the . Pol icy in the past has recently been taking a rather different and More pro soviet line. In has also been noted in Washington that to i West Incanno tolerate so As into repast and remain polio casside Whitehouse Unilever yeast Kenned Delegate is released. Stan not tical and economic contacts Between stand East Germany have increased substantially in recent months a trend that has r been overlooked in Paris and London. Recently president Valery Giscard d is Taing of France made a sudden trip Lopo land to meet with arc a nov. Making Clear before and after Whai proved to be an unproductive meeting thai France did not in tend to ask Washington s permission to Pur sue its own interests anywhere it liked. Secretary of state Edmund music has tried to make the Best of inc latest Middle East pronouncement out of Venice by the Western european leaders who favor the association of the Palestine liberation organization in the peace process and also favor self determination for the palestini an people. But this was just one More Indi cation that the allies do not think Carter s policy will achieve its objectives in the mid dle East especially during an american presidential election year and arc therefore determined to act on i hair own. Against Washington s wishes and policies if Nec Essary. So whal we arc seeing now is a loosening of Allied lies under the pressure of Domestic and election politics in the United slates. France and Wisl Germany. This does not Surprise the Carter while House which plays politics with foreign policy itself but any freeze on the construction of missile Sites in Western Europe worries officials Here for in could influence the balance of Power perhaps for years after Carter. Schmidt and Giscard All Are gone from the political scene. The Carter people admittedly arc a Little jumpy these Days. And in the midst of All their Domestic and political difficulties they wonder Why the allies have to add to their troubles at Iii Lime by passing resolutions that will not satisfy either the israelis or the Palcstin-.? ans. And particularly Why. When everybody wants the red army Oul of Afghanistan. Inc allies have to make pilgrimages 1c arc a nov and talk mysteriously about Stop i Ping the construction of the new Missil a Sites in West German.1i liven the recent separate meetings of tin israeli and egyptian ambassadors with Ronald Reagan make the Carter peo pfc. Think that maybe somebody around he Ftp doubts not on the president s policies butt his re . And around the while. House this is inc unhappiest thought of nil
