European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - November 3, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes monday november 3,1985 James Reston Little expected from congressional elections the 1986 congressional elections Are Likely to produce about what they deserve which is very Little. Though i Csc contests Are supposed to determine control of the Senate the chances Are that ihi1 margin of Victory will be so slim that neither party will he Able to control anything but its temper and maybe not even that. Yet. After winning four out of the last five presidential elections and after Al most six years of tic Reagan presidency the Outlook for a Republican domination of american politics now seems lest Bright than it did in 1980 or 1984. This does not mean that president Reagan will be unable to define the is sues for decision against a divided and leaderless democratic party in the next two years. It meant merely that All the predictions of a revolution leading to fundamental and lasting shift of the bal Ance of Power in favor of the republicans have been at least premature. Party discipline has never been weaker. In the next Congress As in the last the republicans will probably have to Compromise with the democrats on de sense and farm policies nuclear arms control conservation and Federal Regula Tion especially As the president s authority is Likely to decline As he nears the end of his last term. On All these and other controversial economic social and foreign policy is sues the decisive Voles will lie As usual not at the extremes but at the Center. Democratic chairmen in the Senate might make a marginal difference for example if sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts were presiding Over the Judic iary committee reviewing another Rea Gan appointment to the supreme court but even then the president would prob ably have his Way. The. Presidents personal popu Larity still holds and his Faith in his Kartyas the instrument for a confident pain Otic nation is a powerful Factor but he i presiding Over a country that is half in Boom and almost half in recession with vast disparities Between the Rich and the poor and with four years of unprecedented budget deficits and new challenges for the Trade of the world. It is possible maybe even More Proba Tom Wicker ble than he imagines thai Reagan could make a spectacular breakthrough with the russians on the reduction of nuclear arms which would overwhelm any opposition within his own or the democratic party and bring him to the end with a Good Chance of choosing a winning Suc Cessor in 1988. Bui that Tike his dream of a balanced budget and a shield for the human race in outer space lies beyond his personal control. From now on he will be preoccupied with the russians and his nuclear pro Gram. This seemed to hold his attention during the Long and tiring political rallies in the last Days of the Campaign and it is the one Issue on which he is free to negotiate with the Assurance that most of the democrats will Back him on any reason Able and verifiable nuclear arms control policy. Aside from this critical Issue however he is Likely to run into opposition from the democrats who Are trying no with noticeable Success to Muster their forces for the 1988 presidential Campaign. They Are trying to convince them selves that the Reagan conservative Era is ending and thai Public opinion will turn once More to the Liberal Side As i did after the conservative domination of the 20s and 50s. Arthur sub Csinger or. However won Ders whether the cycles of american history will change on time with the Advent of television politics and the changes in the mores of the country. In a remarkably cogent and balanced Book of the same name he re minds us of Ralph Waldo Emerson s View of the ebb and flow of american political history the iwo panics which Divide the slate the party of conservatism and that of innovation wrote Emerson in 1841, Are very old and have disputed posses Sion of the world Ever since it was made now one now the other gets the Day. And still the fight Renews itself As if forthe first Lime under new names and hoi personalities. Innovation presses Ever Forward conservatism holds Ever  Are reformers Spring and summer in autumn and Winter we stand by the  How goes the Cycle now a new wave of speculation now begins but nobody seems to know whether it s Spring an summer or autumn and Winter and so far no new hoi personal ill a have appeared. It Wmk  . S Sanford revives personal campaigning Greensboro . Wearing a Blue puke University windbreaker Terry Sanford the univer sity s 69-year-old former president stood outside the Center Gate of Cone Mills while Oak Panl the other Day shaking hands with workers coming off the 7 a.m.-Lo-3 . Shift. This is almost a lost an form the democratic Senate candidate told a Young reporter for whom Polit ical campaigns have been mostly television spots. I May have been put advertised but i be done More per Sonal campaigning and it s paying off it May be. Sanford who was regarded As too nearly a figure from the past to match the newly appointed Republican senator James Broyhill has surprised this stale with his vigorous Campaign. When Broyhill for example made much of a sales lax on food passe when Sanford was governor 1961 -65sanford Point edly toured the numerous Community College campuses built with the tax proceeds. I Call it a school tax he remarked in a slate known for its support of Public education. And after Broyhill accused him of being soft on it fens Gorbachev would like to see people like san Ford elected to give ski away the senator charged in a speech at Winston Sale Sanford look to wearing his world War ii paratrooper pin and pointing out that As president of a major University he had Long supported exotic defense research. Broyhill also contends thai a vote for Sanford would be a vote to turn control of the Senate Over to big spending  Sanford fires right Back that demo cratic control of the Senate would mean important chairmanships for Southern senators Sam Nunn of Georgia an icon in the South these Days for armed forces John Stennis of Mississippi for appropriations Lawton Chiles of Florida for budget Ernest hoi Lings of South Carolina for Commerce and Lloyd bunt san of Texas for finance. The Day he announced his candidacy Broyhill called the election a referendum on president Rea  last week the president made a third appear Ance in North Carolina for Broyhill an even taken Here to mean that the White House feared that a Char Lotte observer poll showing Sanford with a slight Lasi minute Lead might be on the Mark. When Sanford was running for governor in 1960, a Young Davidson College Slud enl worked to his Campaign today the Slud enl is Alto a democratic Senate candidate rep. Wyche Fowler of Georgia. An Al Lanlan accused of being a. Liberal in a slate still largely Rural and conservative. Fowler was not Given much Chance Ai first but dogged and effective campaigning has brought him Loo to the Point where Reagan paid a second visit to Georgia last week to Shore up first term Republican senator Mack haltingly. A la ugly won in 1980 not Only by clinging to Reagan s Coalt Aiu Bui Over the segregationist Herman Talmadge who had been weakened by personal scandal. Ironically the conservative Republican polled about 30 percent of the Black Vole. Since then aided by Jesse Jackson s 1984 presiden tial Campaign Black registration in Georgia has risen by Aboul 22 percent presenting Fowler with the major problem of most democrats in the South. As suming a 45 percent turnout the Atlanta Constitution estimates that to win be needs to carry about 80 per cent of the Black vote heavily reducing haltingly s 1980 total. Bui thai May Only complicate Fowler s efforts to regain the while particularly while mite support he needs even More. Matingly relying mostly on television spots accusing Fowler of absenteeism in the House and on pleas to support Reagan makes few personal appearance. No wonder. Fowler ays their one television debate resulted in an eight Point Rise in his poll standing. Relentlessly Folksy. Mal Lingyi confessed to the Dillon kiwanis and Serton clubs last week that i m nol Winston Churchill i m not glib i m not articulate i be been called nothing but a typewriter  but he Haj had Hii own Small business an ism franchisee pointed out and taking that perspective to Washington has helped our  nol to be outdone at the Cracker barrel. Fowler has Cut � television commercial with a mule and loves to assure his audiences i May nol be perfect hut i sure am the pick of Tui