European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - November 8, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and strikes saturday november a. 19b6 Tom Wicker election to have profound effect on judiciary the democrats who will control the Senate for the next to years might or might nol reduce or shift Priori ties in military expenditures Stop Aid to the centres in Nicaragua pass a Trade Bill or fall into the political trap of Irv ing to raise taxes. But almost surely they la put a Brake on president Reagan Effort to pack the Federal courts with far right conservatives. A Reagan appointed majority of the supreme court also seems unlikely now but that s unfortunately in Sharp contrast to California. There gov. George Deukmejian a Republican was a Leader in the heavily financed political Campaign that ousted chief Justice Rose Bird and jus Tice Joseph Grodin and Cruz Reynoso the stale s lint hispanic Justice from the slate supreme court now Deukmejian having been re elected will name their replacements. If thai in t pol Ilici Alioti of one of the nation s most important courts what would be California requires periodic reconfirmation of judges by the voters but surely it was never intended thai re confirmation should be a partisan mat Tec. Indeed though they were behind inthe polls and had been appointed by a Democrat the targeted justices properly refused to accept either Money or Campaign support from the democratic parly or democratic candidates. Thus Mev refused to join in the rank partisan politics of Deukmejian Mike curb and rep. De Csc Tau the Republican candidates for lieutenant governor and . Senator All of whom campaigned strongly against Birdann the other two justices. Those opposing them in fact included a who s who Republican conservatives in califor Nia including Bill Roberts the Well known political consultant and stale sen . Richardson. Despite their demagogic use of the death penalty Issue moreover these opponents organized the partisan Campaign against the three justices in order to make possible a conservative majority on the High court. Deukmejian already has appointed two of its seven members Flora Lewis now he will name three More and the political conversion of the court to conservative Republican partisanship will be Complete in plenty of time Natu rally 10 review the  of California legislative districts after the1990 census in Washington a democratic majority of the full Senate and the judiciary com Mittee whether headed by Edwar Kennedy of Massachusetts or Joseph Biden of Delaware can Stop Reagan appointments of extreme conservatives whether or nol qualified to the Federal judiciary. The democrats can to of course defeat any and All conservative or Republican nominees Reagan will have Little difficulty in winning confirmation of fair minded qualified and judicious nominees of the Stripe of say Justice Lewis Powell a Nixon appointee. But a Manion won1 get through the Senate now Robert Byrd of West Vir Ginia has declared and that s Good new for conservatives and liberals republicans and democrats none of whom should want zealots on the Federal Bench let alone judges so invisibly qualified As Daniel Manion was and is. As for the supreme court to which Reagan already has appointed two justices and a new chief Justice two More vacancies must occur if he is to name a court majority. Unless those vacancies arise in 1987, Senate democrats probably could find ways to delay s Nom Inee s confirmation throughput 1988,pending ejection of add restraints on the Washington sponsored guerrilla War to bring Down the sandinista government i Nicaragua and possibly to revive attempts for a negotiated settlement in Central America As a whole. Experts agree there is virtually no Chance of any move toward More Normal relations Between Cuba and the United states in the foreseeable future not Only because of Washington s stand but also because of Fidel Castro . Attitude. But High ranking cubans show a serious interest in an Accord on Central America. Moscow has made Clear thai it is not going to subsidize Nicaragua As it does Cuba and the cubans have told the sandinista that Havana cannot protect them. There 15 room Here for an escape from the dangerous slope the United state is sliding Down in the Region it is common to say that Nicaragua it not Viet Nam but there Are mounting parallel. Not the least important Are the subterfuges and downright lies the administration has Felt compelled o use to press it Campaign against the sandinista undermining the most vital of All National interests the credibility of the . Government in America s own eyes. In Barbara Tuchman s Book the March of Folly four historical examples Are Given of Strong Powers that brought disaster on themselves by dint of stubborn refusal to face reality. She defines this Folly As cases where there was ample warning that policy was wrongheaded where the facts were available and where an alternative conciliatory policy was easily possible. Tuchman cites the tall of Troy the behaviour of the Renaissance Popes which brought on the reformation and Europe s wan of religion Britain s intransigence and mismanagement of the american colonies and the . War in Vietnam. . Policy on Nicaragua its the Case histories of stub born Folly to an uncanny degree including the failure to assess what really matters and what the dangers Are. From time to tune in its shifting fuzzy statements on Centra America and the Caribbean Washington has Point. Nut that the overriding . Concern in the area must b the Fate of Mexico. This is certainly Correct but the vast 4. D painful problems of Mexico Are Only exacerbated by troubles in Central America. Overturning  version Nota palliative. There Are hopeful developments in the spread of democracy in latin America which facet excruciating Odds of debt and the Waal Impact of trying to Over come the economic crisis. The United Stales has a stake in the Sucre and. Stabilization of these democracies. They could have an Impact on the sorry Nicauri Guan Experiment in the longer term but escalation of the War and increased . Involvement would make things harder for them. European allies arc just As opposed to what the United Stales is doing. They Don t speak up much because they Don t feel directly concerned and they Don t see the sandinista or for that matter the Cabanias heroic any longer. But like most latin americans they tee the Best Way to Deal with these pockets of communism As let Ting them Stew in their own juice until their inefficiencies and internal pressures Force them to change. Democratic spam is particularly interested in strength Niri its influence m the latin countries and it has Capa bilt thai can be most helpful to the United states provided Washington is seen As acting constructively not aggressively. Most communist countries Are moving now toward reforms in one Way or another nol because the United states has pushed them but because they Are falling behind economically Cuba is an exception stuck in is rut but sooner or later h must move. An activist us. Policy is needed to reinforce the democracies. An activist destabilizing policy in Nicaragua it . President Reagan is going to have be r priorities and make some Compromise to Jet strongly democratic coutrets in the my ii j01 it is lob Ackaway frojlinffisyis1 a were Kore " Tara a r of Fody. The possibility is there. Recon Sid