European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - March 18, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns William Safire the stars and stripes wednesday March 16. 1987 Gorbachev trying to avoid Kerensky s mistake 1 once met a russian reformer Alexander Fedorovich i said this was 37 years ago and say cub reporters tossed around first names Tell me about the  the old Man Wilh the Gray Crew Cut bristled at my presumption but pointed out that when he had been in charge Steps had been taken toward Freedom of speech religion even of the press. "1 had no support from the allies  he complained. If i had been Given the help that Stalin received in world War ii the world would be a differ ent place  Alexander Kerensky was one of the revolutionary leaders who overthrew the Czar Early in 1917. He be came prime minister of the provisional government pledged to bring Freedom to the russian people. But he made the mistake of releasing Joseph Stalin and other imprisoned bolsheviks i did not think of Stalin As a Man with a future said the Man to whom the old bolsheviks were the new Guys in october the Lenin Trotsky Stalin crowd threw Kerensky out. He died in exile in new York in 1970, a Nan person in his Homeland remembered in the United slates Only As a Liberal reformer not ruthless Chough to eradicate h is opposition. Why do 1 recollect him today admittedly one reason is to impress readers Wilh the length of perspective on modern russian history available to regular Peruser of this space. When i dropped his name As an old interlocutor on Anatoly Dobryzn at a dinner party a few years ago the soviet ambassador reacted with fascination and disbelief As if 1 had claimed to have dated Catherine the great More to the Point the soviet Union now has entered a period of ostensible easement. Glasnost is in Bloom Andrei Sakharov is free enemies of Stalin like Zinovick of reds Fame Ore rehabilitated. The re writers of history in the Kremlin will never look kindly on my Friend Alexander Fedorovich who went up Flora Lewis against Lenin himself one memorable Day in Pictro Grad but another grand switching or White and Mack hats is under Way. During this 70nh anniversary of the october revolution against Kerensky Mikhail Gorbachev is trying to avoid a Cransky s mistake. To change the system that cannot feed the people he must not merely replace but disgrace and drive out the people who feed on the system. He is publicly castigating the Power elite resisting his  West cannot Sec the sullen internal resistance but the Campaign against it suggests its presence we tend to think of the opposition in the soviet Union As made up of Rufu Schiks and Helsinki watchers pm being Given a Tad More tolerance but the opposition with the real Chance of regaining Power is the party and army and ethnic leadership being strongly sup pressed by Gorbachev that Means we have to allow for the possibility that the Gorbachev regime is in serious internal Trou ble. Some of the analysts writing our sine s special National intelligence estimates Are now suggesting a 30 percent Chance of Gorbachev s Transfer to a Power station in  satisfy his Ogar Koville supporters in the military who demand High tech tactical rather than lower Lech strategic weaponry Gorbachev is under pressure to avoid huge new commitments to missile defense. His All or nothing demand of president Reagan at Reykjavik did not succeed. A return to the previous soviet position in Geneva of on Al a Lime treaties would show weakness however that is Why the soviet Leader timed his Retreat to follow the release of the Tower com Mission s blast. Thus what otherwise would seem an ignominious withdrawal was made to appear to be a Gra Cious gesture to a weakened american president. Thai seems to show How these two Fellows need each other to Shore up their positions at Home. But we should not think of Reagan As shaky and Gorbachev secure in fact America s ongoing leadership is stable and the soviet Union s highly volatile. The russians can assume a four letter american successor Han Nunn Robb Kemp Dole Haig Bush but we have no idea How Long Gorba Chev or his agreements will last. Dealing from the strength of stability we should be vigilant about verifiability with permanent on site Surprise inspection teams no encryption and a goal of Mutual testing and deployment of defense Shields lied to missile reductions. Reagan should take advantage of the increments of Progress Star wars has stimulated but should be in no Rush to conclude a grand Compromise in a dangerous grasp for glory called a place in  has a place in history of a Brief interlude Between despotism. Gorbachev not Reagan is the one under pressure la avoid becoming a Kerensky.nvy1i"nnhnbwi5arvka missile withdrawal requires new Way of thinking the question on the cover of the French news weekly be Point is can we believe Gorbachev indeed it is every body s question now and nobody can answer. Even if the soviet Leader is taken at his word which Many soviets do not do can he deliver can tic be ousted and then what would be soviet policy French officialdom is particularly wary now not just because the French Are naturally sceptical. They would not like to see a full withdrawal of american medium Range missiles from Europe in return for getting rid of ss-20s for Rea sons they cannot easily admit. Former Premier and future presiden tial candidate Raymond Barre for exam ple warns without a hint of irony about the danger of decoupling the United states from the defense of Europe. This comes strangely from a country that still insists almost unanimously on the Gaul list policy that kicked american forces out of France withdrew its own forces from the nato Alliance and proclaims its totally Independent defense. Underneath the French establishment would prefer not to see a soviet Ameri can agreement for two Cawns. Though of course it would go Down badly in Public to come out against the very idea. The first is fear that if soviet american arms reduction really gets moving sooner or later demand will arise for France to join in paring Down nuclear arsenals and there will go the myth of Independent Security. The second is the lingering fear of Germany no longer As a potential enemy but As an unreliable Buffer if its american tics Are loosened and Ger Many is tempted to go its own Way to Ward neutralise. But these Are specifically French headaches. Some other europeans share the distaste of nato commander Gen. Bernard Rogers for the Zero option and would prefer to keep a Small number of intermediate missiles though they would much rather see a soviet Ameri can Accord along the lines Washington proposes than none at All. That would renew politically painful tensions. All of this however Only reflects How stuck officialdom remains with old assumptions and How Little it has thought ahead to Deal Wilh what really would be new if there is an agreement. That comes in the Field of verification. Little attention has been paid to the fact that both the United Stales and the soviets arc talking seriously now about sending inspectors around not Only to see that banned missiles Are destroyed but to poke into warehouses factories repair depots on a permanent basis. And they Are talking not Only about each other s countries but the five West euro Pean countries that have accepted the . Missiles Britain Germany Italy the Netherlands and Belgium presumably the reciprocal measures would also be applied to East Germany and Czecho Slovakia where soviet missiles of some what Shorter Range have been installed. Think about it. After 40 years of cold or colder War it is now suggested that soviet and american military experts will soon wander around a number of each other s installations at will to Check up on secret activity. The state department has announced that the american plan on the table at Geneva provides for permanent monitoring of certain critical . And soviet facilities for the production final Assembly repair and storage of trealy limited systems. It includes Short notice inspections of other so called declared . And soviet facilities that is those involved with medium Range missiles Al Lowed to remain in the Asiatic soviet Union and in the United Stales. Furthermore Secretary of state George Shultz said such verification rules should be a precedent if agreements Are reached on reducing other weapons including the biggest missiles. The soviet chief negotiator in Geneva. Yuli a Broil Sov. Has announced that Moscow s new policy is to be aggressive rather than defensive about verification giving and demanding As much intrusion As the United Stales will accept. This opens drastically new prospects. American workers and soldiers As Well As some europeans will be expected to get used to soviets coming around open by to see what they Are doing. People who applauded the message of the television series amerika never to let a russian in he door would have a Chance to Deal with an avowed soviet agent face to face. That is what the question of Trust will really mean physically opening doors. Whatever Gorbachev plans a Well inspected agreement will Force a change of habits and then perhaps altitudes. The United slates has every Rea son to Hope for such a limitation on secrecy so do europeans then Gorbachev s intentions won t  to k tune Nims St vib