European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - March 18, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Pago 10 columns the stars and stripes wednesday March in 1b87 William Safire Gorbachev trying to avoid Kerensky mistake i once met a russian reformer. Alexander pc Dorovich 1 said this was 37 years ago and Sassy cub reporters tossed around first names Tell me about the  the old Man with the Gray Crew Cut bristled at my presumption but painted out that when he had been in charge Steps had been taken toward Freedom of speech religion even of the press. I had no support from the allies however he complained if 1 had been Given the help that slam received in world War ii the world would be a differ ent place  Alexander Kerensky was one of inc revolutionary leaders who overthrew the Czar Early in 1917. He be came prime minister of the provisional government pledged to bring Freedom to the russian people. But he made the mistake of releasing Joseph Stalin another imprisoned bolsheviks i did not think of Stalin As a Man with a future said the Man to whom the old bolsheviks were the new Guys. In october the Lenin Uralsky Stalin crowd threw a Cransky out. He died in exile in new York in1970, a non person in his Homeland remembered in the United states Only As a Liberal reformer not ruthless enough to eradicate his opposition. Why do 1 recollect him today admittedly on reason is to impress readers with the length of perspective on modern russian history available to regular erasers of this space. When i dropped his name As an old interlocutor on Anatoly Dobryzn at a dinner party few years ago the soviet ambassador reacted with fascination and disbelief As if i had claimed to have dated Catherine the great More to the Point the soviet Union now Haslerud a period of ostensible easement. Glasnost is Bloom Andrei Sakharov is free enemies of Stalin Zinoviev of reds Fame ate rehabilitated. To writers of history in the Kremlin will never town Lyon my Friend Alexander Fedorovich who Fil up against Lenin Hin Grad but anole huts is of one memorable Day in Pictro. And switching of White and Block hat s under a during in Ianh anniversary of the october revolution against be icky Mikhail Gorbachev is trying to  to change the system that cannot feed the Japic he must not merely replace but disgrace and devout the people who feed on the system re is  Power elite resisting his changes West cannot Sec the sullen internal resistance be Campaign against it suggests its presence. We o think of the opposition in the soviet Union t made up of refit Schiks and Helsinki watchers no Given a Tad More tolerance but the opposition ,4ft e o 00 Tal Kcf a of Hanisian cease Hub a a Sci tirus economic ii kepcrms1  in the 1 pull out is release being give Cudith the real Chance of regaining Power is the party and army and ethnic leadership being Strong to sup pressed by Gorbachev that Means we have to allow for the possibility hat the Gorbachev regime is in serious internal Trou ble. Some of the analysts writing our sine s special National intelligence estimates arc now suggesting a 30 percent Chance of Gorbachev s Transfer 10 a Power station in Novosibirsk to satisfy his Oga Kovite supporters in the military who demand High Lech tactical rather than lower Lech strategic weaponry Gorbachev is under pressure to avoid huge new commitments to missile defense. His All or nothing demand of president Reagan a Reykjavik did nol succeed. A return to the previous soviet position in Geneva of one at a time treaties would show weakness however that is Why the soviet Leader timed his Retreat to follow the release of the Tower Corn Mission s blast. Thus what otherwise would seem an ignominious withdrawal was made to appear to be a Gra Cious gesture to a weakened american president. That seems to show How these two Fellows need each other to Shore up their positions at Home. Bui we should not think of Reagan As shaky and Gorbachev secure infant America s ongoing leadership is stable and the soviet Union s highly volatile. The russians can assume a four letter american successor Hart Nunn Robb Kemp Dole Haig. Bush but we have no idea How ions Gorba Chev or his agreements will last. Dealing from the strength of stability we should be vigilant about Cri lability with permanent on site Surprise inspection teams no encryption and goal of Mutual testing and deploy Cal of defense Shields lied to missile reductions. Reagan should take advantage of the increments of Progress Star wan has stimulated bul should be in no Rush to conclude grand Compromise in a dangerous grasp Tor glory called a place in  has a place in history of a Brief interlude " Between despotism. Gorbachev not Reagan is the Summit re Mohib Gorby and one under pressure to avoid becoming a Kerensky. Oease i use saw jmj trend a Tom 8l"v"" Cee Flora Lewis missile withdrawal requires new Way of thinking the question on he cover of the French news weekly be Point is can we believe Gorbachev indeed ii is every body s question now and nobody can answer. Even if the soviet Leader is Token aj1his word which Many soviets do not do can he deliver can he be ousted then what would be soviet policy French officialdom is  now net just because the Hench arc naturally sceptical. They a Lulu no like to Sec a full withdrawal of Ajic rican medium Range missiles from rope i return for getting rid of ss-2jftor Rea sons they cannot easily admit. Former Premier and of tuft presiden tial candidate Raymond Byre for exam ple warns without a him of irony about inc danger of a coup in the United states from the defense Europe. This comes strangely from a in Unity thai Sneir insists almost unanimously on the Gaul list policy that kicked american forces out of France withdrew its own Force from the nato Alliance and proclaims its totally Independent defense. Underneath the French establishment would prefer not to see a soviet Ameri can agreement for two reasons though of course it would go Down badly in Public of orc out against the very idea. The r.1 is fear that if soviet american arms auction really gels moving sooner or later demand will arise for France to join in paring Down nuclear arsenals and there win go inc myth of Independent Security. The second is inc lingering fear of Germany no longer As a potential enemy but As an unreliable Buffer if its american tics Are loosened and Ger Many is Temple to Eft