European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - April 30, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 10 the stars and stripes thursday. April 30,1987 columns William Safire former detente Niks taking a hard line stand who d a thunk itt a dozen Yean after inc death or detente after a decade of Ria Vanaut criticism about a fatally flawed pair of Salt treaties Comet now Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger to Gelhar again to warn that the Reagan administration May be going soft on the russians. In their first syndicated collaboration our two fore most strategic thinkers complain about the Zero option brainchild of the Reagan Hawks in which the superpowers would turn the clock Back to the Days before the big soviet intermediate Range missile escalation. Not Good enough according to Kos six the pres ence Clour nuclear missiles in Europe now offsets the soviet advantage in tanks planes and troops. Not Only should we refuse to allow 100 missiles to remain to threaten the far East we should put a new condition on the Deal we have Long offered in Europe remove All missiles Only when he russians eliminate their conventional superiority. Sen. Sam Nunn doa who shows signs or going Squishy on ski supports this approach As do europeans who want heir defense on the cheap kiss Nix is rebutted by a faction called Shull Nilze which says we have to be willing to take yes for an answer. If we renege on our offer now after having honour Point we will lose All momentum toward arms reduction who s right the out of office former Nee hardliners or the in office former hardliner tuned the moorings of mind set have slipped and pundits arc forced id order a la carte one Man s selections the kiss la criticism is right to insist on a real Zero on medium Range missiles. The emplacement of 100 missiles to threaten China Japan and Korea in too Good a Deal for the russians and would make verification 10 times More difficult. One Way to gel Down to real Zero would be to place our St tic fhe Patdu. Countervailing 100 missiles in our Aleutian islands no matter How Alaska s sen. Ted Stevens kicks that deploy ment would make useless the big soviet Pacific naval base at Petropavlovsk. By taking advantage of Seward s Folly we could negotiate away each Side s final 100 medium missiles entirely this would also remind far East pm Trade predators that Protection has another mean ing the miss Nix approach is wrong to insist on linkage of nuclear reduction to conventional reduction. There is Good linkage and bad linkage. It makes stabilizing sense to link space shield development to reductions in offensive intercontinental missiles it also makes sense to link Progress on arms reduction to soviet behaviour on human rights invasion of neighbors support of the subversion of Central America and intensity of espionage. As kiss Nix has Long maintained weapons Don t cause wan War making policies cause inc use of weapons Secretary of state George Shultz has been suckered into Public concentration on one medium Range treaty and should shift the world focus to Good linkage like the need to reduce the dangerous number of soviet icbms and for the russians to pull out of Afghanistan. Bad linkage is All or nothing bargaining that gets nothing. Linkage As we saw in Ine fast shuffle that was Reykjavik can Cut two ways we were proceeding on series of negotiations when Gorbachev suddenly revealed at the end that everything was linked to the gives the russians leverage at the 11 in hour. Bad linkage also undermines Progress by avoiding sacrifice. Reduction of nuclear arms in Europe which is inexorable Means that Europe will have to spend More to defend itself. The Odd decouple is a fact the american presence will one Day be absent and Europe will or will not assume the Burden of its own defense. The . Can negotiate time for this transition to Continental Independence but we should not delay nuclear reduction until the russians become the Swiss pm bracing general disarmament. Both kiss Nix fears and Shuh Nitze Hopes mus focus on . Ever since Anatoly Dobrynin predicted a future Foron site inspection at a dinner party in Alexandria six years ago the russians have been talking verification. Now in Geneva we will see How far they Are prepared to apply glib snort specifically to their Means of waging War. If the past is any indication they will offer stunts and propose that the details be worked out later. No Deal. The safety of the world is in the details. C a Flora Lewis arms control open and agreed Mutual spying9 there s a certain Alice s Tea party Quality to the debate developing on arms control As serious prospects emerge for agreement. Soviet officials accuse the West of having bluffed All along since it is having such a hard Lime deciding what in really wants now that it May have to take what in asked for. Sen. Sam Nunn has a Point when he says the whole approach is backward. Since the idea of Western arms is to deter War in Europe not just nuclear War but any War the logical sequence Wouldhave been to Cut Down on tanks and Armor at the Sun. Then tactical nuclear weapons would no longer be needed to prevent conventional War. And so on up the scale. Bui As he also says it s lop late to turn in All around now. So the existing Agenda must proceed and Bear fruit. It is bogging Down on the wrong issues he links Between Inu rank Dianic and Shorter Range weapons in Europe. According Lonai i i russians have told High level europeans Secretary of stale Sulu made a Tough slab in mos cow at moving the Kremlin further than i thai Gorbachev has gone so far. That would help him sell an Ayce Mem to Western sceptics and the russians know heft Are influential sceptics. Shultz asked Moscow logo on from removing All intermediate Range missiles in Europe to removing All else where too including 100 warheads Hal were to be left in soviet Asia and on , territory under the Reykjavik formula. The soviet answer was a Flat we Are not but Moscow also demanded that the remaining 100-100 be deployed so icy could t reach the other Side s territory thai is not in Alaska. Otherwise it would Only heighten the confrontation is he soviet argument unacceptable so Long As soviet missiles could reach . Allies in Asia notably Japan. Moscow does accept separating Shorter Range missiles 300 to 600 Miles from strictly tactical warheads under 300mileswhich makes sense on he argument thai the la Licals come under the conventional command Structure. They would be linked with conventional arms reduction some other year. But there Are also disagreements on How 10 get rid of the euro missiles. Shultz put Forward the . Proposal to convert perching us in Europe to Shorter Range Pershing ibs and to put the land based cruise missiles at sea. The russians walked. All banned missiles should be verifiably destroyed they said adopting what had previously been the Western position. Further and More important while Moscow proposed staged reductions and destruction Over five years the United slates proposed a four year schedule in which Only the russians would draw Down in the Early stage while the United slates continued building up to meet them. The russians admit their substantial superiority now but they say Bot must Cut Back simultaneously and proportionally to each Side s total. The Rea son is no Only political but to launch the verification regime on both sides from the Start. That comes to the Crux. Verification has been the key Western demand and for Good reason. The purpose of arms control is to reduce danger and increase Confidence in Security. Inspectors running around test Silsand factories As Well As deployment Sites would go a Long Way toward Chang ing the climate an both sides and making further agreements easier. There has never been an agreement to destroy nuclear weapons Cyl ii would to a historic first. Bui the real Advance toward reversing the arms race would be in establishing regular and reliable verification in other words some open and agreed Mutual spy ing. U in t too Many secret leaks that shadows relations it s too Little information. That should now be the Central Hope and concern in pushing for agreement. The rest is hypothetical balances an questions of prestige which Only have meaning if East find West Are headed toward War. Serious Mutual controls would be a practical Start on heading the other Way. The russians say in Public that there is no problem thai they have moved Lothe Point of being ready to accept just As much intrusion As the West will remains to be seen in the Fine print. The United Stales has tabled its verification proposals in Geneva. The russian have not yet either accepted or Laid Down Thor own proposals there is a lot of dancing around now As each Side seeks to squeeze a bit More or give a bit less. And there is a lot of obfuscating pseudo strategy. As the negotiations go to he moment of truth the thing is to keep your Rye on the details. They will show How much of the talk has been playing to the gallery How much is about a real Start on disarmament
