European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - November 18, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns Ellen Goodman the stars and stripes wednesday november 18,1987 psychology1 proves culprit in Bull Market skid in the week of he crash Arthur Kane was nol the Only one in America looking do Sacra Ely for the culprit. The demented Man. Who walked into o Merrill Lynch office in Florida with a six shot .357 magnum in his briefcase blamed his own stockbrokers for the debacle. But inc shooting did t Clear up the Economy mystery. Who Dunn ii what Dunnil a cast of experts not one of whom predicted inc crash has spent lie past Days playing detective. They have produced an entire lineup of suspects. The deficit Dunn it. The computer Dunn it. The interest rates Dunn it. The Trade imbalance Dunn it. Somewhere there s probably a contrarian who insists that the miniskirt dim nil. But inc Best and brightest of those seeking clues have said it was psychology thai killed the Bull mar Ket. This summer while the Market was rising re marked John j. Phelan jr., the Man who chairs inc new York Slock Exchange i d never seen so Many people so Anis in my life. In the Days since october 19. Most financial analysis have turned psychoanalysis. The study of inc Market has become a study of the collective mind a study of Anis Ness. Have we gone from morning in America to the morning after prom optimism to pessimism about inc future travelling West while the Market was tumbling South 1 kept encountering perfect strangers on air planes who talked freely and with a Good Deal of Black humor about How much Money they had lost. The veil of privacy that normally surrounds the subject was lifted. Money had suddenly become a shared Public properly. I met no one who claimed prescience Only Donald Trump obnoxiously gloated to the Public of his is reel smarts his Wall Street smarts. The Man next to me on a Northwest night out of Minnesota was typical of the irony t heard. With self deprecating wit he explained to me How he had prudently kept out of the Market until exactly two weeks before inc disaster. At the same time in All my travels 1 encountered no one who was fundamentally surprised. Shocked yes but surprised no it was in the psychology of the thing. Everyone More or less thought it was coming. Maybe in a Peculiar Way they thought they had it coming. One travelling companion who had Losi three years of profits in eight Days put it this Way i hate losing Money bul it was just paper Money. I never thought it was real. I never really earned it 1 Don t want to put too much Stock in psychology at this volatile Modem. It s not Good for the portfolio. David Broder filk but along with the optimism that s a part of the american character there is also a puritanical Streak. Especially about Money. Especially about Money that has t been won by labor. To Rosa Bolh ranter at the Harvard Busi Ness school there has always been his psychological tension Between Wall Street and main Street it s one that exists inside our own Heads a tension Between Hon est hard work and gelling Rich  to Many the Maricl came to look like an unseemly Racetrack frequented by a pin striped crowd of High rolling gamblers. Even those who were winning weren t necessarily comfortable with the crowd. Or the Cli mate. They kept an Eye on the Exil. In the past few years Many of the haves in this coun try have come to wonder if they have it Loo easy. We have grown uncomfortable with the Gap Between Rich and poor uneasy with the realization Hail we re living it upon credit personally and nationally. And downright queasy about a Bull Market in the face of All that. Peter f. Drucker the 77-year-old put lessor of he Claremont gradual a school used a Blunt analogy for the Wall slice tors of this Era the last two years were just Loo disgusting a spectacle. Pigs gorging themselves at the trough you know in won i  for the most part we did know in would t last nol surprisingly. Inc one Solace in the Down Market Wai the plight of bewildered 28-year-old former hotshots Drucker s  the Young hustlers had become a Symbol of the disorderly upside Down world of the Boom. No one was sorry Lor Ihm. What do you Call a Yuppie Stock broker went the joke key Wailer so if psychology Dunnil if it s psychology behind inc downward spiral of the Pissi week it s the puritanical Side of our nature coming Back to the fore. Not just uncertainty but old fashioned discomfort about the funny Money and inc funny Economy that helped push the Bottom out of the Market. And As the Pool Joseph Brodsky said when he won the Nobel prize life has a Good Deal up ill  Wash Fioldo poll a item Ioup Simon s Stock soaring in presidential politics Kutter , when Paul Simon the senator from Illinois and democratic presidential contender visited the Public High school Here several weeks ago he was right in his element. Speaking under a Banner thai hailed the school s winning the new Hampshire academic decal a Ion in 1985 and 1987, the scholarly candidate author of 11 books spoke As ear Nestly to the students about the importance of their learning foreign languages As he did about his own Campaign. One of the few adults who had dropped in to hear the speech was deeply impressed. It s so refreshing to hear a candidate who is not totally preoccupied with his own ambitions said the woman who declined to give her name because she said i m a Republican looking around for someone to  when do you think you will find him she was asked. I think she replied "1 just  the conversion in Exeter was a tiny pan of what May be the biggest Story in presidential politics at the moment. It is inc emergence of the unglamorous still largely unknown Simon a tint term senator of 58, As a serious contender for the democratic nomination. Simon Usan l planning to run this year he was the chief Capitol Hill Backer of his Friend and fellow Liberal sen. Dale bumpers of Arkansas until bumpers unexpectedly walked at entering the race. Without waiting to assemble an organization or Campaign bankroll Simon announced on May 18, saying i stand Here As a Democrat who is nol running away from the democratic tradition nol a  artfully capitalizing on his Hickish Odd Duck appearance while suggesting he was Niqi one of those Slickly packaged politicians Simon said to become fashionable some people Tell me to gel rid of my Bow tie and my Horn rimmed glasses Well hairy Truman wore a Bow lie and Horn rimmed glasses and he did t in Cums  s one of the Best politicians Illi Nois has seen state Republican chair Man Don Adams told me the other Day. And emphasize he is a politician he likes to stand above the other politicians. Like Jimmy Carter did As if he would t create an image like they do. But it s All image starting with the Bow  adopting Truman As a role Model was just the beginning of Simon s shrewdness he s hoi Saia Republican Edward j. Rollins manager of Ronald Reagan s 1984 Campaign because he was inc first to recognize that with Kennedy and Cuomo out Uherc was a populist void. No one really out there delivering the Liberal message except  the Illinois senator has moved into inc top tier of candidates in Iowa and has planted his Flag As an alternative to the favored Dukakis in new Hampshire. The Southern Sud primary is a big Hur dle for him but if Jackson takes the play away from All the White candidates there Hen the action moves Back to Illinois new York and Pennsylvania where Simon could be As Strong As anyone. Simon thinks his unabashed be Lief in activist government is pan of his Appeal. But a larger part he told me last August when he was barely a Blip on the screen is that people want somebody who believes something and has a sense of  pollster Paul Maslin one of his main strategists says people can see that Paul is real he s solid and he s rooted. For dirty rent reasons he and Jesse Jackson Are creating the most per Sonal response Oul there. They arc willing to speak i hair  Simon s beliefs Are a bit of Hodgepodge. Alone among the 1988 candidates he voted against All the lax culling of the Reagan cars and Mill asserts in was wrong. Nol even Jackson is Matching Simon s proposal to make the Federal government the employer of last Rison for All Long Tim la it victims and no one else has echoed his pro Mim 10 have a plan for financing Long term health care costs ready within 60 Days of taking office. At the same time Simon supports the balanced budget amendment and promises to end deficits within three years. How he would manage All this is a mys cry. In Dover ., he alkyd of financing his  Long term health care plan by higher social Security taxes sin taxes or unspecified changes in inheritance taxes. A Short helicopter ride later Here in Exeter he said be would end deficits by culling spending particularly in the area of defense by stimulating the Economy with his Public employment scheme and Only As a last resort would i increase taxes and i Don t believe that will be  As his Stock soars rivals arc sure to question Simon s budgetary math and thereby Chip away at his political credibility bul his history shows him a Lough Man to pin Down or Knock Down. In he 19114 Senate Campaign incumbent Republican Charles h. Percy s ads assailed Simon As a Man addicted to taxes and tried to dramatize the startling difference Between Simon s Liberal House Yoline record and his inde pendent sounding stump speeches. Bul Simon prevailed by gelling one of every six Reagan voters to split his or her Lickl running even with Percy among moderates and independents never underestimate him Republican chairman Adams advises