European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - November 17, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes Bernard e. Trainor Warsaw pact stressing offensive operations Berlin despite acc Cal soviet assertion that the Warsaw pact has adopted a purely defensive strategy and is cutting Back its military forces recent Warsaw pact Maneu vers in East Ger Many showed that soviet Force continue to stress mass tank attacks and Oiler offensive operations. The Maneu vers were characterized by a soviet Genera on the scene As defensive but nato officers observing the exercise said they saw no evidence to substantiate that assertion. Soviet and other Warsaw pact officers at it Man Euver site a Cal out of their Way to say that the new defensive Doc Trine announced in March by soviet Leader Mikhail s. Gorbachev was fully accepted by All members of he pact but that it takes Lime to Sec Concrete changes. To illustrate the Point the head of the tactics Branch of the East German Mili tary Academy cited major changes made in the school s curriculum to stress defensive operations. Bui it will be awhile before these changes reach All the sol Diers in the Field he said. Military experts at the Maneu vers who heard the soviet assertion were sceptical but said they recognized the technical difficulty of instituting major changes in a military Alliance As Large As the Warsaw pact. The experts also agreed that soviet willingness to permit Western observers and an american journalist at the Maneu vers showed a new soviet open Ness and willingness to improve relations Martin Gottlieb with the West. The North Atlantic treaty organization and the Warsaw pact have agreed to allow military observers to attend each other s Maneu vers involving More than 17,000 men nato observers said it was unclear How much resistance to Gorbachev s new defense posture exists within the so Viet military Hierarchy. Bui most said they thought Gorbachev was serious about changing military policy. Gorbachev has said he is cutting Back on military spending As part of the re structuring of the soviet Economy known As Perc Stroika and because of his desire to concentrate on Domestic problems. A senior British officer attached Tonato who was in East Germany to observe the Maneu vers said he has to Cut military investment if he is going tomake acres troika work and he must make per Stroika work if he is going to  but in the meantime nato officer said the Man Euver grounds near Magde Burg where the soviets conduct Many of their Large Armor exercises is 25 Miles from the West German Border and the Warsaw pact is still capable of launching a Surprise attack into West Germany with Little warning. Soviet and East German officers scoff at that saying Western fears of a Warsaw act attack Are unfounded because the Warsaw pact is a defensive Alliance formed Only because of a nato threat to Eastern Europe. They also deny superiority in conventional forces Over nato. The two realy organizations those officers say arc roughly equal in Overall strength. According to an annual report just published by the authoritative London based International Institute of strategic studies there have been no significant changes in soviet Force Structure or weapons production rates Over the last year to indicate the Warsaw pact is modifying its strategy. Soviet equipment modernization and production continue the report says and the Warsaw act s Mam Battle tanks outnumber those of nato 2 to i. American intelligence officials say the soviets produce 200 to 300 such tanks a month enough to equip 12new tank divisions a year. Warsaw pact officers agree that their Alliance has an advantage in tanks and artillery. But they say that is More than offset by nato superiority in attack air Craft anti tank weapons and naval forces. Both sides think the worst about the other said Gen. Peter Herrlich of East Germany. This Only underlines the need to allay Mutual fears by reducing conventional forces on both Side talks on conventional arms reduction sin Europe Are expected to Lake place Early next year. Discussions with Warsaw pact officials in Hast Germany suggest that there May be More than the economic Burden innings of soviet conventional military doctrine and May also be prompting Mil itary changes. Soviet military operations Are planned on a grand scale. Huge artillery bombardments Are de signed to soften defences so that Waves of armoured units can encircle and annihilate the enemy in a relentless series of decisive Battles that soviet concept of military operations has changed Little since world War a the great offensive against nazi Ger Many continue to dominate soviet Mili tary thinking. To conduct warfare on the scale envisaged by soviet doctrine requires very Large forces Many thousands of tanks and effective command and control systems All of which Are increasingly vulnerable to nato s growing inventory of High technology weapons systems. In time the advanced weapons systems could do to soviet offensive tactics what the machine gun did to the cavalry charge. Using technologies such As satellites Remote controlled vehicles stealth electronics and Thermal imaging targets ranging from tanks to command posts can be observed and targeted deep with in Warsaw pact territory. New precision guided missiles target seeking warheads and new types of air delivered mines and explosives can at tack those targets. The Wesl appear id threaten the under Rte democratic presidencies Don t seem to work out hat is the democratic problem simple up and he incumbents win. Tonally everything s looking up both in conc r presidencies Don t seem to work out and the that brims us Back to 1960. Which is inner Stine. Ways a new treaty and in  Republican ones do. Presidential elections Are above All else arguably to the exclusion of All else re Ferenda on the performance of he incumbent presidency. The democrats have lost seven times since world War ii. Three happened during democratic presidencies thai were going badly 1952, 1968 and 1980and four happened during Republican presidencies that were going rather Well 1956, 1972, 1984 and i98s. It s that simple. The problem is not liberalism unless liberalism is the reason democratic presidencies Don t work. It is not thai Reagan is the great communicator and Bush is the great imitator it is not a mystery. Jimmy Carter s presidency ended in High inflation High interest Rales Ana International embarrassment. If he had won in 1980, that would have been a mystery. The Kennedy Johnson years ended in a dead locked War at Home and abroad the Public looked for an alternative. Richard Nixon sufficed. George Wallace probably would have. The Truman years ended in a deadlocked War and scandal All set amidst communist advances. So in 1952, Adlai Stevenson never had a Chance expertise is not required in interpret any re cent election 1988 and l9b4, things Are going reasonably Well so the incumbent party wins 1980, everything s going to hell 1976, the incumbents hav experienced watergate and recession and they lose 1972, the War is winding Down and the incumbents win 1968 is chaos 1964, everything s looking the opinions expressed in the columns find cartoon san this Page represent Bow of the authors of an in to Way to be considered As representing the Siewt of the stars and stripes a the United state government up the tha bring i960, interesting peace and Prosperity prevailed. However it was a very shaky scary peace Cuba had just gone communist there had been a Summit debacle Berli was tense there were no new treaties. In 1988, the opposite situation prevails internationally Concrete Way the democrats will win the presidency the next Lime things Are going badly under the republicans they will then win re election if things Are going Well under them. It s that simple. Next time i ww10. Whf Effi some off