European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - December 21, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes James Kilpatrick statistical smoke can confuse the cancer Issue a couple of weeks ago a Washington radio station included a 10-Scc Ond squib in its one minute of news on the hour. The item slipped in one ear and out the other leaving an alarming residue behind by the end of this month said the announcer 46,000 persons will have died in 1988 because of environmental tobacco smoke. That s roughly As Many who die every year of Highway accidents. The estimate if accurate gives us some thing to think about. It surely provides ammunition Tor those who would like to ban the use of tobacco just about everywhere. But where did the 46,000figure come from it turns out that the news item was based on an article in environment International by a. Judson Wells. Theauthor is identified with the american lung association of Wilmington Del. His paper reviews literature in the Field and summarizes data that in his opinion provide a basis for estimating How Many adults May die because of breathing other people s smoke. The Layman who attempts to carve a path through statistical thick ets is in for a thorny time and the Wells thickets arc practically impenetrable. He crunches numbers and when he has finished crunching he provides a summary table of "u.s. An Nual deaths from passive  this tells us for example that under some assumptions 992 women will die every year of lung cancer brought Onby other people s smoke 17,335 men will die in the same fashion of heart disease but oddly no men at All will die of other cancer caused by Pas Sive smoking. After the figures have been smoothed and rounded we get the estimate of 3,000 deaths from lung cancer 11,000 deaths All women from other cancers and 32,000 death from heart disease a total of 46,000. The statistics arc mesmerizing but one wonders what they have to do with the real world. Wells finds a statistically significant doubling of lung can cer risks for women married to smok ers of 40 or More cigarettes per Day compared to women married to  who Are these couples what kind of lives do they Lead let Ushie to the living room. Here is old Bubba puffing and blowing through two packs of cigarettes a Day. Is he Home with Stella All this time do she just sit there hour by hour Side by Side Check by jowl inhaling As he exhales does this smelly Volcano Ever go to work Doc she have a Job outside the Home do they live in the City or in the country do they booze How much do they eat Candy drink Coffee if Bubba holds every puff of smoke in his lung for five seconds before letting it out which Wells postulates As a reasonable Assumption old Bubba is not Long for this world. Stella will live on but he death will be blamed on Bubba. Who arc these conjectural hypothetical statistical non entities who knows from the very beginning of the surgeon general s studies linking to Bacco to lung cancer this has been a fair criticism of the data with which the country has been flooded. Repeated efforts to produce lung cancer i Laboratory animals have turned up no convincing evidence of causality that could be Extrado Jated to human be Ings. The correlative statistics Are impressive but they Are just that statistics. Or. David weeks of Boise Idaho a consulting specialist in such areas As ambient smoke Asbestos and radon Isa consultant to the tobacco Institute. That fact should no More disqualify his opinion than membership in the lung association should disqualify the opinion of an anti smoking activist. Weeks says some of the inference drawn from the Wells paper Are pure unadulterated  surgeon general s warning smoking causes lung cancer heart disease emphysema an broken Bones. In calculating risk factors associated with smoking weeks cites a dozen considerations that cannot be reduced to algebraic formulae genetics stress diet environment proximity actual exposure As opposed to assumed exposure and so on. Anecdotal evidence from relatives of a cancer victim is notoriously unreliable. The truth is that after thousands of experiments and Laboratory studies we do not yet know exactly what it is in Nic Otine or tar or cigarette paper that causes cancer in Man. This is no Brief for smoking. The habit is a stinking addiction. If i had my Way smokers would be ruthlessly segregated from non smokers in every place of Public accommodation. But Ido want to file a Brief for Candor in scientific reporting. Not much of value is gained when radio announcer spread alarming reports that can be Only dimly understood through a fog of statistical smoke. C Urt Varmal Pratt Syndicate William Safire columnist reveals the source of his information George Bush has let it be known he will tolerate no leaking in his administration. He is already fed up with the Way the Media has bruised about in Advance the names of his appoint ments. The president elect need hire no plumbers nor Hook up his staff to polygraphs i am prepared to rat on the leaker. Bush is Well aware that three weeks before election Day in an essay Reading Bush s mind i revealed his staffing plans. James Baker was identified then As next Secretary of state and Richard Darman at bomb. Nick Brady was said to be retained at Treasury and John Tower was named for defense with a backup of Jack Kemp now appointed to housing and Urban development Brent scowcroft thought headed to Cia has been slotted As National Security adviser until a supreme court vacancy opens for William Webster. What miserable leaker spilled All that Back in october worse what disloyal razor elbowed favor currying insider revealed that Craig Fuller vice presi Dent Bush s longtime chief of staff would be bypassed in favor of gov. John Sununu of new Hampshire for the most powerful Job inside the White House to discover the source let s walk Back the cat As the counter spies say by using subsequent events to study prior information. Some picks were obvious Jim Baker was Bush s alter ego and made no secret of his goal two years before he led president Reagan to disaster with his switch into Don Regan s Treasury but the Baker Ca reer plan will not be denied. Nick Brady was the financial adviser and buddy already in place and John Tower and Brent scowcroft were Bush advisers and investigative Savior. But other picks left suspicious footprints somebody had to tip the word on Boyden Gray As White House Legal counsel and what about Sununu somebody must have leaked. And the leak beat goes on. At the Baker state department the same leaker tells me to expect to see Margaret Tut Weilor As spokeswoman and Dennis Ross at policy planning. Baker loyalists Bob Zoellick and Josh Gilder will be assistant secretaries with Larry Eagle Burger Winston lord or William Hyland As Stra Boss with the other Kissinger ans at the Pentagon to help Paul Wolfowitz watch Tower. The Reader and the president elect must under stand that not All leaks come True. A few arc off base and More get changed when the leak accomplishes one of its purposes and flushes out opposition. For example in the october mind Reader it was predicted that women would be significantly rep resented at the top. Yet rep. Lynn Martin labor Secretary Ann Mclaughtin and Domestic aide Deborah Steelman each highly capable and All of whom knocked them selves out for the Bush Campaign were brushed Side. Perhaps the pre election leaker was wrong about women because women later voted decisively against Bush and now they re being punished. A second level Slot As special Trade representative was found for Carla Hills. On that sexist score the leaker was mistaken about Sheila Tate As press Secretary Bush retained easygoing Marlin Fitzwater. I suspect the leaker was recalling the White House spokesman s ill prepared performance at the Moscow Summit and his abysmal preparation of Reagan at the Farewell press conference. The reappointment cannot be criticized because few journalists want to limit a Cess i can because i have my own leaker because my Bush source has been so prescient i contrast to my own 1988 predictions i asked for an assessment of the choices so far. No surprises is Good and bad. Says the leaker. Noway that cocky Young Fuller would be staff chief Bush by his nature had to pick a heavyweight and Sununu impressed in new Hampshire when it counted. The kid will Cut the sulks and take a Job  what you gain in stability you lose in originality. Where Are the inspired strangers the unknown Shultze and Moy Hans who spark a Cabinet and White House no top women no Black Blacks no jews a Kinder Gentile nation As the quip goes nobody who looks like fun. And now in the Bush Era All sentences Are to begin with and for the revelation of my secret source. The leaker or president elect is my left thumb. I suck on it stare at the Wall put myself in your shoes Bounce the ideas sucked out of my thumb off a few detail savants read the papers listen up at dinner Par ties calibrate the horror All this stimulates among your aides and Spring a massive leak and it s hell to pay for weeks around the Oval office