European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - March 1, 1989, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Tif. Wednesday March 1, 1989 the stars and stripes Page 3economists predict recession in 1990 Washington a the econ omy will slow substantially in 1989, with rising inflation and higher interest rate Likely to topple he country into a recession before the end of next year the nation s lop business economists have fore cast. The National association of business economists said monday thai a Survey of its members found them slight 1 More optimistic about growth prospects for. This year than they were three months ago. But by lopsided numbers the economists were still predicting that the most Likely time for Ilic Start of the next recession would be 1990. Three out of four of the economists surveyed expected a new recession some Lime in the next two years. However the number predicting a downturn in 1989dropped from 40 percent to 1� percent in the latest Survey. Jay Woodworth president of the association said economists were More optimistic about 1989 in part because of signs that Auto sales retail spending and housing construction were holding up even Vilh the increase in interest Rales.  feel that this expansion is not at the end of its string yet. We probably have another year or so to go Woodworth senior Domestic economist at Bankers Trust co. Of new York said at a news briefing. The new Survey was taken before the Gnu growth sluggish Washington up the nation Economy grew to gang Pfoh 2percent in the fourth Quarter of 1988, stunted by draught Louis and red Ink on the tide Bunce Inlet the com Merce department raid tuesday the estimate for the nation s Gross National product lie total output of goods and ferries a the depart ment second for the dual Quarter of 1988. It waa in changed from the a Vuice estimate lasted but month. The Gnu grew More slowly in every successive Quarter tart year starting .1988 no 3.4 percent in the first Quarter up 3 percent in the second up 2.5 percent and up 2 percent in the final Quarter. The total inf after adjustments for Price changes and seasonal Varia trans totalled $4.03 trillion it in to anal Rale in the fourth Quarter the Bureau  the department s census Bureau raid the summer s drought was to gel to blame for lowing economic growth dicing 1.1 percent off the Gnu in be fourth Quarter Troik. The recovery from the drought will thaw up in autistic for economic growth beginning la the first Quarter of this year. The Bureau estimates that will add 15 percent to the Gnu s growth when Rifae first 1989 numbers Are released i april. The stubbornly High Trade deficit also reduced the fourth Quarter Gnu More than Prtrt Krasley estimated the bar eat said. Latest round of credit tightening by the Federal Reserve Board. Last Friday the fed boosted its discount Rale the inter est it charges to make Loans to financial institutions la 7 percent. A hike in the discount rate is the most dramatic signal the Central Bank can Send of its intentions to push interest rates higher to Dampen an overheated Economy. The business economists expressed Strong support for the fed s ind Ilion fighting Battle with 70 percent expecting the Board to boost interest rates furthering the next six months. Woodward said the inflationary pres sures if they do not Start receding would Likely take their toll on the expansion which has already lasted a peacetime re Cord of six year inflation Rales of 5 percent to 5.25 percent Are too High to be consistent Wilh. Long term growth and Over time they would Send the Economy into a recession he said. .-.--. The median forecast for growth this year As measured by the Gross National product was 2,7 percent up slightly from a 2.5 percent estimate made by the business economists three months ago. The Economy arc at a four year High qf3.sperccnl last year. The Bush administration has based it first budget on an estimate that the econ omy will slow Only modestly in 1989 to a growth rate of 3.2 percent but this Esti mate is about one half percentage Point higher than most private forecasters. The administration is counting on fas Ter growth to bring in More Revenue and help it lower the Budge deficit without resorting to higher taxes on the Issue of interest Rales the Busi Ness economists Sec Short term rates hit Ting a Peak of 8.5 percent this year and then beginning to decline to 7.8 percent by the end of 1989,. The. Administration is forecasting substantially lower rates for his year a projection that also makes the deficit look smaller on paper because it Lowers government borrowing costs. The economic projections were based on a Survey of 69 economists who makeup the association s economic forecast ing panel. The assessments of budgetary and monetary policy came from a Broa Oxer Survey of nearly. 300 of the association s members. Nasa sensor helps unearth old Spanish Mission Bland Fla. Archaeologists have begun unearthing the remains of a 17th-Century Spanish Mission that they located in a pasture with the help of an airborne heat sensor developed by the National aeronautics and space administration. It s fantastic said Jerry Milanich curator of archaeology at the. Univer sity of Florida s Florida museum of natural history. I never saw anything so magical in my life he said of the comp ice gun crated map that revealed the outlines of what Little is left of the Mission Santa fed Tolop. / in the past few weeks teams headed by Milanich have unearthed what they Are convinced arc the outlines of the. Mission s three main buildings the Kitchen  residence and the1 Church. They also have found the mis Sion s cemetery. These relics have Bacn hidden since 1701, when British soldiers and their Indian allies burned and looted inc Century old Santa pc do to Loco soon ruins were slowed into the soil or Cov ered by natural soil buildup in Christmas Eye i9b6,a Field Crew headed by graduate student Ken John son stumbled across pottery,.spikes and Clay near the Santa be River in Florida site where archaeologists have discovered remains of 17th-Century Spanish Mission Alachua county North of the school s Campus in Gainesville. Using Spanish documents hey were Able to narrow the location of Santa Fede to Loco to within id Miles. Milanich and researchers contracted Wilh inc space Remote sensing Cen Ter a Nasa supported  in Mississippi. Last april a plane out fitted with a heat sensing scanner flew Over the site. Computers Analysed the site s radiated heat to different i ate surround ing soil from clip and other Early construction materials which absorb heal differently. They then created a color image that can show differences in heat of As Little As a half degree. The instruments will revolutionize archaeology Milanich said noting icy saved at least si0,000 in this in stance and As much a five years of work. Once the imagery pinpointed parts of the Mission s remnants digs could focus on specific areas and avoid dam aging important sect ions of the site tic said. _. " during the latter half of the 16th Century and All of the i7lh Century. More than 40 Mission outposts dotted la Florida the name Given the entire known North american continent Dur ing the two centuries of Spanish Domi nation in the area one Chain of missions stretched from St. Augustine North to coastal South Carolina while another extended West across the Florida Panhandle. One remnant of the trails that connected them is a dirt Alley Between Homes on Thor West Side of Gainesville. The indigenous indians were eventually wiped out by european soldiers and diseases so minolts from the North look their place. The missionaries abandoned their Al tempt to bring christianity to the natives. Ailment could abort night stalker trial Richard Ramirez los Angeles a the murder trial of night stalker1 defendant Rich Ard Ramirez May be aborted because his attorney is suffering from nervous exhaustion after working on the Case for j i years a prosecutor said. ,. Superior court judge Michael Tynan disclosed monday that a doctor has recommended psychological counselling for defense attorney Daniel Hernandez the physician said the lawyer needs four to is x weeks off to recover. ,. The doctor feels he is not presently a Pirn Able to function effectively As trial coun Sel said Tynan who would not disclose the doctor s name. Testimony began Jan. 30 after six months of jury selection. Probably the chances of a mistrial Ore Good Deputy District attorney a Philip Halpin told reporters we can keep this jury hanging around Indef  the judge scheduled a hearing on Hernandez s health for wednesday and or dered the lawyer to appear along with his co counsel Arturo Hernandez who is no relation. Arturo Hernandez left the trial with out Public explanation during jury Selec Tion Halpin said it was unlikely that he would be ordered to Lake Over for his ailing colleague Ramirez a 28-year-old drifter from Elpaso Texas is charged Wilh 13 murder Sand 30 related felonies in grisly night time attacks that War Orizal Souther California  summer of i98s. The press dubbed the killer who often left behind drawings associated wit Devil worship the night  the Cost of the Case to los Angele county so far was not available. As of july it was s1.28 million in court and investigatory fees not including the j15,000 a month it Cost to of keep Ramirez in a private jail cell