European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - May 10, 1989, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes columns William f. Buckley Don t judge Gorbachev solely by his actions in i i Idt a i not it 1 ref of pin fan in d to Karrl a it the blurt by Secretary of defense Richard Che Ney reminds us once again of the tensions Between diplomacy and analysis. He was asked whether he thought the reforms of Mikhail Gorbachev would take to which he answered no i do not think they will. He was then asked whether that would mean an end to Gorbachev s reign and he answered yes i think it will. To which stretch of Cool analysis the White House responded with feverish dissociation. If Lyndon John son had been president Cheney would have been tired or otherwise humiliated. Bush is a Calmer and More philosophical Man but the incident Calls to mind a theme running through the Mills of journalistic criticism. It is that longtime anti communists do not wish Gorbachev to succeed. Martin Schram a commentator for can has it All figured out. The longtime anti communists he mentioned specifically Jeane Kirkpa trick and Patrick Buchanan can t wait for Gorba Chev to fail so that they can get Back to the Only kind of foreign policy practice they truly enjoy hating the so Viet Union. Now Jane Kirkpatrick is my sister and Pat Buchan an my brother and if i have Ever differed from their foreign policy analyses it can Only have been in a moment of aberration. Accordingly with some Confidence i relay their thinking on the Point of Gorbachev confident that it is no different from my own. It is this the objective chances of Gorbachev s accomplishing what he ostensibly wishes to accomplish peace and Prosper Ity Are slight. Why should this Surprise anyone for 70 years the soviet productive Plant has been emasculated by the sup coordination of political decisions Over eco nomic decisions. When Comrade Ulanov is placed in charge of a shoe Factor because he is a ranking Mem Ber of the local communist party not because he has earned his Way up the commercial Hierarchy soviet shoe production is off to a bad Start. When Comrade Ulanov is then told How Many people he must employ irrespective of whether he needs that Many people or can do with that few people soviet shoe production gets hit again. And then the order goes out issued from some alien ministry in Moscow that the shoes arc to sell for 17 rubles. Comrade Ulanov is. In despair trying to Square All those circles. Now Gorbachev has t repealed All those accretions of state socialism. To do so would pit him against every Comrade Ulanov who clings to his position of authority. Besides which the Market needs a Little time to extrude three generations of compacted sclerosis and even if Adam Smith were in charge of the soviet Walter r. Mears Uki their weft feed Union beginning tomorrow we could not expect a trebling in the shoe production of the country for Well a while. It is True that agricultural production in China was trebled but that was a relatively easy operation taking an acre of land turning to the Farmer and say ing anything you grow on it you can sell for whatever once you can fetch for  Industrial production does t work on tiny individually owned acres. And then there is the subject on which we do not like to touch which is the matter of the soul of the soviet Union absolutely distinct from the soul of rus Sia. It is one thing to criticize As Gorbachev has done the excesses of his predecessors. But the line of criticism stops very abruptly at Lenin s Tomb. Without Lenin there is simply no justification for 70 years of soviet life. Imagine a reformist Pope who questions the authenticity of the Bible and you have some idea of the philosophical and indeed spiritual problems that Gorbachev faces. He cannot deny the cred Ida of the soviet state without denying at the same time his own legitimacy. Now All of the above is generous to Gorbachev As we cold warriors tend to be to a Point perhaps a Little unguarded. It assumes for instance that Gorbachev wants the free Market n9twilhstanding his reiterated professions of Faith in socialism. It assumes that he has no further interest in expansionism notwithstanding his continuing subsidies to Well Fidel Castro. We Are currently engaged in Selling our wheat to the soviet Union at a discount that will make it possible for the soviet Union to continue to Send Dollar value supplies to Cuba which can continue to subsidize revolution in Central America. In other words it is entirely possible that Gorbachev while acting in response to hard realistic pressures is doing so against his own will. It is entirely possible that he wishes to re energize the soviet Union the better to pursue his cold War against humanity. There now in t that a reasonable Reading of history and of the mind of the realists i belong to Only one political committee into which i was inducted in Hawaii Many years ago. It is called the Pearl Harbor committee to keep one s eyes on the russian Fleet. That s All we re doing. Universal Prei Syndicate Gorbachev Flap Cheney s just making Odds its a tactic familiar to anyone who watches television crime shows the bad cop is menacing the Good cop is Calm and reassuring and they re both out for the same thing. By design or by Accident. Secretary of defense Dick Cheney is cast As the bad cop in the Flap Over his forecast of failure for soviet president Mikhail Gorba Chev s efforts to change the society he leads. President Bush and Secretary of state James a. Baker Iii arc the Good Guys cheering on the economic and political reforms Gorbachev has undertaken. They venture no guesses on the outcome. Cheney never said he did t want per Stroika to succeed. What he said was that he did t like the Odds and that the United states should t make wholesale defense cuts on the Assumption that the new look in Moscow will be permanent. That s hardly a surprising observation for the Man assigned to steer the Penta gon budget through Congress. Nor is it a new one. Cheney speculated 10 Days ago that Gorbachev might eventually be forced to change to a More conservative course or to yield Power. And Cheney is not the Only septic in the new administration. 1 he course has been one of caution while policies arc reviewed and Washington tries to deter mine How solid the changes in Moscow May prove to be. Looking around the world today in the developing countries and even in the communist bloc we see the Triumph of two great ideas the idea of free government and the idea of free Enterprise Bush said tuesday. But there is no sign of haste to Over haul . Military policies because of the changes in Moscow including Gorba Chev s multiple target peace Campaign. In red Square last week Flowers and peace banners supplanted the menacing missiles of past May Day parades. Che Ney s question is whether that can last. Even the humor shows signs of the times. Bush joked in a speech Mon Day that the ministry of economic plan Ning had its own unit in the Moscow Parade "200 economists marching along Yelling mayday mayday " after the laughter he added but today that s be ginning to  the Cheney comments that stirred All this into a weekend controversy we remade in an april 29 interview with columnists Rowland Evans and Robert Novak on Cable news network. In it the defense Secretary said until we know that Gorbachev is for real and that the changes he wants to bring about Are irreversible it would be a mistake for the United Stales to Cut its nato forces. Then came the impolitic comment that led to the Flap i think you have to distinguish be tween what he s trying to do and whether or not he s actually going to be Able to do it. And i think the Bottom line is that if i had to guess today i would guess that he would ultimately fail. That is to say that he will not be Able to Reform the soviet Economy to turn it into an efficient Modem society and when that happens he s Likely to be replaced by somebody who will be far More hostile than he s been in terms of his attitude toward the  later in the interview Cheney said he thinks Gorbachev has set an impossible task by seeking fundamental Reform of the soviet system within a relatively Short time. You have to be cautious not to perceive greater change than actually occurs he said. We be had a Brief period of time with a Man who appears to be More of a realist and pursuing policies friendlier to the West. We Don t know whether that s a permanent change that s going to last or whether it s a temporary aberration. As Long As there s a possibility it s an aberration we have to be  Bush and his spokesmen were Quick to disown the Odd making on Gorba Chev s future. The president said he wants the economic reforms of perestroika to succeed and that he d told Gorba Chev so when they met in new York prior to his inauguration. Whenever in the world there is eco nomic Reform the United states should be hoping that Reform succeeds he told the . Chamber of Commerce on monday. Economic Reform with its emphasis on incentives and Market economics leads to More  the White House spokesman said Bush Baker and Cheney All want the Gorbachev reforms to succeed. We All agree that glasnost and perestroika should be encouraged said Marlin Fitz water. And does the administration believe the reforms will succeed the administration chooses not to speculate on that  editor s note Wallet r. Muff vice president and columnist Lor the associated press has reported on Washington and National Pocta for More Man 25 Yean