European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 24, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Global greenhouse preparing for warming disasters by William k. Stevens new York times in the quickening International debate Over global warming the spotlight has played mostly on the question of How and whether to control the growing emissions of Carbon dioxide and other gases that trap heal in the atmosphere now another concern is starting to come to the fore no matter what action is taken some scientists say. There Are already enough of these greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to cause a major warming and much More is certain to accumulate before the buildup can be halted. As a result . Social scientists planners and government officials Are beginning to focus on How society might adapt to rising sea Levels shifting agricultural zones changing climates and other problems that global warming would bring if it occurs on a significant scale already state and local governments along the coast of the United states Are starting to plan for a possible Long term Rise in the sea level and a few have taken action to Cope with it in the Netherlands planning is Well advanced Lor an expansion of that country s system of dikes dunes and other coastal defences and the dutch Are also offering their expertise to Indonesia and the maldives agricultural researchers Are stepping up Ellerts to develop heat resistant and drought resistant crops  might replace traditional crops in the climate changes the world Economy runs on Fossil fuels and burning these fuels generates increasing amounts of Carbon dioxide the most important greenhouse Gas weaning the world away from them is Likely to be a Long and costly business As the difficulty of reducing greenhouse emissions has come Homo the locus has shifted somewhat from prevention to a focus on adaptation said Michael h Glantz of the National Center for atmospheric research in Boulder Colo Glantz a social scientist Heads a stud group on the Impact of climatic change on societies in a report to president Bush earlier this year the National Academy of sciences argued that adaptive measures should be assigned a High priority we Are already irrevocably committed to map global change in the years  the report said. Expressing the View prevalent today among . The elevated concentrations of greenhouse gases produced to Date by human activities will persist Lor Many centuries and will slowly change the climate of the Earth regardless of our actions " the planning options for industrialized countries with All their resources Are numerous the Academe s report said. But that is not the Case for Many developing countries for instance a Rise of just Over three feet m sea level which some experts consider Likely by the end of the next Century would cover Broad areas of Bangladesh. Indonesia and other parts of Southeast Asia holding some of the world s largest populations and richest agricultural lands areas of the world vulnerable to a rising sea level sources United nations environment program dem hydraulics Thosa countries experts say. Simply do not have the resources to Deal with such a disaster in the greenhouse effect Energy from the Sun is trapped in the Earth s atmosphere by Carbon dioxide methane chlorofluorocarbons and other Trace gases the More gases the More heal is trapped How Long it will take for maximum warming to be reached is Uncertain because the oceans slow such warming. Most scientists expect the maximum warming to take place by the second half of the next Century a Rise in sea level is one of the most certain impacts of climate change the u s environmental Protection Agency said earlier this year in a report to Congress higher global temperatures would probably cause glaciers to melt or veil As leading to an Opanion of the Conns because warm water occupies a larger volume of space than cold water ii Levels of greenhouse Gase j in the atmosphere double sea Levels will Rise Esli males of the average Rise a a from 1 5 loot to g 5 feel sonic leading experts regard Rise of Ono meter a lithic More than three feel As most Likely they expect it to occur gradually in the next Century affecting coastal areas where about a billion people a Quarter of the world s population now live in adapting to global warming the primary Issue is coastal  said Michael Oppenheimer. A senior scientist with the environmental defense fund. Planning for sea level Rise must be done decades in Advance of the actual unfolding of the consequences. If you re going to protect such areas with seawalls or carry out a careful Retreat of populations which will be inevitable in some cases or protect houses those Are measures that must be planned Many decades ahead of time " Jerrit p. Tekstra an ecologist m the environmental Protection Branch of the government of the Netherlands said defending a settled coastline or coastal City from rising seas requires a Complete restructuring of your hydrological infrastructure ship channels dikes canals Rivers everything " Tekstra s country has been doing that for Many decades and the experience of the Netherlands May prove instructive for much of the rest of the world for the dutch adapting to a sea level Rise Means simply an expansion of the elaborate modern coastal defense system it has developed in the last 30 years government studies have shown that to protect the country from a sea level Rise of one meter will require an investment Over the Long term of up to $10 billion. The Netherlands has already spent $15 billion on coastal defense in the last three decades coastal defense Means building dikes and piling ups a Susan Harris from Tho now York times Sand on the coast to strengthen dunes and sculpting Rivers and canals to keep sea water from penetrating the soil and ruining both Freshwater supplies and agricultural land Tekstra said it is his opinion As a private ecologist that All this is Well within existing technology and requires Only Money that is not to minimize the problem he said since the United states would have to spend billions of dollars to defend coastal cities and developments against a 1-meter Rise in sea level and might Well have to abandon some Low lying regions altogether in the United states the Epa has made extensive studies of the effect of a Rise in the sea level and most coastal states Are beginning to plan for it questions being examined include not Only coastal defense but matters like Beach erosion and the intrusion of Salt water into Rivers and Bays where it would foul drinking water supplies possible solutions to Saltwater intrusion include the construction of Barrier dams in estuaries and canals to divert the Salt water from drinking water intakes close attention is also being paid to the control of hazardous waste disposal Sites in areas Likely to flood most of the efforts Are in Early stages i Haven talked to a single coastal state that in doing some hard thinking about this and where the government is starting to put together some plans said Thomas w. Curtis the director of the natural resources group of the National governors association. South Carolina North Carolina Maine and Florida with sea level Rise in mind have All enacted standards designed to control construction on their shorelines some predictions of climate change admittedly Chancy forecast drier conditions for much of the american West with serious consequences for a Region where water Scarcity is already the major Factor of life and Prosperity. The Epa study for Congress for instance found that California s water demand could increase even As water supplies decrease. The decrease would come about partly because More Snow would melt in the Winter and less in the summer. No More critical activity stands to be profoundly affected by global warming than agriculture but scientists also consider it one of the most adaptable almost All the crops now grown in the United states for example originally came from some other part of the world and were adapted to the continent. Wheat Barley Rye. Alfalfa and Many other Staples also came from abroad building on this tradition the department of agriculture is preparing to ease the Way Lor whatever transplants might be required by global warming. The stars and stripes Page 13