European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - March 3, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Revolution update continued from Page 13 Are resisting Gorbachev s changes and liberals who support the reforms a formal split at the party Congress this summer is possible. The lithuanian communist party has broken with the Central authority in Moscow. The Kab remains its motives and operations largely a mystery to Western experts on the soviet Union. Under its new Leader Vladimir a. Kryuchkov it has become less obtrusive and has tried to improve its image to one of an Agency fighting drug trafficking organized crime and International terrorism. Western experts generally believe that it has worked closely with Gorbachev at least until Domestic problems flared. The Kab has accepted a limited amount of oversight from the soviet parliament in the big cities people speak and write with considerable Freedom on most subjects. Still control often remains in the hands of conservatives in outlying areas where people Are afraid to speak freely. The Economy Gorbachev has reduced Central planning introduced limited Market incentives by encouraging the growth of cooperatives and sought Western partners for joint ventures but these measures have not revived the Economy in fact Western economists expect the crisis to Worsen. It is unclear whether this would strengthen the hand of conservatives or produce pressure for More Radical measures. Some of Gorbachev s most dynamic experiments Are in trouble a movement has formed in opposition to co Ops accusing them of overpricing and diverting goods from state shops to make More Money on the open Market. Many Western companies have shown interest in joint ventures but few have been started because of bureaucratic and currency obstacles and extreme difficulties in taking profits out of the soviet Union what to look for a big question is How powerful Gorbachev will become even As he talks about democratizing his country there is speculation that he might give up his party chairmanship As the shift of authority from the party to the government progresses. The principal economic question is whether Gorbachev s innovations will stimulate increased productivity and Trade with the West one Issue is How to integrate the Ruble with currencies traded freely on International markets. The supreme soviet is mired in debates Over the introduction of private property and land leasing and is considering Laws on press Freedom and a mechanism for secession. Other major questions Are whether troops can control ethnic flashes in several Southern republics and whether Gorbachev can persuade the Baltic republics to limit demands for Independence. A East Germany Rushing toward reunification events in East Germany Are More complicated and fluid than anywhere else in Eastern Europe and Are Likely to become More so in coming months. Unification with West Germany appears More and More imminent Mikhail s. Gorbachev speaking in january to residents of Vilnius in the Baltic state of Lithuania in the Wake of the local communist party a decision to split with Moscow and press for Independence at right his wife Raisa. Ear setting the stage for a pan German election in Mcember the Pace of reunification partly depends on soon monetary Union can be arranged. And if the dus of East germans surges again there Are fears of potential backlash in West Germany. Poland leading Light Load of troubles per one thousand people household telephones 248 passenger cars 127 Turkey sources population reference Bureau plan econ department of Commerce although questions about a United Germany s military status in Europe remain. Developments will also be coloured by the results of elections on March 18 in East Germany and on dec. 2 in West Germany. Until the East German vote the country is being led by a weak caretaker coalition with both communist and opposition members. Political change until late january East Germany was led by a communist interim government that had hobbled along after the oct. 18 fall of Erich Honecker the Hartline Leader who ruled for 18 years. With a deterioration of the new government s authority it admitted members of the opposition and agreed to move up elections scheduled for May to March 18. Hans Modrow a party Leader from Dresden is the prime minister until the election after which he is expected to leave the scene. East German opposition groups that emerged after the fall of Honecker and the opening of the Berlin Wall on nov. 9 have effectively been pushed to the sidelines by sister parties of the big West German parties. The Christian democrats of Chancellor Helmut Kohl and the social democrats with Oskar Lafontaine As its candidate for Chancellor have been campaigning in East Germany. In one prediction the social democrats will be elected creating momentum for social democrats in West Germany and insuring its control of the first United German government. But conventional Wisdom suggests that Kohl should not be underrated. Communist party and police state renamed the party of democratic socialism the communists ranks have been pared Down from 2.4 million members to 890,000 in a matter of months. The party under a reformist chairman Gregor Lysis is trying to carve out a role As a left Wing opposition group. Polls suggest that it May get 15 percent of the vote letting it play a reduced but significant role. The government agreed in january to dismantle the secret police after Modrow s Effort to keep some form of intelligence service infuriated the Public. Honecker and most other old leaders now face charges from embezzlement to treason. The Economy the Economy is suffering partly because of the exodus of 2,000 East germans each Day to West not Germany and apprehension Over the future. The first step of Kohls rapid drive toward unification is Likely to be monetary Union it is hoped that this will alleviate tension by giving East germans a currency that has real value and can be used anywhere. A common currency would also Spur West German investment. But no one knows How monetary Union might affect East germans pensions and savings the rate they will get for their own Money and whether Many businesses will be put out of work. What to look for after the East German election will the new government cooperate with Kohl s Christian democratic government might the Germany unite before the end of Poland is Well on the Road to Complete Socrati nation and thus far has Eastern Europe a most a intimate government. But it also has economic Ibl Ems that Are among the regions worst and a Jve labor Force that having brought Down the immune its could conceivably become the new verment s undoing. While Solidarity shares Power i in the communists in the National government immune its remain in control at local and regional i res. That Power is being contested in elections j Hedu led for this Spring. Slit Cal change he communists and Solidarity have led the country an uneasy partnership since last fall. The communists d the presidency under Gen. Wojciech Jaruzelski d the Interior and defense ministries. Tadeusz Czowiecki of Solidarity is prime minister. Waiting in the wings Lech Walesa the Solidarity Ider who Many predict will someday succeed Zuzelski and Bronislaw Seremek head of the lid Arity bloc in parliament who Walesa and others Ieve May someday be prime minister. Presidential actions Are not scheduled for six years there is awing support for an earlier Date. Communist party and police state economic crisis a year ago forced the communists to Gin talks with Solidarity leading to its legalization and limited parliamentary elections which the opposition n overwhelmingly. The communist party was banded in january and replaced by two parties Ocial democracy its less dogmatic successor and the lion of social democracy a Small group of communist orders who believe the new party is tainted because its association with the former party. Parliament is discussing whether to abolish or sharply Duce the size of the Security police a Force that Mains largely in the hands of the communists along the the army. Some experts believe that while the Ilice have lost much of their Power they Are lurking in e background and would like nothing More than to appear in the event of Public discontent. But without it Viet Power to Back them up their ability to squelch sent would be Uncertain. The Economy the government is struggling to tame an inflation rate of about 1,000 percent and to build a Market Economy to help revive growth which has stagnated for a decade. The severe plan ends subsidies to Consumers and Industry allows layoffs and bankruptcies requires a balanced budget removes most Price controls and imposes strict wage controls. The country has gotten pledges of More than $3 billion in foreign Aid to help stabilize its currency rebuild its crumbling Industry and make farming More efficient. West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl in Erfurt during a Page 14 a a a the stars and stripes saturday m Gorman Campaign rally for elections March 18. Rch3, 1990 Vaclav Havel president of Czechoslovakia. What to look for the various parties Are holding congresses and additional new parties Are expected to form in anticipation of the june elections. In two rounds of negotiation the soviet Union has agreed to pull out a Large number of its 75,000 troops by the time of election in june and to withdraw the remainder later. After the parliament is elected it will have to decide How quickly to proceed to a Market Economy and what shape it should take it will elect a new president and will have to write a new Constitution. Czechoslovakia confident democrats take the Helm the former czechoslovak opposition has effectively taken the reins of government from the communists and put the country on the Road to democracy. The no communists Are Well organized and optimistic about being Able to carry out a democratic election and the country has the strongest memory in Eastern Europe of a democracy. Political change the effective governing movement is civic forum the umbrella organization that emerged in the peaceful rebellion in november that forced the communists to step Asi de. Since december Vaclav Havel the Leader of civic forum and his colleagues have shared Power with communists. He has made his Job As president once largely ceremonial into a position of real leadership. Jan Carnogursky a close ally is first Deputy prime minister Alexander Dubcek who led the country As a reformist communist in the Quot Prague Spring Quot of 1968 and emerged from obscurity after november leads the parliament. The communists have Given up seats in parliament and last month they gave up their majority. In the wings it is not Clear to what extent civic forum will prove a transitional movement or become a party unto itself in parliamentary elections scheduled for june 8 it could endorse candidates from1 among its member parties or from other parties or run its own slate. A Green party has performed Well in polls and a social democratic parly has formed. Two parties have established themselves As Independent movements after decades of participation in the communist front a the socialist party embracing intellectuals and reformers and the people s party a roman Catholic group. A Farmers party is forming As Are tiny splinter groups including the Beer lovers party. Communist party and police state the communists Are not expected to win More than 15 or 20 percent of the Voto in june even though their current Leader Ladislav Adamec has positioned himself As a reformer. The old leadership under Milos Jakes collapsed last november and a splinter group democratic forum of communists has split off from the main body. An estimated 500,000 of the 1.7 million members have dropped out. The secret police have been dissolved. The Economy the Economy is probably in the Best shape of any in Eastern Europe. It has begun to move away from rigid Central planning in the last few years and is trying to move toward a free Market in stages. The financial planners while favouring a free Market say the disadvantaged must be protected from capitalism a Rigours. Huge investment is needed to modernize Industry and diversify the Economy lessening Reliance on Coal and steel. Joint ventures with foreign companies were introduced before the november upheaval and those Are expected to be broadened. In the Short term the drastic change of government has been accompanied by economic disruption that has created uncertainty and a productivity drop. Except for Poland and the soviet Union which is voting for local and regional governments All countries Are electing new parliaments. East Germany March 18 West German parties Are allying themselves with East German partners in a contest Over who will merge East Germany s future with the West s. Hungary March 25 the communists have changed their name but hungarians Are still Likely to reject them and turn instead to a coalition of opposition parties. Poland mid april or Early May j communists Are Likely to be ousted from local and regional posts strengthening Solidarity in its dealings with the communists. They share Power in the Central government. Romania May 20 elections will test the popularity of the provisional rulers and whether the people still see them As liberators. Bulgaria May 20 a poorly organized opposition faces perhaps the most difficult fight in Eastern Europe against the communists who retain some popular support. Czechoslovakia june 8 democratic traditions Are stronger than elsewhere in Eastern Europe and the communists Are Given virtually no Chance of winning any vote the new parliament is to elect a president and perhaps write a new Constitution. Soviet Union february and March by the end of March regional and municipal elections will have been held in most soviet republics in a test of whether the communist party can slow the rapid decline of its authority in the country. Hungary economic Hope and social tension in transition to a multiparty system Hungary May soon be the front runner in the race toward democracy. It appears Likely that the former communist party will be out of Power shortly after the March 25 elections and that the country will emerge with the first totally no communist government in Eastern Europe. The Battle is shaping up Between two opposition groups experts predict that no one party will capture a majority and that a coalition will be formed. The new government will have to Deal with rising prices and a crushing debt Burden. Political change the government is still made up of members of what was formerly the communist party among them prime minister Miklos Nerseth and Imre Pozsgay minister of state. The leadership has been fairly reformist striking continued on Page 16 the stars and stripes a a a Page 15