European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - March 3, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Revolution update continued from Page 15 away at the edifice of the one party system since Early last year. In Quick succession the authorities legalized Independent parties opened the Border with Austria starting the exodus of East germans to the West and rehabilitated the 1956 hungarian uprising against the soviet Union. In the wings Janos Kis and Miklos Haraszti spokesmen for the Alliance of free democrats a pro Western group which polls indicate could receive about 20 percent of the vote Jozsef Antall chairman and Geza Jeszenszky foreign policy spokesman of the centrist and nationalist hungarian democratic forum which polls suggest will also receive about 20 percent and Istvan Prepeliczay Leader of the Independent smallholders party which is expected to get about 16 percent and is respected by Many for having won Hungary s last free election in 1945, under the Shadow of the red  party and Polico state a year ago the party had 700,000 members a month ago it had 30,000. Nonetheless polls suggest that it will take about 10 percent of the vote. Some think the party could be a viable opposition if austerity measures under new leaders deepen social tensions. The party has split into two groups the hungarian socialist party the larger faction is led by Pozsgay and the hungarian socialist workers party which is More hard line and is led by former prime minister Karoly Grosz. After Quot Danube Gate Quot a scandal that broke Early this year when it became known that non communist parties were still under surveillance by the Security police the Interior minister and other officials were forced to resign. Parliament took Over the authority for intelligence gathering and requirements for Legal wiretaps and other surveillance have been  Economy As the country has moved toward privatization and the government has imposed Steep Price increases of up to 30 percent to Cut Down on subsidies the Standard of living has dropped causing enormous frustration and adding to tensions in the pre election period a $20 billion debt is eating up most Export earnings amid rising inflation the country is trying hard to attract foreign investment to revitalize antiquated industries. Higher unemployment and prices Are  to look for the shape of the coalition to come and its ability to make hard economic choices and withstand the political fallout Are the important tests. Also crucial is How the new leadership deals with emerging nationalism which has raised concern about a possible backlash against jews gypsies and other minorities. Sociologists economists and politicians talk about volatile social tensions. A Romani horror is past dangers persist the country has not yet evolved into a democracy by any Standard. The Ceausescu family has been ousted and the communist system is being dismantled but people remain suspicious of the coalition which includes Many former communists that seized Power in december. Elections in May could help create a government with wider support. The country is very unstable with food and other shortages and demonstrations every Day by groups from ethnic hungarians to soldiers demanding greater rights and better economic  change the country is being run by the National salvation front which emerged out of the revolution that deposed and executed Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife Elena last december. The leadership includes president Ion Iliescu an official of the Ceausescu years who had fallen out of favor prime minister Petre roman a protege of Iliescu and others from the now defunct communist party. After Large demonstrations challenged its legitimacy the National salvation front three weeks ago formed an unwieldy 253-member provisional Council for National Unity that is acting As a parliament until the elections Page 16 a a a the stars and stripes scheduled for May 20. The Council included representatives of All political parties and ethnic minorities and various dissidents and intellectuals. In the wings leaders of the National peasant and Liberal parties Many of whom served Long years in prison under the communists Are among the handful of leaders who have openly challenged the fronts dominance. Also in the wings Are members of the old communist Hierarchy who have been adept at switching allegiance to the National salvation front. Their continuing hold on positions of Power locally and nationally has become romanians main political  party and police state the party collapsed with Ceausescu a a execution. Some experts believe that the National salvation front is in a Strong position to win elections since it still has sweeping Powers and can still Appeal to Peoples yearning for stability after the last turbulent months. Is jul ill flip 1 by. J what to look for will enough food be available How powerful is the National salvation front and How will any government to Able to establish its legitimacy after years of tyrannical Rule Given the turbulence of the last few months How peaceful will the Campaign be the danger in Romania is that instability May Lead to the military a stepping in even perhaps at the invitation of the government. Will social turmoil and economic hardship increase tensions Between romanians and hungarians the country s largest ethnic minority a Bulgari following the Lead of neighbors the promises of change heard so far in Bulgaria appear to be the minimum required to keep in step with events elsewhere in the bloc. The communist party remains intent on running the country although it has scheduled elections and loosened restrictions on free speech. A amps Randy Mcclain full shelves at a bakery in Brasov Romania belie growing problem of food shortages. But the opposition parties and possibly some authoritarian response from the army could pose a threat if the situation remains too unstable for too Long. After Ceausescu was executed the National salvation front and the army quickly crushed and disbanded the Securi Tate the secret police. But it is still unclear How Many agents have been captured How Many will go on trial and How Many Are at Large. Suspicions remain that agents continue to Lurk outside and inside the  Economy Ceausescu reduced economic conditions to such a level that anything will be an improvement. Recovery could be helped by the Low level of foreign debt. Plans for foreign investment Are still unknown though Romania has received an infusion of foreign Aid that has produced a Short term Rise in living standards. In the weeks after the revolution Consumers could buy oranges and Coffee for the first time in years. Long term supplies Are a problem and shortages of food and other Basic goods persist. In recent weeks Romania has had to rely on an increase in foreign supplied electricity from the soviet Union and West Germany. 21 Poland soviet Union Bulgaria 28 28 29 Hungary 33 Czechoslovakia the Worth of Money comparison of average purchasing Power in 1988, expressed As an Index with United states level equal to 100, thus soviet people had 28 percent of the purchasing Power of americans. Values Are based on per capita Gross National product with those for East bloc countries reduced to reflect Lack of Many goods and services at official prices and problems 39 with Quality and  change prime minister Andrei Zukanov a communist is considered an advocate of economic and political reforms the head of state is Petar Mladenov a former foreign minister. Mladenov led a Palace coup on nov. 10 that toppled Todor Zsivkov the stalinist who had run the country for 35 years after it became Clear that the soviets would not stand in the Way of profound changes elsewhere in Eastern Europe. Zsivkov is awaiting trial on charges of corruption and mismanagement. In the wings the weak opposition is concentrated in the Union of democratic forces which combines several Small dissident groups formed Only in the last year with labor unions ecology groups and organizations like the social democratic party which has been repressed by the communists. Prominent figures include three University professors Zhenyu Zhelev Constantin trenches and Petar Beron All democratic socialists. In addition the agrarian party a communist puppet for the last 40 years has begun to take Independent  party and police state the party is still considered a Strong contender in the parliamentary elections scheduled for May 20, because the opposition parties Are not Well organized and because the bulgarian communists roots precede the period of soviet domination that began after world War ii. The party Boss Alexander Lilov is disposed toward Reform. Last month the party surrendered its Legal role As the dominant institution. The apparatus for repression remains intact though the new government has allowed demonstrations and has promised not to spy on the people As the Zsivkov authorities did. The hard liners who ran the Interior ministry which controls the police have been  Economy the Economy has stagnated with chronic shortages of Staples. Cautious attempts to allow Small scale private businesses like restaurants and taxi services began under Zsivkov and since 1987 the government has advocated greater local control of state enterprises. But even the current leadership acknowledges that Matching words with deeds has proved difficult and that the Economy needs a shake up. East Germany source plan econ a what to look for elections in May will test whether the communists can continue to run the country. The oppositions chances May depend on How Well they can organize and How Well they can present their Case to a population that has never experienced democracy and has been largely passive. One Issue is How much Access the opposition will have to National television. The communists popularity May depend on How quickly and specifically they make economic and political a amps Chan changes. Saturday March 3,1990