European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - June 22, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes Friday june 22,1990 column Martin Gottlieb Bush prospects better than Carters on issues they re saying George Bush is in a wonderful position for 1992, that the democrats might As Well not bother. In fact though by the most useful Standard Bush is in a situation similar to that of Jimmy Carter at this stage of the latter a one term presidency. Of course in Carters last two years everything that could go wrong did. The most useful Standard is Allan Lichtmann a list of 13 a a keys to the outcome of presidential elections. Professor Lichtman of american University in Washington was lonely in predicting a George Bush Victory in the Spring of 1988, when Michael s. Dukakis was stomping Bush in the polls and had been for months on end. And his keys applied retrospectively can be used to successfully a a predict the outcome of any presidential election since 1860. At least three of the 13 keys seem Likely to be turned against Bush. If six Are he loses. The three a has the presidents party lost seats in the . House Over the previous two elections if so that key is turned against it. The gop lost a few seats in 1988, and if it gains in 1990 that would be very unusual for a presidential party. A has the president effected a major changes in National policy a if not he loses the key. Bush Hasni to even tried. A is the president charismatic All three keys were also leaning ant Carter in 1978, but no others were unless you assumed that Ronald Reagan would be the gop nominee. One key is turned against the incumbent if the challenger is charismatic. However an economic downturn eventually Cost Carter one key. And the Iran hostage crisis a a major failure in foreign or military policy Cost another. Then Ted Kennedy challenged Carter for the nomination costing Carter another key. Contested nominations Are seen As a sign of trouble for an incumbent party. If <som�1hlh6 should happen to Gorbachev. Mis soccer Szotz. In some thins should happen to Bosh. His us lessor. And vol thought 1h6 russians had a problem1 and John Andersons race for president Cost Carter still another. History shows that incumbent parties tend to lose when there is a three Way race. Finally eight keys went anti Carter. Where might the democrats pick up keys now they might nominate Mario Cuomo or Ted Kennedy either of whom might qualify As charismatic. The term admittedly is a bit vague. Actually the key suggests that nominating Jesse Jackson would help the democrats. This might be where the Lichtman system Breaks Down either key on the Economy could turn against Bush. One asks whether there is a recession in the election year. The other asks whether economic growth Over the last four years has been slower than it was for the previous eight. As of now economic growth on Bush Swatch is below that of the average Reagan year. None of the other keys seems promising for the democrats. They would win one if Bush fails to achieve a major Concrete foreign policy Success such As a treaty. But the Bush people Are familiar with the keys and the International situation is propitious. The democrats would also gain keys if there is a major foreign policy failure a major scandal or major social unrest. But All in All the democrats would have to be Lucky that is their country a Economy would have to turn Down to get even six. Even though most keys Hadnot turned against Carter by 1978, the seeds of trouble had been planted. He had failed to achieve full acceptance within the party. The possibility of a Kennedy Challenge was always there ready to Spring to life if Carter got some bad polls. Moreover the world situation was More threatening in those Days. Bush a situation is better. The conventional Wisdom is right about that. Of course at Campaign time the conventional Wisdom will say that everything depends upon the Campaign and issues and other such irrelevancies some important democrats a Cuomo sen. Albert Gore or. Of Tennessee and gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas for example a Are familiar with the Lichtman system. If they Are Able to contain their excitement about 1992, that a understandable. Gottlieb writes for the Dayton daily news c Cox news service George f. Will slavery a unfortunately a is London a South of the River in a slightly seedy Section of the City in a Down at the heels building that has seen better Days but not better uses the anti slavery society is still in business because slavery is too. Founded in 1839, it is the worlds oldest human rights organization. As it raises its Small voice amid the incessant clamor for Public attention it faces the problem of Stark incredulity concerning its threshold assertion slavery exists. Today there May be As Many perhaps Many More people in conditions properly denoted As slavery As there were when the society was founded. So says the society a director Lesley Roberts. She is not one of those flurried people one so often sees in the world of altruism the kind who perpetually look As though they had risen late and dressed in haste. She has the brisk manner of one who has worked in Banks which she has done and she has the restlessness to have been bored by that which she was. In an office lit Only and dimly by watery sunlight that struggles through unwashed windows she enumerates the society a concerns beginning with chattel slavery a the total ownership of one person by another. It was officially outlawed in the arabian Peninsula less than 20 years ago and May even be expanding in parts of Northern Africa particularly Sudan. Far More prevalent and properly called slavery is debt bondage especially of children. Such labourers Are bound for payment of debts and Are entirely subservient to a Power from which there is no Appeal. There Are workers in servitude in both hemispheres. Roberts says that Many haitians living illegally in the dominican Republic have been in effect sold to state owned sugar plantations. But the biggest problems Are in Asia where slavery often is a particularly odious because routinized form of child abuse. Children Are in a sense a a natural slaves a a renewable source of slaves a because they Are bom into total dependence on adults. Children Are sometimes sold outright with common prices ranging from $20 in the Sudan to $200 in Bangkok. Social traditions no longer sanctioned by Laws a traditions of caste and class a can still be As Strong As Iron Fetters. There is the tradition of giving a child for say a year in payment of debt a sometimes a debt incurred by parents who borrow from loan Sharks using children As collateral. At the end of the year the person holding the child in bondage May say the child has eaten so much that the bondage must be extended. No one knows even within several scores of millions How Many children Are enslaved in Domestic service in sweatshops or in asians huge sex Trade. When computing the probable numbers says Roberts a it is not hard to get up to 200  in India for example the government says there Are fewer than 200,000 bonded labourers. The society a sources say 5 million. Look Down dear Reader you May be walking on them. Demand for Indian carpets soared when the Price of iranian carpets Rose after the Shah outlawed child labor in the Early 1970s. Today in indians main carpet weaving Region Small hands such As those of seven year Olds tie especially tight knot there Are 100,000 Mal alive thriving nourished children employed. Some 15 percent of them according to the society were sold into bondage in spite of the fact that India outlawed debt bondage 14 years ago. They often work 12-hour Days poorly fed subjected to Corporal punishment often sleeping at their looms six sometimes seven Days a week for a weekly wage sometimes As Low As $1. Today As two centuries ago slavery pays. The labor costs of a carpet that May sell in London for $6,000 can be As Little As $20. While sifting abundant evidence of such slavery and worse millions of children male and female Are devoured by asians prostitution Industry the society maintains a remarkable emotional equipoise advocating piecemeal remedies for absolute evils. For example it does not favor Banning imports of carpets made with coerced labor. It knows that destroying the carpet Industry would destroy Many lives. An existing Industry can be improved. Publicity embarrassment persuasion organized labor a these Are among the remedies required. But the first requirement is the patience of politics which acquires special dignity in the face of such shattering facts. Roberts and the society 180 Brixton rd., sw9 6at Are echoes of the distinctive moral earnestness that redeemed the 19th Century and leaven this one. A i get bored easily a she says. A this is not  c Washington Post