European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - September 7, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Byproduct Ofina Sionne focus on a democracy in the Arab world by Thomas Friedman new York times democracy has had Many strange midwives. Wars social upheavals and economic dislocations have All at one time or another Given birth to democratic movements. And now maybe the strangest midwife of All has appeared. A bizarre byproduct of iraqi president Saddam Hussein a invasion of Kuwait is that it has begun to stir a debate a both in the Middle East and in Washington a about democracy in the Arab world. It is still a nascent and unformed debate and it May Lead nowhere As have other such stirrings in the past. But there is no denying that the Arab nation which has slumbered through glasnost and perestroika and All the popular revolutions from Berlin to Bucharest is asking itself some new and fundamental questions precisely because of the storm unleashed by the iraqi dictator. A there is no doubt that Saddam Hussein is the wrong Man with the wrong method but he May have come at the right time Quot said Nawaf Salam a prominent lebanese intellectual and Harvard University researcher who watched from his Home in Beirut As the iraqi invasion unfolded. Quot what his invasion of Kuwait did was put All the fundamental and forgotten questions in the Region on the table. First of All Money. What you could see in Beirut this summer was a whole new awareness of How much Oil wealth some of these Little Gulf states really had amassed. Quot if you asked people a month ago what size were the fortunes of the Emir they could not Tell you. But now people Are aware. They talk about $900 billion in petrodollars invested by the Gulf states abroad at a time when egyptians Are hungry syrians Are bankrupt and Lebanon is  this awareness in turn has raised More sharply than Ever the questions of who controls this great wealth and Why. Quot people Are asking Why should 200 kuwaiti princes control 20 percent of the worlds Oil a no wonder that one of the solutions arabs Are talking about for Kuwait is elections Quot Salam said. Quot if real elections and a real democratic Republic were the outcome in Kuwait then one could say that this was a Welcome crisis. It could transform the whole  it May already have done so. Even if Iraq evacuated Kuwait tomorrow few can imagine kuwaiti Emir sheikh Jabir Al Sabah a who fled to saudi Arabia by helicopter soon after the iraqis invaded a returning to Power with business As usual with the distribution of wealth in Kuwait the same with the kuwaitis who stayed behind to fight and resist saying Quot please or. Emir Here is your Palace Back. Thank you. Now we will go Back to our  the poor Arab states such As Egypt and Syria which have also fought for Kuwait will also present their Bills for a new distribution of wealth. And if there is change in Kuwait what will be the spillover next door in saudi Arabia Bahrain Qatar and the United Arab emirates All of which have even More conservative Feudal systems these questions Are no less fundamental for the Bush administration. President Bush has declared that one of the four objectives of americans intervention in the persian Gulf is that Quot Kuwait a legitimate government must be restored a and he has several times specified that this meant a return to Power of Kuwait a exiled tribal monarchs the Sabah family. But that is a position with which Many in Congress find themselves increasingly uncomfortable. Rep. Lee h. Hamilton d-lnd., chairman of the House foreign affairs subcommittee on the Middle East said a i know that i and Many of my colleagues Are hesitant about lining up with tribal monarchies and identifying our interests with them. A saudi official at pie Side of the Aramco Oil facility at Ras Tannura saudi Arabia has increased output to make up for shortfall created by . Embargo on products from Kuwait and Iraq. A Quot i personally would not want to make it one of the United states objectives that we restore the Al Sabah family. That would put us in conflict with the worldwide trend toward democracy As Well As with our own democratic values. We have to recognize that one of the spinoffs of this crisis is that it is going to put stress on All the traditional monarchies from Jordan to saudi  in fairness the Sabah have always been the most progressive of the Gulf monarchies. Historically Kuwait blessed with the Only natural deep water Bay in the persian Gulf was a desert outpost whose bedouin tribesmen made their living from Pearl diving and fishing until Oil was discovered at the outset of world War ii. Its local politics has been dominated by the Sabah clan since 1756. The Sabah so ascent and continuation in Power were partly products of their own Industry and partly products of their cooperation with the British who installed them As Kuwait s first Independent rulers when her majesty s government relinquished its control there in 1961. Two years later the House of Sabah allowed the establishment of a National Assembly to advise it on governing the country. The Sabah also allowed for a relatively free press which rankled their Gulf neighbors. But every time parliamentarians or editors became too obstreperous the Emir would dissolve the Assembly kuwaiti ruling family remains in Power is Quot a matter for the kuwaitis to  Quot if the americans insist that the Al Sabah must return then what does that say about Washington s commitment to democracy Quot asked Samir Khalaf of Princeton University an expert on social change in the Arab world. Quot but if they done to support the return of the Al Sabah then How do they justify the preservation of the House of Saud the Al Sabah have no fewer palaces than the saudis. Quot if the Only reason the americans Are involved in the Gulf is Oil that is bad. I Hope it is More. I Hope it is to create a political atmosphere there to bolster democracy. I Hope that they Are at least listening to the voices that Saddam Hussein has inadvertently Given vent  r  crisis in the Gulf or shut Down the newspaper. Kuwait a Independent parliament the Only freely elected representative body in the Gulf Region was last suspended in 1986. What Washington should do about the Sabah is not purely a philosophical question. If the Gulf crisis continues to move from the Battle lines into the diplomatic Bazaar As it has been moving for the last week it is Likely that the Fate of the Sabah will become a Centrepiece of negotiations. It is easily imaginable that at some Point Over the next few weeks or months As economic sanctions really begin to bite Saddam could say to his Arab neighbors Quot my Brothers i am ready to withdraw my army from Kuwait but you done to expect me to leave empty handed. You know i can to do that. I need some compensation something to save  no doubt he would ask for an Oil Well and an Island or two. No doubt these would be rejected by the other arabs and the West. But what if he asked Only for a new a popular Quot government in Kuwait one More representative of the people and More sympathetic to iraqi concerns that is an offer Many Arab governments might leap at in order to defuse this crisis which if it comes to War could topple them As Well. It is Clear that such a possibility is already in the Back of Bush s mind. Lately he has refrained from mentioning the Sabah and last week he even remarked that whether the but that is a ticklish question. Among the president s four objectives in the Gulf there is no mention of promoting democracy. Besides rolling Back the iraqis restoring the kuwaiti government and protecting american lives Bush said the United states seeks to preserve the Quot Security and stability of the persian  in the last 50 years the United states whatever its oratory has tended to support democracy when it serves the interests of stability and to Back away from insisting on it when it could destabilize an area of National interest. ,. At stake in the Gulf is the stability of Oil supplies and the need to preserve the Sanctity of Borders so that the Post cold War world will not devolve into chaos. American troops Are not passing out arabic translations of the Constitution. To expect the United states to begin promoting democracy in the Arab world May be a bit too much to ask. Quot let us be honest democracy just Isnit on the menu in the Arab world today Quot said Fouad Ajami an expert on Arab intellectual thought at the Johns Hopkins school of advanced International studies. Quot what you have in the Arab world today is either the Rule of the monarchs or the Rule of the tyrants the Rule of Kings or the Rule of army officers. With Lebanon gone there is no democratic a third  Quot in the monarchies like Kuwait the social contract was that the ruler ruled and the citizen made Money and minded his own business. It was not democracy but it fit these tribal societies. There was a softness to them a respect for limits and men led lives of  in places such As Syria or Iraq the social contract was quite different. There Ajami said Quot the rulers ruled and the citizens cowered for their very  while the Emir and sheiks just wanted to do business quietly the Saddam and the Hafez assays were Selling political utopias Arab nationalist visions the Pursuit of which justified mass murder. In the Syrias and Iraq the presidential seals might As Well read Rule or die. One Man triumphs the others weep. To think that the debate ignited by the iraqi invasion could easily overturn either of these systems a the monarchical or the dictatorial a and replace it with pluralistic democracy would be naive. The resources of the modern Arab state to survive in Page 16 a a a the stars and stripes Friday september 7,1990