European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - September 7, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Economic uncertainty its two Basic forms Are enormous. Money overlapping intelligence services brute Force and cunning have produced a remarkably stable generation of Arab regimes. Algerians president Chad i Benj Edid has been in office since 1979, Egypt a Hosni Mubarak since 1981, Saddam since 1979, . Moa mar Qadhafi since 1969, Morocco a King Hassan ii since 1961, syrians president Hafez Assad since 1971, Jordan s King Hussein since 1953. But there is a difference in this crisis and it May yet produce real change. The discontent it has exposed is not simply something cooked up by intellectuals. The crisis has put out of work thousands upon thousands of arabs a egyptians syrians lebanese palestinians algerians a who had depended on employment in Iraq and the Gulf Oil states. All have returned Home nursing grievances and starved for jobs. Combine their existence with the fact that All the old Arab ideologies a socialism fundamentalism Nasser ism a have been discredited and it makes a very potent Force for social change. The other new Factor is the unprecedented involvement of the United states in the Arab world. Americans find it easier to support non democratic governments when they Are not fighting and dying for them. That was a big problem in Vietnam. So if shooting starts in the Gulf or even if the United states finds itself deeply and expensively involved there for months or years americans Are going to begin asking a lot of questions about these regimes for which they Are sacrificing. Before this crisis is Over Bush will probably have to have a Long talk with americans Arab allies to let them know that Saddam has served a warrant on their societies and that while the United states does not expect them to become jeffersonian democracies overnight some sort of change is necessary a for their own Sakes As Well As for Washington s. From that perspective the saudis egyptians syrians and others might wind up More scared of Bush than of Saddam. Los Angeles times if the United states embarks on an All out War in the Middle East it could have enormous economic consequences potentially inflicting More damage on the . And world economies than anything since world War ii government and private economists say. Scenarios compiled by leading economic forecasting firms show that a major persian Gulf wide military action potentially could Force the United states onto a wartime economic footing and slash living standards throughout America. Quot whatever Benefit we get in the Short run we will lose in the Long term harm that we Are doing Quot contends Allen Sinai economist for the Boston company a new York based economic consulting firm. Peter Perkins an analyst with Dri Mcgraw Hill a Lexington mass., economic forecasting company agrees. Quot i Don t think Short of the world wars there a been the kind of economic Impact a War in the Middle East could have Quot he says. The Issue is important because while actual armed conflict often has accomplished its political objectives the economic Impact of launching and sustaining a huge military Effort frequently has proved to be an economic turning Point. Economists generally agree that it was world War ii not the Roosevelt administration s new Deal programs that ultimately pulled the United states out of the great depression of the late 1930s and established the country As the world s Foremost economic Power. Government borrowing needed to finance both the $200 billion Cost of the Vietnam War and the Johnson administrations great society programs is widely blamed for having been a major Force behind the rocketing inflation and severe recession of the 1970s. But economists say that for All its disadvantages embarking on an All out War a with a Quick and presumably decisive Victory a could prove a far better option than other alternatives such As a protracted impasse which would rapidly Drain the Economy. Analysts warn that a lengthy stalemate with continuing uncertainty Over the availability of global Oil supplies would Spur Oil prices sharply higher and push the economies of the United states and other major Industrial nations into a certain recession. The Middle East has Well Over half the world s Oil reserves few regions have such a hold on global economic interests. When Oil prices Rise by Only $6 a about half the increase they showed in the first three weeks of the current Gulf crisis a they add a full percentage Point to the inflation rate and Dampen the world s economic growth by 0.5 percent Georgia state University economist Donald Ratajczak says. Stories Ond photos on pages 2 and 3 the san. Vol4t.no. 145 thursday. 8op�lnbtf 8. Iwo to 0 w93 a nato Type group would Deal with crises Middle East Alliance proposed after to adj i Tationa. Riktor 10u ill k.  i it  m Washington apr to Ualita suit Aid a City thru nun. Sikai Alba my a a and Quot Ftp Aal atari to Matara Tor a Tiki it Sikai a it uhf cult pm Iku Lotfi a Lmh Ali i urn sen Sarabit Ortt no Kwh aha Tal a pfc Fuan Chuhui aka Actea Raiati Xoai Kauai run wryo<juuju�aa.fcitrlilm4wsr a wac Arab Panid Paula. 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S2n�a of Tea Rouaa Baa Dobia Alto a Maud Uwana mock Adt Forth Tai a Cali Maksiak Sikai to too Ltd it Waco of classified ads a in Magazine a today every Day can make a world of difference in your life in a world that never takes a Day to rest every Day can make a world of difference. A Day can mean the difference Between a Campaign and a Victory. A budget and a budget Cut. A revolutionary idea and a revolution. The stars and stripes has All the news it takes to keep you on top of the world s events. And a subscription to the stars and stripes can assure you that you la never fall a Day behind. Call one of our circulation offices today listing on Page 11 for your subscription to the stars and stripes. Or write to the sars and attn sales promotion Apo 09211 the stars and stripes a we can make a world of difference in your life. Every Day. Friday september 1990 the stars and stripes a a a Page 17