European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 6, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 a the stars and stripes tuesday november 6,1990 columns Tom Wicker new budget wrong message for economic woes last weeks alarming employment statistics a 68,000 jobs lost in october after 52,000 disappeared in september a not Only suggested further National slip Page into recession but that the celebrated new Quot budget deals was the wrong economic Medicine. That a not merely because the president and Congress agreed More or less on an arrangement that is supposed to reduce the Federal deficit when a looming recession seems to Call instead for economic stimulus. Defenders of the budget Deal insist the $40 billion in putative deficit reduction scheduled for this fiscal year is not enough to trigger a recession. Fiven if they re right and to some of us $40 billion seems quite enough of a Straw to break the camels Bac the Overall five year program of deficit reduction is aimed supposedly at expanding private investment. Instead it May actually reduce such investment because higher taxes and curtailed Federal spending will reduce demand or retard growth in demand. But studies show and even the president s economic report concedes that demand and its rate of growth Are the factors to which private investment is most responsive. Arcane statistics support this common sense notion. If the Public demands More business will seek to provide it. But if falling demand causes investment to decline employment will decline too. That will mean lower government revenues and higher government outlays to ease the plight of the jobless and their families. And that in turn will mean an increased Federal deficit not despite but because of the budget Deal. Beyond that a Strong argument can and should be made that it is not private but Public investment that is most in need of expansion a Public investment for the tangible such As roads and Bridges and sewage disposal plants. And for the intangible education and research and development. Sadly the budget Deal was aimed at deficit reduction including spending cuts and a balanced budget rather than at increased Public investment. But How sceptics ask could we spend More when we Flora Lewis. What Quot a amp amp amp Rui tons "7% already owe so much aside from the question of whether the Federal deficit and the National debt Are All that Large when measured against Gross National product spending More makes ample sense if the added expenditures Are aimed at increasing employment. For every percentage Point by which unemployment is reduced the Federal deficit would be Cut by about $40 billion because of higher revenues from More people working and lower expenditures for fewer unemployed people and their families. The budget Deal makers must have overlooked the significant fact that Unem-1 Ament stood at 10.7 percent at the end of 1982, and still was More than 8 percent at the end of 1983. Since then it Nas declined rather steadily to 5.7 percent today. Economist Robert Eisner asked pertinently in an article in Challenge for May june 1990 a How explain the extended recovery in the last seven years cutting that unemployment percentage in half was it really unrelated to the initiation of huge deficits and the swing Back to easier Money by the fed in 1982?�?� Eisner the Kenan professor of economics at Northwestern University pointed out that during roughly the same years a 1984 through 1989 a a inflation has run successively at 3.7,3.0,2.6,3.2,3.3 and finally 4.1�?� percent. In other words the stimulative deficits that helped reduce unemployment did not produce runaway inflation or anything approaching it. In the past two years moreover Gross private Domestic investment averaged in real terms 17.6 percent of Gnu a which is equal to or above the ratio of investment to Gnu a decade ago. So the borrowing needed to finance the deficit has not really a crowded out private invest ment doomsayers to the  has the National debt a not to Bel confused with the deficit a ballooned ill properly viewed against the size Andl growth of even a sluggish . Economy National income and Gnu have been growing at about 7 percent a year. So has the National debt. This debt to Gnu ratio permits an an i Nual deficit As Large As 3 percent of Gnel although that ratio reflecting a sensible balanced growth policy is maintained the problem is not How much the govern ment spends though that a what the Bud a get Deal primarily addressed. The problem rather is what Thel government spends for. Stay tuned for an a other article on this important question 1 c new York time West should help opposition oust Saddam Paris a the one relatively painless Way to end the confrontation with Iraq without War or appeasement has amazingly scarcely been broached. It is called a the internal solution a helping the iraqi opposition get rid of Saddam Hussein a regime. Western policy makers Brush it aside As virtually impossible. They say if the opposition Hasni to overthrown the dictator in All these years it does no to exist. That is an Odd argument. Four coup attempts were reported last year quashed with Many executions. But at that time Saddam had open or tacit support from almost All the countries now against him. There is an Adamant opposition in exile. Members claim they have backing of muted millions probably most of the 16 million iraqis. Twenty seven leaders signed a Public a Appeal for democracy and human rights in Iraq in London on feb. 27, nobody paid attention. One told me that attempts to Contact american officialdom produced Only demands to a prove you can be effective inside the  of course he said a anybody who tries to Peep inside Iraq is dead so no longer  a number of different groups have Long opposed the regime. They include kurd 4 million Large but Uncertain number of the shiite majority pro iranian islamic fundamentalists sunnis who Are not members of Saddam a Aakriti clan or beneficiaries of his largesse christians the Radical left. This leaves aside those who accepted the regime but must be having second thoughts. One reason they got nowhere is that they were divided but they Are working now to unite. A group is meeting in Damascus obviously with the indulgence of syrians president Hafez Al Assad to produce a joint program and an umbrella organization. There Are a million iraqi exiles a the largest opposition of any in the third world a said Hishyar Zebari a London based spokesman for the kurdish democratic party. I asked what they wanted from the United states and he said a political and moral support dialogue. We done to know the West a real objective just to get Saddam out of Kuwait or to depose him. If its just Kuwait there a no Point. We want democratic change in  another iraqi opposition figure a businessman pointed out that the . Assistant Secretary of state for african affairs had received the somali opposition but his Mideast counterpart never talked to iraqi opponents. He wonders if the United states wants to change the regime or still clings to the pre Kuwait policy of seeking a Deal with Saddam. There Are some grounds for believing that the anti Saddam coalition including the United states is still hoping to restore the status quo Ante of the Kuwait invasion despite president Bush a vivid rhetoric. They Are worried about upheaval throughout the Region. Even the . Commander in saudi Arabia Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf talks of maintaining a a Correct balance of Power in the Middle East and not destroying Iraq. Turkey worries about unleashing a kurdish in dependence movement that could engulf its own kurdish areas. But Zebari says his iraqi friends confirm la his people want an iraqi state with autonomy within democratic Structure. Saudi Arabia is worried about the shiites and an Ira i Nian takeover. But As the businessman who asked not to be identified pointed out Tehran tried to provoke Al shiite uprising during eight years of War with no Success j they fought As Loyal iraqis. All the Gulf regimes and others in the Region Arel skittish about the idea of democratic movement in Thel neighbourhood. They could be contagious. That is not a reason for the . To ignore their pleas to be heard. The Nasty things Washington has finally gotten around to saying about the iraqi president Are True nobody knows it better than these people. There is no guarantee that with support they can produce results. There is no guarantee that if they do they will produce a decent stable peaceful Iraq. Butl they Are probably right that if the United states attacks the iraqi people will react in defensive nationalism Asl the iranian people did when Saddam made War on them. What is Clear is that War guarantees Only More Trou a ble. There is no going Back humpty dumpty has fallen looking ahead has to mean looking for new forces Witnel Liberal aspirations. Its madness not to recognize them and just stumble on. C new York times