European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 13, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes tuesday november 13,1990walter r. Mear Bush s re election Hopes hinge on events on the revised political form charts president Bush a 1992 vulnerability rating has soared and democrats arc surging toward a potent bid for the White House a appraisals that will stand until the next revision. And it wont be Long in coming. The Only certainty about the new look at Bush a re election prospects is that it will be outdated by events issues and personalities before the real campaigning begins. The outcome in tuesdays elections wont have much to do with it for All the efforts of political cheerleaders and seers to project the next Campaign based on the last one. Not that Bush lacks for political problems. Those were displayed but not created by the off year Cam ii it pain Ana elections. Chief among them he had to surrender a major Issue by agreeing to increased taxes As part of the budget Deal. Now he a trying to revive his no tax pledge with a no More pledge. Taxes and budgets Are going to be a political headache for democrats too. They Veall got to govern in a slumping Economy that a going to afflict state and Federal budgets next year. Democrats said Alt along that Bush would be hard to beat for a second term if the Economy is in Good shape in 1992, and vulnerable to their Challenge if it Isnit. Nothing has happened to change that appraisal. Nor can there be meaningful guesses about the next election without an answer to the biggest question a president faces War or peace. With american troops on the front lines against Iraq the outcome in the persian guff crisis could become the overwhelming Issue of furthermore off year elections Seldom have been a barometer of the presidential contests that followed even when they delivered the kind of Clear partisan verdict that was lacking this time. Midterm election campaigns can set the candidate lineup for the presidential year but that does no to necessarily work either. It did t work for sen. Edmund s. Music of Maine the democrats chosen spokesman in a nationally televised address on the eve of the 1970 elections a loser when he sought the 1972 presidential nomination. Bush acknowledges his disappointment in the setbacks some republicans suffered last tuesday but dismisses a this kind of Coy dance in which the off year is weighed As sign of the Campaign to come. A the minute the election is Over everybody shifts gear and starts pointing at �?T92,�?� he said. A a it a understand Barry Schweid t in  he turned aside questions about his plans to seek a second term saying he Isnit thinking about the next election. That a Standard positioning for a president who does no to have to worry about Campaign fund raising or about gaining his party a nomination. Those advantages go with the Job. A challenger has to Start sooner which Means about now january at the latest. Democratic prospects already have waited longer than usual to Start stirring. When Bush was Riding highest in the approval polls there were complaints that nobody seemed to want to take him on. Sen. Edward m. Kennedy no longer ranked a presidential Prospect in the Early polls and speculation complained months ago at what he called a a kind of unnatural quiet coming from our  he said last Spring that democrats were a almost conceding a second term to president Bush a or hoping against Hope that he stumbles somewhere along the  now that its happened largely on the tax reversal and economic unease democratic leaders say Bush can be beaten. A i think George Bush is incredibly vulnerable in 1992,�?� said Ronald h. Brown the democratic party chairman. Republicans of course insist that a not so and claim he could have won this time. That a hypothetical. Some of the problem Points Are not Bush needs a Clear consistent theme without the variations of the past Campaign. He campaigned against democrats and taxes then against Washington in general then against Saddam Hussein. His spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said shifts in the message were a a phony issues because All the elements were there in every speech. That a so but the emphasis shifted drastically. White House political aides and advisers reportedly differed on tactics and topics for the off year Campaign. Strains like that can do serious damage in a presidential Campaign and the Bush re election committee a expected to open up next fall a will need Strong management. Conservative republicans Are restive especially on taxes and there is talk of a Challenge from the right in the Republican primaries in 1992. Liat May be chronic Bush never has been a favorite of the gop right. The associated press allies favor diplomacy Over Force with Iraq Paris a raise the possibility of confronting Iraq with military Force and the Alliance against Saddam Hussein turns far less cohesive Secretary of state James a. Baker Iii has found. Give diplomacy More time they said. At the same time they acknowledged that a military confrontation May be unavoidable. Baker has rallied the leaders of eight governments to demand the liberation of Kuwait strengthening the Alliance in some ways. With virtual unanimity Baker found the leaders of the soviet Union China Britain France Turkey Egypt saudi Arabia Bahrain and the exiled kuwaiti regime in unanimous agreement that Saddam Hussein a invaders must depart. On top of that they endorsed the Bush administrations judgment that partial solutions a anything Short of the unconditional and total withdrawal from the Oil Rich emirate a were unacceptable. But the Alliance was far less cohesive when Baker brought up the use of Force even As a last resort to evict iraqi forces. The soviet Union probably the most vital member of the coalition apart from the United states clearly prefers to give political diplomacy at least two More months before pulling the trigger. Soviet foreign minister Eduard a. Shevardnadze gave Force a very reluctant endorsement thursday in Moscow saying a probably this could not be ruled out under certain circumstances. Similarly chinese foreign minister Qian Lichen who met with Baker for two hours tuesday at Cairo a Airport gave assurances Beijing would not veto a . Resolution authorizing Force. But like soviet president Mikhail s. Gorbachev and Shevardnadze the chinese official urged the Pursuit of a diplomatic settlement. The same message was delivered by egyptian president Hosni Mubarak whose troops . Officials said would fight alongside american forces in the event of War Mubarak also would like at least two More months of diplomacy before considering a War against Saddam Hussein. The trouble is the Bush administration detects no sign that the iraqi Leader is in a mood to yield to United nations demands that he release Kuwait from his grip. A a we be seen no evidence in All of the diplomatic activity that a taken place on the part of Saddam Hussein to even begin to comply with the United nations resolutions a a senior official said Friday in Moscow. Besides Baker said the soviets agreed with that appraisal a despite hopeful statements Gorbachev and his emissary to Baghdad Yevgeny Primakow have made on occasion. A i done to think the soviets Are any More optimistic than we Are about the willingness of Saddam Hussein to leave Kuwait a a Baker told reporters who travelled with him to seven countries in eight Days. In fact a senior . Official said Primakow a was basically stiffed during trips to Iraq in september and october. Even so the Bush administration is holding off on a Resolution in the . Security Council. Baker said none was being prepared a a despite reports from new York that the United states was ready to Call for Force against Iraq if peaceful political measures fail. By contrast however president Bush on thursday ordered another 200,000 american troops to the persian Gulf to provide enough military muscle for a War against Iraq. Bush said the buildup potentially to about 430,000, was intended a to ensure that the coalition has an adequate offensive military option should that be necessary to achieve our common  unquestionably Baker found common Goate on his Tnp the primary one being that Iraq should leave Kuwait. ¢�2i?v.ei1 a of Nior us official was asked Friday in Moscow who would fight alongside the United states he could Oso guarantee saudi Arabia Egypt the ousted kuwaiti monarchy and the Small persian Gulf states Britain probably can be counted on As Well. A obviously we stand absolutely together in supporting the great International coalition that has been built up to see that aggression does not cannot and will not pay. Absolutely together a prime minister Margaret Thatcher said after talking to Baker on Friday in London. A the peaceful solution would be for Iraq to get out of Kuwait a she said. A we Hope they will do it. If not we shall have to take the military option and see that Iraq does leave  on the other hand Syria and France were listed As question Marks in the session with reporters under rules that barred identifying the official. After meeting with French president Francois Mitterrand and foreign minister Roland Dumas Baker on saturday declined to say directly whether they had told him they would fight. But he hinted As much saying a we believe we Are totally  it remains to be seen what Impact the mixed message will have on Bush when Baker returned with it to Washington on saturday night. It could give the president reason to bide his time a bit at East to hold off until he makes his own thanksgiving Holiday visit to the Gulf. The associated Proa f be