European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - December 23, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Business Newbuck gains from unrest in a a a i Jet 4 i it May not exactly signal the Start of a cold War 11, hut the Surprise resignation of soviet foreign minister1 Eduard Shevardnadze. Last week sent Shivers through the world s financial markets and gave the . Dollar a much a ceded boost. It remains to be seen How far the Dollar moves up beat tsp of the turmoil in the soviet Union. But some currency traders Are speculating that the Dollar might gain another eight or nine pfennig in Quot Germany Over the next two months As soviet president Mikhail s. Gorbachev struggles to hold his nation together. Sieve Barrow an economist with chemical Bank in London is one currency analyst who thinks the Dollar stands to gain substantially. Barrow said Shevardnadze s resignation which was marked by a Blunt speech in which he warned of a possible hard line dictatorship arising in the soviet Union should Lead to Dollar gains against several currencies but especially against the German Mark a a the dollars future remains clouded by the threat of recession in the United states As Well As by falling interest rates Back Home. But Barrow still thinks the Buck could Trade As High As 1,60 Marks in Early 1991. A a a because of the situation in Russia the Dutsch Mark wont be As Strong As it otherwise t would have been a he said. Here show Barrow and Many other traders View the situation Quot since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the decay of com stors have flocked to the German Mark As the currency most Likely to succeed. Barrow said its too Early to make doom and gloom predictions about the soviet unions future but most currency traders now see. Greater risks when they look to the East than at any time in the past year. A Quot its an underlying uncertainty that a quite sub Stantial a the British economist said. A Swift reaction in currency markets to the changing political picture shows Barrows opinion is shared widely by other  24 hours of Shevardnadze a resignation the Dollar moved 3 a pfennig higher against the German Mark a from 1,478 Marks on wednesday to 1.5125 Marks late thursday Friday after noon the Buck closed at 1.5205 Marks on the Frankfurt Germany currency Exchange this weekends military Exchange rate in Germany stands at 1,48 Marks a gain of three pfennig. The Dollar also edged higher against the British Pound. The Pound closed at $1,8840 Friday while earlier. Tii the week one Pound had been Worth $1.93,. A. R a a a a. Dollar watch Randy Mcclain munis t Rule in Eastern a a factors that will play a role in where the Dollar trades in the Days to come Are who is chosen to replace Shevardnadze As soviet foreign minister what happens in the soviet unions relationship with the United states and what happens in the persian Gulf. Barrow said the threat of War with Iraq should help the Dollar investors will flock to the Buck As a Haven if a conflict erupts he said adding that War seems More Likely to him with every passing Day one word of warning though. The British expert said the Buck will continue to be weighed Down by horrible economic news in the United states. That could push the Dollar lower again especially if the soviet Union s Trou Hies disappear of. It a peaceful Resolution is achieved m the Gulf crisis for the time being though look for the Buck to move higher perhaps reaching a new trading Range Between 1.56 Marks and 1.60 Marks in Germany by Early next year he said la Star and strip. A a a. A. A a. A a. Ass Vinco Crawley Nimberg area businessman Fred brain Klein stands to one of the rental units at his hotel. With him is one of his managers Patricia Davis whose cd husband is heading to the Middle East this month. On go by Randy Mcclain financial writer Levy so my is having second thoughts about his decision to buy a fast food restaurant near Pioneer Cavern in Hanau Germany Over the summer. Barbecue Loving soldiers attached to the 3rd army div made some s investment in the a place for ribs i miss look like a smart move at first but All that began to change w Hen Iraq invaded neighbouring Kuwait. Today with much of the 3rd, army div boarding transport planes bound for saudi Arabia so my sees his customers and potential profits flying South. Quot the americans Are 99.9 percent of my business a he said a if 1 knew then what i know now 1  have bought this place a a a some s predicament is not unique a Small army of Busi Ness owners Many of whom have grown Rich catering to american service members in Europe Are staring failure in the face As soldiers head off to what could be War. Even business owners who think they can survive Sci eral months of combat in the Middle East admit to being nervous about How much Money  lose while waiting for their customers to return. Quot i believe you la see a lot of the companies Over Here whose main clientele is the . Military going through some ,�?� said Tom Johnson european Man Ager for ge1co car insurance. Quot a lot of the smaller companies Are going to wind up folding their  Quot its Gonna be a ghost town. Tumbleweeds will Start flying through Dodge a said Kevin Kuchta a travel agent in Kirch guns Germany where a Large deployment of army troops is taking place. Kuchta said his office has been swamped by Calls from soldiers cancelling Holiday flights to the United states in recent weeks and he expects business to get even worse. Among companies that fear the worst arc new car dealerships Auto insurance firms travel agencies retailers restaurants and bars. Also affected Are financial institutions that make car Loans and personal joans to. Service members and their families Kenny shove office manager with a amp a Tours in Kaiserslautern Germany said his company has seen a 15 percent decline in Revenue since the Start of opera Tion desert shield. He thinks the Agency can outlast troubled times. Quot but Overall we do feel it a shove said. A people Are hesitant to Book trips a the Auto Exchange a firm that Sells Honda Nissan Mazda and other foreign cars in the military Market said its sales were Down 15 percent in november compared with a year earlier. And company officials Are worried that losses will mount Ifa full scale War develops. Quot when you take 60,000 or 70,000 people out of the marketplace it would be sticking our head in the Sand. To say we wont be affected a said Tim Bourke european general manager for the firm. Bourke said Auto Exchange has instituted a selective hiring freeze and Cut expenses to Cope with hard times. In recent weeks advertising has been slashed by 50 percent some sales offices have been put in Mothballs and the company is negotiating with landlords for reduced rents on other new ear showrooms. Elsewhere a few business owners say they have already Given up Hope. When soldiers from Ayers Cavern in Kirch guns leave for saudi Arabia after Christmas Karin Zuber and her husband will close the snack bar they opened across the Street from the army Post five years ago. A when everyone leaves we have to close Quot Zuber said. A a it a very  a few , business at. Will a clothing store is also slow. Sales took an immediate nose dive when word came that Kirch gun so service members were to be sent to the Gulf. A. A a _ customers Arentt thinking of flashy european fashions these Days said sales clerk Karin Rivera who is losing her Job As a result of the  customers say a where in a going 1 done to need Winter  a Quot you can to survive Selling one or two sweaters a Day a she said pointing to desert shield and the weak Dollar As the chief reasons for the slowdown. Quot the German goods Are too expensive especially for the lower ranked sol Diers a a. A. -. A a / a / a a. Quot Quot Fred ,.wbo owns ii variety of businesses in Firth Germany said he could lose As much As 80 percent of his income each month that the standoff with Iraq drags on. In a Normal year fan Klein makes $2 million from running an american hotel Selling Auto insurance renting videocassettes and. Leasing cars. A i Haven t Felt a big Impact yet a he said a but it could hit me in the new year1991 is where the question Mark  a t Quot a / a / a a surprisingly a few firms in Europe say they have actually made Short term gains because of the Middle East situation. Among the big winners have been photo studios and stores that sell comic books. In Nurnberg Stuart Shupe of the finder Barracks arts and crafts Center said he sold $ 1.5 h Worth of family portraits to desert shield families the first two weeks of december. That a three times the amount of Money he usually makes in an entire month. Quot i had to juggle my schedule fro working one or two Days a week to working five Days to meet the increased requests for unit pictures and traditional family portraits a Shupe said. _ Frank Massard owner of american comics in Nurnberg said deploying gis Are stocking up on funny books in record numbers to help pass the time in the a desert. A a a a  other companies in Europe Are trying to win Points with customers by offering special discounts to service members on the Way to the Gulf of family members left behind such a move provides businesses with a Chance to paint themselves in a patriotic Light while giving soldiers and family members Good deals. A amp a Tours plans to focus on those left behind by offering desert shield family members a series of budget bus trips to several european pleasure spots including Paris and Prague. The company says it wont make a profit on the Rock Bottom prices it will offer. Military car sales the firm that Sells .-made automobiles through army and air Force Exchange service outlets has started offering $500 rebates to customers with orders to go to the persian Gulf. The offer serves two purposes said Jeff Gardner an executive with the firm in  gives the Soldier a Good Deal and hopefully it will stimulate business a he said. Contributing to Titi report to late writer Chuck Roberta Gary Pomeroy i a Effla Bathen