European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 4, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 10 the stars and stripes a a Friday january 4, 1991anthony Lewis Jan. 15 augurs Early death of Bush s vision it is like film in slow motion. Any time after Jan., 15 there May be a War with terrible human and political consequences. We move toward that deadline trance like As if there were no Way out. President hush would plainly prefer not to use military Force lie has threatened War on Iraq in order to avoid it a to Perside Saddam Hussein that he must withdraw front Kuwait. Hut the strategy Trafis put hush in a Box and with him the International coalition that he rallied to resist iraqis aggression. If the Jan 15 deadline passes without a Resolution of the crisis and hush does not then soon use Force some will Call him that is the result no doubt unintended of the Date set by the . Security Council at his Behest it is a deadline not Only for Saddam Hussein but for George Bush pushing him and the world toward War. cannot be too late for Bush and the rest of us to think dearly about the consequences of War. It never can be. Think of the effect a War of the enormous forces arrayed in the persian Gulf would have on the Hope that hush has raised in the crisis. V that is theh Ophof what he Calls a a new world order a of Colletia insecurity against International aggression. A or Nykl be justified As necessary to establish the collective Security but it could have the . So professor Stanley Hoffmann warns Jyh a compelling article in the latest new York review of a. _ a a. .7&Quot, Quot. ,. An All out War with its Likely devastation of the middie East would turn Many members of the present anti Iraq coalition against the idea of collective Security a Wolfmann argues a a a. A. And it would affect american same Way. A collective Security will be the casualty not the Winner a he writes a if we lose a sense of proportion if we launch a War that will Divide the coalition and the Public far More than a protracted Reliance on sanctions.-. R Only a miraculously successful War a a Swift Victory through a limited resort to Force a would dispel All these dangers. Miracles rarely happen. A any other kind of War risks pushing states away from collective Security and a with predominantly american losses on the , Side a almost ensures that the . Will no again provide the leadership required to make it work.�?�. It he alternative to marching on toward War is Diplo. Macy. And again it cannot be too late for that course. Bush s idea of sending Secretary of state James a. Baker 111 to Baghdad Lor talks is stymied now by Saddam a proposal of a Jan. 12 Dale while hush insisted on nothing later than Jan. 3. _ hut when he originally suggested the talks on 30, Bush said they could be held a at a mutually convenient Date Between dec. 15 and Jan. 15.�?� nor is diplomacy excluded by the apparently irreconcilable positions of the parties today. There is As much room for Man Euver Here As. There was in the cuban missile crisis and other grave moments of International tension. For example Bush has rightly rejected Saddam s attempt to link the Gulf crisis to the palestinian Issue As if he had invaded Kuwa Ait to help the palestinians. Hut Bush could on his own do what he wants to do anyway. Propose a new initiative for Arab israeli peace. Or another example Bush says that any partial iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait would be inadequate. It would be. A Quot but rep. Les Aspin chairman of the House armed. Services committee who has been very supportive of the hush policy is surely right when lie says that Ameri cans would then be unlikely to a believe that War was still necessary. A. A if Saddam refused to leave say the disputed islands and Oil Field sanctions on his Oil exports would simply continue. The Jan. 15 deadline really raises a question about George Bush docs he have the inner strength to be patient. A. A. A will he understand and be Able to convey that his undo iraqis aggression does not require immediate War Quot a. Bush told time Magazine in a year end interview a a a i know the Promise of a new world order if it is done right. I know the devastating effect on the world if it is done yes. But the a a wrong that would have a devastating effect is premature wart a giving a free rein to aggression would turn the world into a Jungle a Hoffmann writes. Quot a would the equation of collective Security with the kind of All out War that rules out _. A new York times a. William Safi re forecaster s fortunes due for swing in 91 disregard last year it was not my finest prognostic Ting hour. I was right about the bust to recession and the sudden German unification but wrong about everything else. W serve me no Humble pie. When Dolph Camilli the Brooklyn dodgers Home run hitter struck out three times in a Row we in the ebbets Field bleachers used to nod sagely and say a a he a in 1491, i m due. So tier goes 1. The supreme court will overturn All Blit one of the following lower court decisions a rust is. Sullivan the gag Rule on abortion rights advice b Hoard of de. Is. Dowell in which school systems Are forever run by courts a International Union is Johnson controls permitting companies to discriminate against women for their own Protection d Masson is. Malcolm denying interviewees libel claims pick the one that the court affirms and you get to pick the Black female strict constructionist to replace Thurgood marshal on the supreme court. 2. The non fiction blockbuster of the year w ill be a Clark Cliffords autobiography b Scotty Reston s autobiography c Harry Truman a biography by David Mccullough d Suzanne garments Quot the politics of scandal Quot which leads us to e a one of us a Tom Wickers stunning reassessment of Richard Nixon. 3. Novel of the Yea will be a a a prize possessions by Avery Corniani about Date rape b a a you la never eat lunch in this town again by Julia Phillips for its ravenous title c a a trial by Clifford Irving for its sure fire a megabucks movie Sale d a a the Longie by Lnorman Mailer about the Cia for breaking ground As the first $30.spy novel and e John be carrels a it he secret Pilgrim a the last spy novel. A a 4. Winner of the 1401 Nobel peace prize will be a vytautas Landsbergis of Lithuania for resisting the great Gorbachev crackdown b James a. Baker Iii. For his last minute Deal with Saddam i Lus Sein c George flush for establishing a new world order by decisively defeating aggression. A 5, the looming Issue in the coming presidential elections will Bea who egregiously tried to undercut the president in waging a successful War b who a wisely tried to prevent the president from wading into a quagmire c quotas As the paradigm for civil rights overreach d Sta pression. H. Most surprising Winner in world order War i will be Quot a Iraq by identifying with the worlds losers b Turkey received into the european Community by a guilty Germany after it shortens the War with a second front c Israel which gets hit first through Jordan then lets Pat estonians found their East Bank state d the kurd whose time la uprising earns them a free Kurdistan at last. Quot a _ z political fallout from the War in the United states will be led by a democratic investigations into the appeasement of Saddam Hussein before Kuwait b indictments in february Quot of merchants of death who used taxpayer guaranteed dollars to ship nuclear weaponry to Iraq financed through the Atlanta. c an amalgam of defense. Cutters shocked at tire waste and ineffectiveness of our weaponry revealed in the desert War. Quot 8. Democratic front runner will be a Sam Nunn Foremost military. Sec Ond Guesser chaining himself to the Gates of burning tree club in egalitarian protest b Mario Cuomo talking to the Skull of poor a i Orick his Campaign manager c , running for the Crom Vel Quot Lian role As great protector a Patriot Gore Green thumb up e Gen. H. Nor Man ethelred the Unready Schwarz Kopf Matching the slows of civil a Gen. George a Mcclellan. 9. The Economy Quot in the be conf half o 1991 will a sink into the worst recession since the last one with Dow Industrial plunging below 2,000 b be whips Wei by growing unemployment and inflation better balance of Payne ends and w ors deficits with the Dow at present level c be out of the Woods and off to a be Boom the Stock average breaking throng 3,000, in time for the �?T92 conventions. 10. Mikhail Gorbachev will be a straddling improvising balancing Force As the indispensable Man b Takin a a Stern measures Quot the world will see a stalinism with flair c tired by Yeltsin Soutchek Shevard Naize reformers of lowing Public revulsion after a blood crackdown d ousted by the Kab a run party Appart after refusing to order the army to lire at separatists. My picks id 2c, 3c, 4a, 5a, 6d. 7b, 81 9c, 10c. A now York times a a a a
