European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - June 4, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Tuesday june 4, 1991 the stars and stripes a Page 13 a Ai a a a a. A commentary Leslie h. Gel gunslingers Are on target with soviet plan Bush administration bureaucrats arc not i Thusia Stic about grand plans for big Western Bucks to Aid soviet reforms. They say they need More details. There a a Surprise. A the bureaucrats a diplomats political appointees or civil servants a Are pessimistic about the soviet capacity to Reform. Arentt we All they Are also doubtful that the United states and others can produce the necessary Money. Nothing like a Good doubt when it comes to Cash. The last time the National Security bureaucracy transcended doubts and pessimism about big ideas was in 1947. Then in the Flash of weeks state department bureaucrats fashioned the Truman doctrine to contain communism and the Marshall plan to provide Aid to Western  almost 45 years later and with the threat to peace Quot coming from soviet weakness and not soviet strength the bureaucrats mostly wring their hands. Now when aides say president Bush May Well be interested in a new big idea to Ward off chaos once again administration experts want to wait and Sec. Into this vacuum leaped two intellectual entrepreneurs Grigory Zavlinsky a soviet economist and former minister of the russian Republic and Graham Allison a Harvard political scientist and former Dean of its Kennedy school. They had an idea that the West and Moscow share a vital interest in promoting political pluralism and Market reforms in the soviet Union and that they need a common plan to encourage Quick and hard  Moscow. The two principal framers of this plan Are actually a pair of idea gunslingers the Type the bureaucracy loves to Squash or assign to policy planning staffs. A a a a a a a a a a a a Zavlinsky acclaimed for his we Stern style economic skills sounds like the next generation russian politician a Man with plans he would like to implement himself lie. Is preparing himself to talk to people not bureaucrats. Asked last week about soviet investment policy Quot he answered a in order to invest it is necessary to have Money and be have neither Money nor  Allison is part scholar and part Salesman. Not Content with just having an idea he always wants to sell it. He can open democratic and Republican doors. That makes him a Good counterpart for Zavlinsky Alvo seems to be representing both Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin. A for a month now the Allison Zavlinsky duo and its impressive binational brain Trust have been   a plan. It starts with the premise that a Complete fragmentation of the soviet Union and the reversion of its parts to authoritarianism could have catastrophic consequences several soviet republics with nuclear arms locked in power., struggles Vith one another and their neighbors. Refugees flooding into Eastern Europe unsettling those fragile countries. Many Pentagon and White House officials play Down these alarms fortunately state department and cat bureaucrats take the risks most seriously. But the experts and their Bosses preoccupy themselves with smaller decisions like whether to provide $1.5 billion in new food Export credits or whether to.  to the West s economic Summit talks. The Allison Zavlinsky team sees these issues As sideshows. To them nothing less than a great vision and a comprehensive joint blueprint can help a dying yet dangerous Empire make the transition to democracy and free Enterprise. To them Moscow will not make Tough choices without the Prospect of help along the Way. And they Are right. T hey Are also hard headed and practical to Advance their vision in stages with Western Aid dependent at each stage on soviet performance. No performance no Money. T hey should also insist on replacing  with Tel Dimeis they have not officially revealed the i ice lag but expect between.$15 billion and $50 billion yearly mostly Lor consumer goods and infrastructure Over foe  a a _ a a a a. A i hat is a Small Coin to implant in Edoms diminish soviet military spending one of the conditions and a forestall the potential costs of chaos on the  continent. A bureaucrats in Washington Ami Moscow  on a a the sidelines of such great threats and opportunities at Quot such moments great leaders will ignore them Ami pm Brace the intellectual gunslingers. A.  York Timon. 1 Alison Mitchell after months of backsliding toward repression and More orthodox communism president Mikhail s. Gorbachev is once again reaching out to soviet liberals and Western leaders in an about face that soviets have dubbed the a second . A the  tone  time to prevent an embarrassing dissonance when Gorbachev delivers his Nobel peace prize speech wednesday in Oslo a was symbolized by three events last w Eek a Margaret Tia Cher. The former British prime minister threw her support behind Gorbachev a request to attend next months economic Summit of the. Group of seven industrialized nations. Visiting Moscow state University she also lectured students about Gorbachev achievements. A please do not underestimate the enormous advances in political terms in the soviet  she said. A Valentin Pavlov the same soviet prime minister who recently accused Western Banks of plotting to overthrow Gorbachev by ruining the soviet Economy placed before the soviet parliament legislation allowing foreign companies to have full ownership of soviet factories. A russian president Boris Yeltsin Gorbachev s most bitter critic said of a recent session with the soviet president a we did not. Exchange a single unpleasant word. This Quot was most  Gorba Cheyz a rapprochement with Yeltsin s lib ends Quot As Well As his latest entreaties to the West follows a turbulent Winter of military repression in the Baltic est Ilat ing strikes and political  by april All sides of the soviet political spectrum were demanding Gorbachev s  at his most vulnerable moment Gorbachev struck an unexpected Deal with the leaders of nine republics including Yeltsin. A a in a joint declaration the Jepy Iblis gave Gorbachev their consent to a new treaty of the Union to hold together the fractious soviet nation. The Republican presidents who had popular credibility that Gorbachev lacked also pledged to seek an end to crippling strikes in major industries. A Gorbachev in Ade Many Concession on Power sharing with the republics. He also agreed to draft a new soviet Constitution and follow up with new elections to the National Congress As Well As the  pop. Ular election of the soviet president. The agreement. Soviet political figures Quot Sav. W As born out of a realization by got Baches and Yeltsin that they had hit a Ilane Erous standoff that peaked in late March when 100, pro Yeltsin demonstrators in Moscow confronted 50,00 1 troops deployed by Gorbachev. Only restraint on both sides prevented blood shed. A a a a the determination of the crowds to defy Gorbachev also underscored that the traditional communist methods of repression and intimidation no longer Quot  january a censorship of Central television nor the use of troops against secessionist governments in. Lathe mania and  reinstalled fear. The other Factor driving the rapprochement was the Ever accelerating disintegration of the soviet Economy which is expected to contract by As much As 15 percent this year. Quot March and april brought the county to the Brink of social Shock and that triggered the mechanism of self preservation Quot Gorbachev said last week in the kazakh capital of Alma Ata. Quot what concerns us  continued decline of the Economy a our country has never experienced such a  not All the issues Between Gorbachev and the republics Are settled. \ Yeltsin told supporters saturday that the leaders Are still battling Over whether tile Quot Central government or Only the ipuh lev will be allo cd to Lew taxes. Yeltsin said he also wants Russia a and not Gorbachev scentral government a to control a greater share of its Gold and Oil resources and to have jurisdiction Over the military plants on its territory. A key figure who has re emerged is Grigory Zavlinsky one of the Young lib eral economists whom Gorbachev scorned last fall when he rejected u pig for a rapid shift toward a Market Economy in.500 Days. Be u a .1._ Iii consultation with a team of  pro lessors. Zavlinsky has been drafting a program called the �?ogreat-.-. Bargain which would tic a soviet transition it. Ward a Market Economy Job infusions of Western Aid. Jeffrey Sachs an economist helping draft the plan has said the West should provide $30 billion annually Over five years to help the soviet Union with the transition away irom Central planning a in Irala. T he opinions expressed in the columns., and cartoons on this Page represent those of the authors and Are in no Way to he considered As representing the views of t he stars and. Stripes or the United states government