European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - August 20, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Coup in the Kremlin by David Tarrant and Meridith Winder staff writers the Long feared ouster of soviet president Mikhail s. Gorbachev could pose grave consequences for his Long standing policy of East West cooperation on arms control and other military issues according to defense experts. Just last month Gorbachev and president Bush met in Moscow to sign the strategic arms reduction treaty and Bush was among the leaders of the Western Industrial democracies who met with Gorbachev in London earlier in the month. In both summits Gorbachev made it Clear that he wanted to move soviet relations with the West in a new direction a toward closer economic cooperation a and that he hoped to continue on the path of Reform he had started at Home. A now those policies along with Gorbachev s longstanding approach of detente with the West have been thrown into question by mondays coup according to defense leaders and experts. Quot the recent developments in the soviet Union Are reasons for great concern Quot said nato Secretary general Manfred Werner. Quot allies Are monitoring the situation very. Closely and Are in an intensive and constant process of exchanging information and  nato political officials and the organization s 16 ambassadors held emergency meetings throughout monday to discuss the situation according to an Alliance spokesman. But even As tanks rolled through Moscow defense experts stopped Short of saying the coup would automatically trigger a renewal of cold War Era tension. For one thing the soviets have last much of their military stature in recent years. Quot is this going to mean a resurgence of the cold War my answer is  said Don Kerr a military analyst with the British firm control risks group. Quot they might want to reestablish the line of thinking that went along with the cold War of being suspicious of the West. But to redraw a line of confrontation Down through Central Europe and pull the Genie of All out War out of the bottle a no i Don t think they can do  soviet military capability has changed radically in the last five years with the destruction of the superpowers intermediate Range nuclear missiles and the withdrawal of much of the soviet military forces from Eastern Europe. Quot can the soviet Union reinvent the Warsaw pact its military deployments have withdrawn and what s left is not of any significance. Most of those units have been withdrawn and demobilized. Even if they returned to service you a have to wonder about their motivation and their state of training Quot Kerr said. In addition the new soviet leaders will Likely go to great lengths during this period of internal instability to try to assure the United states that there will be no great change in foreign and military policy said Bill Wallace director of the school of soviet and East european studies at Scotland s University of Glasgow. A i done to see its in the interest of either Side to get Back into tensions Quot he said. Quot both sides have economic problems to . Nevertheless the coup is already raising tension and suspicions a even if they have not yet reached cold War Levels. Quot this presents a spectacular problem for Western leaders Quot said Francis Tusa London based european editor for the armed forces journal. Quot with new people running the show Well have to wait to see what happens with the soviet  a Henry Dodds editor of Jane a defence intelligence review said he has questions about the status of the remaining 330,000 soviet troops in Germany. Quot we re wondering if their status of Alert has changed and if there will be a slowdown on withdrawing forces from Germany Quot he said. A. A e recent tit developments in the soviet Union Ere reasons for great concern. Allies Are monitoring Ore situation very closely and Are in an intensive and constant process of exchanging information and assessments a Manfred a timer nato Secretary general soviet leaders said they will Honor any present treaties but that does not cover those still under negotiation Quot the recessed talks on conventional forces in Europe will probably not make any Progress if they reconvene Quot said Andrew Duncan an analyst with the London based International Institute for strategic studies. Quot i also Don t think there will be a ratification of the conventional forces treaty or the strategic arms reduction treaty Quot Duncan added. Quot it s in the West a interest to see ratification but i doubt if the american Congress will ratify it with the current  however it would be in the soviet Union s interest to keep its Ward on arms control agreements said a defense analyst at Sandhurst military Academy in Sandhurst England. A Quot i would not foresee a Radical change vis a vis what was agreed to by the government. They have to be cautious. They want the world to see this As an internal situation Quot said the analyst a military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity _ Quot but 1 would not anticipate any new agreements Riff he Short run Quot he said. After four years of arms control Progress there was Quot a fairly Strong feeling Quot that both superpowers were going to slow Down after the signing of Start last month anyway Wallace said. Quot Gorbachev had pushed real hard to get Start Quot Wallace said Quot after Start it was a question of where do we All go from  a Kerr said that the major casualty resulting from Gorbachev s ouster would probably be the Brief period of East West cooperation in dealing with regional hot spots around the world. At the july Summit for example Gorbachev and Bush agreed to push for a Middle East peace conference in october.  cooperation was also an important part of the persian Gulf War coalition. Quot this is the one area in which it is possible there could be a change Quot he said Quot one of the interesting aspects of International diplomacy is How the cooperation of the . And the .s.r. Has led to achievement of things which heretofore was impossible. Its anyone s guess How the situation in the persian Gulf would have turned out if the soviet Union had not gone along with Western Powers Quot but it would mean Quot political suicide Quot for the soviet Union to try to exert dominance Oyer Eastern Europe and involve itself in Yugoslavia s civil War for example Wallace said Quot they be got too Many problems in their own republics Quot he said. Quot if anything they see the lesson of the War in. Yugoslavia As being that the yugoslavian army did not move fast enough to put Down the rebellious republics Quot overthrow was inevitable two soviet watchers say by Randy Pruitt staff writer soviet Leader Michael s. Gorbachev s fall from Power was inevitable and should come As no Surprise according to two University of Maryland professors who specialize in soviet affairs. A even though the timing May come As a Surprise the fact that he has been ousted should not be such a Shock to Many people. His position had been precarious for quite some time Quot said Josef Goeke who teaches history and political science. James Herzog a retired Navy officer who served eight years with nato s International staff said he predicted five years ago that Gorbachev would not stay in Power beyond the summer of 1992. Quot that was based upon the premise that he could not overcome the Power of the army the Kab and the party. And these Are exactly the same people who be run him out Quot Herzog said. Both experts said the soviet people Long shortchanged on consumer goods Are looking for a strongman who can perform miracles. Quot the credibility of Gorbachev in that particular sector has suffered so fantastically in the last few years Quot Goeke said. Quot a number of soviet citizens May be relieved because they think it cannot become worse Quot but the reforms people seek will take decades rather than years no matter who is in Power the professors said. Quot former soviet foreign minister Eduard a Shevardnadze telegraphed the punch Early in the game when he worked out with . Secretary of state James Baker All the arms agreements Quot Herzog said. Quot the military was not even in on the  since then soviet military authorities have dragged their feet on complying with the arms agreements he said. Quot arms production has actually increased since the treaties were signed. The military refuses to give in to the decision  Goeke said Gorbachev s overthrow is definitely a step Back for democratic forces in the soviet Union. Quot the trouble is. We Are not witnessing an overthrow of a democratic regime but rather the stalling of something in the stale of development Quot he said. Quot genuine democratic foundations were never firmly established and the so called parliamentary system that was established is not  Herzog and Goeke said potential hot spots Are Armenia the Ukraine and the Baltic republics Quot any conservative movement Means basically a partial return to the old principle of Russia undivided and holy Quot Goeke said. Quot a nationalistic concept May be somewhat revived but the republics won t Swallow it. There can be no full  and a Frontier conflict might escalate to full scale War the two men said. Quot the likelihood of a civil War is there and if it Breaks out it would break out in such places As Georgia the Ukraine and the Baltic states Quot Herzog said. A Gorbachev has worked out with All these republics to give them More autonomy and the people in the communist party done to want to give up that centralized  Herzog believes Boris n. Yeltsin the progressive president of the russian Republic is probably next in line to be deposed. However both men said that they have seen no attempt to revive the Warsaw pact. Quot that a dead Quot Herzog said. A and you be got world War Iii almost instantaneously if the russians try to reassert their position in those former East bloc  lagging soviet Economy a i Quot or.  prices on a wide Range of goods and services were increased april 2 from 250% to 1,000%. Black Market prices have risen faster. As of March the soviet Union s foreign debt had risen to $60 billion up from $55 billion last june. The National budget deficit jumped 230% in the first Quarter of 1991 compared to the same period last year. In the first four months of 1991, Industrial production dropped 5.4% and the soviet equivalent of Gross National product plunged 10%. Last year the state statistics committee said 24.8 million soviets were unemployed out of a National population of 289 million. A Brlan Garrigan by Michael Parks the los Angeles times the apparent right Wing Putsch that ousted president Mikhail s. Gorbachev Early monday puts into immediate question All the reforms a in political economic and foreign policy a that the soviet Leader had implemented in his six years in Power. In proclaiming Gennady i. Kanayev Gorbachev a vice president the new soviet president and declaring a six month state of emergency to halt the country a slide into Quot chaos and anarchy Quot the new committee for the state of emergency made Clear it blames Gorbachev and his perestroika policies for the country s Quot profound  the crisis itself is not in dispute a Gorbachev himself had spoken of it in the most dire terms a but the causes analysis and the remedies were highly contentious and undoubtedly led to Gorbachev s removal. The committee led by prominent soviet conservatives promised to take the Quot most decisive measures Quot to pull the country Back from what it called the Brink of Quot civil strife Quot and these most Likely will Start with concerted military and police actions to assert its authority. Tough measures Are also Likely to follow to restore the much diminished authority of the soviet communist party to slow modernization of the country a Economy under the Central government bureaucracy and to prevent the devolution of Power that Gorbachev envisioned As the new constitutional basis for the country. The committee s very first pronouncements appeared to Bear out the warning that had come late last week from Alexandern Yakovlev one of Gorbachev s closest advisers through the perestroika Era that a right Wing coup was imminent. The pressure had been building from the hard right Over the past year with Gorbachev mane vering through the Spring and Early summer to gain the upper hand As Gorbachev left for vacation in the Crimea Early this month one of his aides said confidently Quot the storm has broken. We wont have Clear sailing but the political weather is finally free from real . Gorbachev in fact had lived with this conservative resistance from the moment he began his political and economic reforms six years ago. However until the apparent coup he had always managed to keep his opponents in Check with Superb tactical adroitness. But with growing vehemence and directness the conservatives accused him of forsaking the principles of the 1917 russian revolution and the seven decades of communism that followed to their minds the 60-year-old Leader had been putting the soviet Union on the Road toward capitalism and forming an Alliance with its old Quot class enemies Quot in the West t their criticism had Long ago spilled out of the old corridors of Power in the Kremlin and into the supreme soviet the press and even the streets last autumn Gorbachev had been beaten into a major political Retreat when the hard liners a a powerful Alliance of communist party conservatives the army and Security forces and the country s military Industrial Complex a forced him to abandon plans for a Radical economic overhaul. Through the Winter the right exacted further concessions from Gorbachev including his nomination last december of Kanayev As vice president. Only through forming an Alliance in the Spring with Boris n. Yeltsin the populist president of the russian federation the country a largest Republic was Gorbachev Able to recover. He had managed to win agreement from nine of the country s republics on a Union treaty that would have Laid a new political and constitutional basis for the country that treaty was to have been signed this week and that May have prompted the conservatives to act before Gorbachev s scheduled return to Moscow on monday. Conservatives had already denounced the treaty in the supreme soviet the country s legislature As a move Likely to Lead to the soviet Union s Complete dissolution As a nation. They will now probably move to reassert soviet authority in the breakaway Baltic republics of Estonia Latvia and Lithuania and in other such Independence minded regions As Armenia Georgia and even in Yeltsin s sprawling russian Republic. In foreign policy Gorbachev had just hosted president Bush and signed a historic treaty reducing the superpowers strategic nuclear arsenals by nearly a third. He had gone to London for a meeting with the group of seven leading Industrial nations to discuss the soviet Union s integration into the world  those moves like earlier foreign policy initiatives had added to the conservative backlash As the military and Many other people saw their country humbled before one time foes Gorbachev a latest vision a a communist party that would no longer be based on marxism leninism a was to have been debated at a special party Congress in november or december. That Congress if it is held As scheduled appears Likely to launch a Quot corrective movement Quot marking the party s return to socialist orthodoxy will ouster usher in new cold our by Barry Schweid the associated press after initial doubts the United states embraced soviet president Mikhail s. Gorbachev As a genuine reformer and supported wholeheartedly his attempts to Force the soviet Economy and political system into step with modern times. With Gorbachev now gone and hard liners in control the Bush administration is scrambling to understand the future. The question is this will the gains of the Gorbachev Era unravel less than three weeks ago president Bush and Gorbachev signed an agreement to sharply reduce their stockpiles of Long Range nuclear weapons. Together they announced they would sponsor a peace conference in october to try to resolve the Fong simmering Arab Lar Ali conflict. Those two actions symbolized the new .-soviet relationship curb the military and seek peaceful solutions. With tanks roiling into Moscow on monday both the arms treaty and the peace conference seem remole. The White House scrambled to understand the new soviet leadership a composite of military Kab and political conservatives. Quot these Guys Are the representatives of the very hard old line Quot said Robert Conquest a senior research fellow at the Hoover institution the Bush administration had put its Faith in Gorbachev and his reforms. At the Moscow Summit late last month Bush went out of his Way to Praise Gorbachev As a Leader who Quot inspires great Confidence in  but with customary caution Bush held off from providing direct infusions of . Financial assistance despite Gorbachev s own warnings of dire consequences should the West Tail to help him. Gorbachev also had Bush s sympathy As he tried to keep the fractious soviet republics from flying apart As Independence movements surfaced in the Baltic soviet Georgia the Ukraine and other areas swept up in nationalism and ethnic rivalries. The Bush administration counselled Gorbachev to seek peaceful solutions to the Independence drives but gave tacit approval to the secessionists in Lithuania Latvia and Estonia. At first Bush and his top aides took a sceptical stance toward Gorbachev questioning his commitment to Reform and suggesting that his overriding objective was to strengthen the communist system. But As Gorbachev proceeded to undercut traditional communist doctrine permitting contested elections and steering the soviets toward Market Economy wariness gave Way to almost enthusiastic approval. A candid exposition of the soviets economic woes and the decision to permit East Germany to swing out of the soviet orbit reinforced the administration s Faith in Gorbachev s leadership. Yet when such reformers As former foreign minister Eduard a. Shevardnadze and Alexander Yakovlev quit warning that the country could be headed into a reactionary reversal questions were raised in the administration about Gorbachev s staying Power. Now those fears have been realized. How much this largely cooperative superpower relationship will change is not immediately apparent. A most critical would be signals regarding the military. Will the new leaders retract Gorbachev s pledges to reduce troops and weapons in Europe will they Honor the freshly signed strategic arms reduction treaty which requires a 35 percent reduction in soviet Long Range nuclear bombers missiles and submarines and finally will the cold War begin anew Page 4 b the stars and stripes tuesday August 20, 1991 the stars and stripes b Page 5