European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 28, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse Tuesday january 28, 1992 the stars and stripes b Page 13 commentary William f. Buckley Urbush backsliding on Reagan accomplishments Milton Friedman will be 80 before the year is out. He has a new Book coming out in the next few months twice has had heart surgery and spent last week at Alta Utah skiing at altitudes of 10,000 feet though he will Tell you that he has intimations of mortality now that his Friend and colleague the great economic historian George Stigler a another Nobel laureate a is dead. Friedman is almost certainly the most influential economist since John Maynard Keynes and is ready to oblige with a Little tour do horizon of the economic scene. It is to understate the Case to say that he is disappointed with the performance of president Bush. Why he cites several reasons. Under president Reagan the executive was committed to several goals 1 no increase in taxes 2 deregulation and 3 reduced Federal spending. The budget act of 1990 was a Gross violation of an understanding Bush had inherited from Reagan and had himself reaffirmed with his famous statement about the Resolution of his lips. The tax increase reasons Friedman has the effect of diminishing what Adam Smith called the a animal spirits of entrepreneurs who feel that once again it cannot be predicted what their efforts will yield in the Way of income in the future. To plan and to invest without any certainty that in the future Congress wont impose new taxes is to Gamble on other than economic Success in the marketplace. What tends to happen is what he Calls a sleepy Money a sharply to be distinguished from the entrepreneurial zest associated with a vigorous Economy. He would like to see the Complete abolition of capital gains taxes but More important even than that says Friedman is the indexation of capital gains. But he sharply opposes any attempt at retroactive application of capital gains Relief on the grounds that merely to calculate the taxable Rise in value would be impossibly Complex. Reforms should apply beginning the Day the appropriate legislation is signed. On the matter of regulation Friedman notes that by the end of his term Reagan had reduced the sheer number of Federal regulations to 50,000 per year from 90,000. These Are now Back up to 80,000. The clean air act and the disabilities act Are invitations to a nest of regulations out of any proportion to benefits presumed. The continuing dependence on action by the Federal government augurs difficulties in the Days ahead. The size of the Federal debt is not an important Factor in bringing on a recession Money spent paying interest on that debt is probably the a a Healthiest govern and of course Federal spending has increased beyond what was necessary to pay off the a amp a debt. The government is spending More than 25 percent of Gnu up More than two Points from the Reagan years. The Fea eral Reserve Board has indeed killed substantial inflation and probably there wont be any for two or three years. But it underestimated the amount of Money a healthy Economy needed and that is one cause of the current recession. A has economic science developed to the Point of insuring against the recessions associated with the Busi Ness Cycle a no. Economic science has developed to the Point of giving us the knowledge necessary to forestall deep depressions and runaway inflation. But the business Cycle will be with us always and is comparable to human behaviour which cannot be predicted. What about jump starting our Way out of the current mess there is one Way to do this and Only one Way Friedman says. It is to print Money. The trouble with doing this of course is that you Pav Down the line. It is merely an invitation to inflation in the years ahead. Probably such inflation is in store for us in any event says Friedman Given that politics almost inevitably influences the activities of the Central Banks. When debt soars As ours has done and legislative remedies arc not taken then the great temptation is there diminish the debt by the simple process of diminishing the value of the Dollar. Everyone then pays that debt which becomes insignificant. Milton Friedman greatly fears the political attraction of tariffs and suggests that Reagan a primary delinquency was in allowing the Tariff creep that now seeks to protect us but instead imposes burdens on the american consumer. Do you remember what the economist Henry George said about tariffs a country at War with another country attempts to Boycott Commerce to that country. A country at peace when engaged in protectionism Levels identical policies against itself. C Universal press syndic Oleslie h. Gel iraqi rebellion a no win situation for . President Bush could be trapping himself into a lose lose strategy of overthrowing Saddam Hussein in much the same Way he cornered himself with the a jobs jobs jobs strategy on his recent trip to Japan. By insisting on jobs japanese leaders could not give him Bush forced himself to Bash and Bow and ended up looking weak and failing. By letting his aides talk of helping anti Saddam groups with . Military Power Bush puts himself in a situation where he will either have to act rashly or be culpable indecisive. If iraqis Rise against Saddam and . Forces intervene to Back them Bush will look As if he is sacrificing american lives to get re elected. If iraqis revolt and Saddam a troops hit Back hard while . Forces merely gaze on Bush will be blamed for inciting rebellion and then allowing Slaughter. The various schemes to foment iraqi uprisings then Send . Forces to the Rescue a As revealed in the new York times last sunday a seem too Mart to be serious. So what is going on does the Bush team think that Saddam is again emerging As a threat and has to be overthrown quickly absolutely not. Deputy Secretary of state Lawrence Eagleburger said the other Day that a so Long As we maintain sanctions. I do not think he a a danger outside his defense Secretary Dick Cheney went further and asked a How Many american lives is toppling Saddam Hussein Worth my answer to that is not very Damn in the face of those statements it is hard to imagine Bush justifying . Military intervention. Might he be prepared to do so nonetheless because he thinks Saddam a survival damages his re electability there is no evidence that Saddam is now on the Public a radar screen or that democrats Are tempted to make him an Issue. A in his present form Saddam Isnit a Security or a political threat a explained a White House official. A but if we talk him up we make him into a political Bush has usually followed this cautionary advice. And yet Saddam is like a whalebone stuck in Bush a Throat. For months he has pushed his inner corps of advisers to think about Covert plans to Pluck the Bone. Have the Covert thinkers looked at a plan to Arm the kurd and shiites to draw Saddam a faithful legions away from Baghdad and then use . Air Power to crush them yes but not seriously. Key officials throughout the administration have unanimously and consistently argued against this option. Without exception they reckon that these groups cannot be made Strong enough to pose a serious Challenge to Saddam. They also believe that even trying to bolster the kurd would allow Saddam to marshal his sunni Power base against the common foes. Might the saudis be tempted to play such a game on their own in the Hopes of forcing . Intervention it is not Clear that the saudis a apart from their possibly free Lancing ambassador in Washington Prince Bandar a Are even considering arms for kurd and shiites. In any event the saudis would never take big risks without prior . Commitments. Does this mean that the administration has abandoned any idea of Covert action to topple Saddam no. Officials continue to study the one option they always took seriously a an iraqi military rebellion. For almost a year now they have encouraged this publicly and privately. Having done so they had to Start asking themselves what they should do if it happened and iraqi units pleaded for . Help including military intervention. Having finally asked the right question they apparently have not Figurea out an answer. Meantime Bush aides occasionally talk to journalists about anti Saddam Covert action and Call this a War of nerves. But in trying to frighten the dread Saddam the aides Are inciting both the very rebellions of kurd and shiites they wish to discourage and the desired military uprisings they do not know How to handle. To continue babbling Down this Road is bad policy for the . And bad politics for George Bush. C new York times it pm
