European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - March 9, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Monday March 9, 1992 the stars and stripes a Page 13 David s. Broder super tuesday could make its Point this time commentary que Newtus a let me repeat i amt Weong hectare be Morff u this time it just might work. Super tuesday the concentrated pack of Southern primaries designed to deliver to Dixie democratic politicians a presidential nominee who wont kill the ticket in november has a Chance a belatedly a of accomplishing its goal. When key Southern legislators like Tom Murphy of Georgia and then governors like Bob Graham of Florida and Charles s. Robb of Virginia came up with the scheme in 1986, they hoped to head off another a a disaster such As the All Liberal Minnesota new York ticket of Walter Mondale and Geraldine Ferraro proved to be in 1984. By having virtually All the Southern states set their primaries in a single week Early in the nominating season the architects of super tuesday thought they would definitely put a moderate and perhaps a Southern candidate into a contending or favored position for nomination. In 1988, the scheme backfired on them. Three Southern or Border state aspirants were on the ballot a Jesse l. Jackson the Black candidate of the party left sen. Albert Gore or. Of Tennessee a Liberal backed by most of the conservative establishment and rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri a self styled populist no had exhausted most of his financial support. Running against that divided Field then gov. Michael s. Dukakis of Massachusetts won plurality victories in the two biggest Southern states Texas and Florida. He and Jackson both garnered More delegates from the Day than Gore did and Gephardt was so strapped by the expense of the multistage Effort that he was soon forced from the race. In the end the South helped make Dukakis the nominee and its politicians found that he ran so badly in this Region that he May have Cost the democrats a Senate seat in Florida and several House races in North Carolina and Texas. Part of the super tuesday problem in 1988 was the unexpected mix of candidates but part was a miscalculation about the character of the democratic primary electorates in the South. While the Region is politically conservative those who vote in democratic primaries Are not of that description. In their new Book the vital South How presidents Are elected brother political scientists Earl and Merle Black write a an exodus of Many White conservatives has significantly weakened the clout of this group within the democratic party. Although a substantial minority of participants in Southern democratic presidential primaries still think of themselves As some sort of conservative the growing importance of Blacks White moderates and White liberals Means that the democratic primaries in the South now tilt in a moderate to progressive direction. There Are far More votes to be won in Southern democratic primaries by candidates who emphasize moderate to progressive themes than by politicians who stress their  in Geogia last tuesday for example 26 percent of the democratic voters questioned in exit polls described themselves As conservative 44 percent called themselves moderate and 30 percent were Liberal. Given that Bias or tilt the democrats would face the same risk this year of seeing super tuesday bolster the prospects of a nominee who could not carry the South a were it not for the dramatic change in the makeup of their Field of candidates. There is no Jackson to pull Blacks toward the ideological extreme of the party. The Only viable no southerner in the race former Massachusetts sen. Paul e. Tsongas has an economic message that has gained him support of establishment Southern Bankers like South Carolinas . A Hoo tie Johnson who have turned away from recent democratic nominees. And a most important of All a there is Only one Southern or Border state candidate running Arkansas gov. Bill Clinton a Man who seemingly embodies the formula for Gen eral election Success for the democrats in Dixie. This is How the Brothers Black describe that formula a what the democrats need Are extraordinarily skilled candidates who generate enthusiasm among the party a two essential groups Blacks and Core White democrats but who Are attractive to the South a swing Whites the conservative White democrats and moderate independents. A such candidates would give the most emphasis to progressive issues and themes while hedging their liberalism by making some concessions to More conservative voters. Democratic politicians who Are already cd eerie ced in devising such a Broad based Appeal would ave an enormous advantage in a general election Campaign. A Short of naming Clinton who has acquired that experience Over the past decade in Arkansas the Blacks could hardly have been More specific. The exit polls in Georgia where Clinton won an impressive 57 percent of the vote showed exactly the pattern of support the authors describe. If tuesdays voting in eight other Southern and Border states confirms this pattern the creators of super tuesday will finally have made their Point. C Washington Poat writers group William Safire China s up to something in Syria a but what when syrians dictator Hafez Al Assad decided to Deal with an Intifada of Muslim fundamentalists in 1982, he did not bother with rubber bullets deportations or the killing of a neighbouring terrorist Leader. On the contrary he levelled his guns on the City of Hama and wiped out its Center. About 20,000 people were bulldozed into mass Graves. All such rules of firm dealing Are now called a Hama  Hama has been largely rebuilt and repopulated with Assad loyalists and syrian soldiers. South of the town is a facility under construction that is of interest to the worlds non proliferation agencies because it has been repeatedly visited by delegations of chinese missile technologists. These scientists shuttle Between the secret Hama Plant and another larger facility under construction at Aleppo. Parts of the Aleppo Plant Are being built underground. Its expert workers underwent training in China last year. Some suspect that the Aleppo Plant will produce surface to surface missiles. The Hama Plant these sources say is supposed to make sophisticated guidance systems for these missiles. It May also be improving the accuracy of the scud a missiles with a Range of 400 Miles sold to Syria last March by North Korea with saudi financing. The intelligence on the recent visits to the syrian Sites by the chinese groups is i think  but the purpose of the new secret plants has not yet been confirmed. If the chinese have been contributing to the indigenous syrian missile production it would mean that Congress was right and the president wrong about the Best Way to Stop China from helping increase the risk of War in the Middle East. Last nov. 17, after giving chinese leaders diplomatic co donation by paying a visit to Beijing Secretary of state James Baker announced a Clear gains in the Fields of proliferation and  he told reporters this meant that the chinese had agreed not to Export m-9 missiles to Syria. One week later if my information is Correct the chinese secretly agreed to help the syrians construct their own missiles locally. This included the Supply of chinese equipment needed to assemble the advanced weaponry. The plot China would live up to the letter of its agreement with the United states a holding Back the Pershing Type m-9s a but violate its spirit by making it possible for Syria to deliver destruction in a locally produced missile of equivalent Range. On feb. 10, 1992, the chinese scientists secretly visited the plants at Aleppo and Hama. On feb. 22, president Bush announced he would lift a ban on the Export of satellite parts and High Speed computers to China. The ban had been imposed said sen. George Mitchell a Maine after a a secret Sale of chinese missile launchers to Pakistan was  the next Day As its supervisory delegation was returning secretly from Syria Beijing announced that a China will act in accordance with the missile control technology regime. In its Export of missiles and missile  meanwhile the Congress has been concerned about sales by China of missiles to Syria and nuclear technology to Iran. To discourage any backing away from commitments made by China on the Baker visit a Bill was passed to Cut off most favored nation trading status if Beijing reneged on its promises. Last week on March 2, unaware of a or Unwor ried about a possible chinese participation in local syrian missile production Bush vetoed the Bill linking China s missile restraint to Trade status. The Senate vote to override was 59 to 39, six votes Short of the override votes needed. Might six More senators if informed of the chinese circumvention of agreements touted by Baker even As the voting took place have voted to override this sort of Story is difficult for a journalist to Check out Hamas off limits for me. But i remember How a concern for verification two years ago constrained me from writing about iraqi nuclear development for months. At first that Story was universally derided it has since been confirmed so i pose the question with appropriate caveats. What Are those c chinese scientists doing in Syria c thu now York limits