European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 5, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Thursday novembers. 1992 z election �?T92 the stars and stripes b Page 15 Trail of the Dollar. Election to election Ochaita reflect the quarterly fluctuation of the . Dollar in Exchange value against the German Mark the British Pound and the Kalian Kra from four Days before George Bush Defeated Mph Al Dukakis in 1988 to Bill Clinton s Victory on nov. 3,1992. 1400 1,382.75. Italian lira i a it 1 $1.64. Fri tool 1 British Pound 1300 1200 1100  8889 90 �?�1 92 yer �1 of Manama of Manxman w89 90 91 92 to i.i"1 .1 quote Quot taif. N f m a n f m a n f m a n f Man 8889 90 91 92 Sas Susan Harris Linton s Victory expected to lift Dollar experts see slow climb Over next 6 to 9 months by Kevin Robinson Staft writer As president elect Bill Clinton prepares to move into the White House International economists expect the value of the Dollar to Rise slowly against european currencies during the next six to nine months. But the Money experts fall Short of predicting a dramatic surge until the new administration puts its economic wheels into motion. Before the election results were in with political polls pointing to a Clinton Victory the Dollar began climbing monday from 1.50 German Marks and had settled at 1.53 Marks by wednesday. The rate for today is unchanged. However the Dollar lost value against the British Pound wednesday. A Pound will Cost $1.60 today at military Banks up from $1.58. On the open London Market one Dollar will buy 1,333 italian lire Little changed. A consistently Strong Dollar will depend on several factors said Steve lord a senior economic analyst for the general accounting office in Frankfurt Germany. First the continued strength of the Dollar is linked to the German Central Bank or Bundesbank and its willingness to lower Germany a key lending rates. Other factors hinge on the effectiveness of Clinton proposals to stimulate . Economic growth and on the Outlook of the Federal budget deficit lord said. A i think the european Money markets will react favourably to Clinton As president because he is known to be pro growth and pro investment a lord said. A a they feel he a Well connected in the finance Community and he a shown an ability to surround himself with Good people. A a if George Bush had been re elected it might have caused uncertainty in the Market. I think they Felt he did no to have a fundamental policy on economic  Robin Marshall chief economist at Chase investment Bank in London said he had expected that the markets would have reacted negatively to a Bush reelection. A a the Prospect of higher interest rates in the . Would have receded if he had been re elected a Marshall said. Over the next six months Marshall said he thinks the Dollar will Peak in the 1.60 to 1.65-Range against the Mark. Because of falling interest rates in England and it problems with the British Pound Marshall sees the Dol arts value against the Pound increasing to about $1.45 and rising to about 1,400 italian lire. Any further movement by the Dollar depends on Clinton he said. There Are two periods to watch Marshall said the period Between now and Clinton a inauguration Jan. 20 and the first 100 Days after the inauguration. During the first period economists will scrutinize Clinton a selection of advisers and other government officials Marshall said. There is speculation in the markets that Paul Volcker former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board would lend credibility to Clinton a administration As the new try Asuit Secretary he said. There also is a feeling that Fred Bergsten an economic adviser under former president Jimmy Carter May get the Job. During Chin Tony a initial 100 Days Marshall said people will see if Clinton will live up to his Campaign promises. A right now sentiment is driving the Dollar a he said. When tha wears off he added people  expect a a Quick boost in the dollars value overseas because the . Economy is still pretty  David Morrison an chief International economist for Goldman Sachs in London remembers when the Dollar traded As High As 3.40 German Marks. Those Days wont return any time soon he said but he does think the greenbacks value will be helped by the Clinton administration. A the fact that Clinton has a Clear Victory and a mandate from the american people will help the Dollar a Morrison said. A however investors wont dive into the Dollar feet first until they know who his economic appointees will  Page 1 ology that could be used by the services and the commercial markets. A improving transition programs for separating soldiers and having the government take a More Active role in returning them to the civilian Economy. At the heart of Clinton a program is the idea that the United states with its debt Ridden Economy cannot afford to be the worlds policeman in the Post cold War Era. The election debate Over National Security policy took place in a world a profoundly changed in just the Span of one presidential term Quot rep. Les Aspin a wis wrote recently in a newspaper commentary. A the question is now who Best understands this new  Aspin chairman of the House armed services committee is reportedly on the Short list of candidates to become defense Secretary under Clinton. His commentary offered a detailed explanation of the Arkansas governors military plan. Aspin along with sen. Sam Nunn d-ga., the Senate armed services commit tee chairman and rep. Dave Mccurdy d-okla., the House intelligence committee chairman have been the closest congressional advisers to Clinton on military policy and National Security. On the surface Clinton a military spending plan a $1.36 trillion through fiscal 199/ a would require a relatively modest Cut from current budget Levels and is Only 5 percent less than George Bush proposed spending. But Clinton does no to have to make wholesale changes analysts said because the Force already is sound in the ways that count. A the Success of the armed forces proved in the persian Gulf that $600 toilet seats aside some of the huge amount of defense spending in the 1980s was put to Good use a said Larry Korb a former assistant Secretary of defense. Details of the Force Structure plans offered by Clinton so far Call for cutting total Active duty strength to 1.4 million Down from about 1.8 million now and a 1987 Peak of Over 2.1 million. In Europe he would shrink the currently planned Force of 150,000 by at least a third and possibly As much As half. He would trim the number of Navy Carrier Battle groups currently afloat from 12 to nine and the number of Active army divisions from 14 to nine. The practical effect of cutting Overall Force Levels and Basing More troops in the United states is that service members can expect to spend less time overseas than they do now Over the course of a career a defense department official said. Clinton has said he will seek to increase sea lift and Airlift capabilities a including such new and controversial programs As the c-17 and v-22 transport aircraft a so the smaller Force can move quickly around the Globe. The ability to a get them where they need to be to one of the a key attributes the military needs to operate effectively in the new Era Aspin wrote. On weapons research development and procurement Clinton will be tougher on spending for the strategic defense initiative. By the same Token he also has said he will not Blunt the technological Edge the United states established during the 1980s buildup. He supports a variety of advanced systems including the sea Wolf ballistic submarine. The goal of maintaining a defense technology Edge meshes with Clinton so a conversion plan which would use the military As a seed bed for developing so called a dual use technologies that might have commercial applications. Clinton has put conversion efforts near the Center of his military policy endorsing the nearly $2 billion set aside by Congress for such efforts this year. But he also has said he does not want to squander the experience and expertise of former service members leaving the military. A we have an enormous obligation to the people who won the cold War not to leave them out in the cold a he said on Cable news network less than a week before the election. Most of Clinton a proposals in this area come from Nunn. Among them Are granting separated service members a year of paid educational leave and offering troops who leave the service after than 20 years a Chance to earn extra retirement credit by going into Public service Fields such As Law enforcement and teaching. Analysts said the Success of such policies will depend in Large part on an economic recovery. A fall of this would be much easier to do if there Wasny to a recession a Adams said