European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 12, 1994, Darmstadt, Hesse                                1a shot in the dark that sometimes hits Home the newly erected death clock in new York began keeping track of the number of guns and gun related deaths in America on Jan. 1. New York is the site of one of the most recent gun Swap programs. By Mike Mokrzycki the associated press toys for guns Swap nets hundreds of weapons in one of new York City s toughest neighbourhoods and gun related crime drops by More than 50 percent. Twenty years earlier the biggest of All big City gun buybacks takes in More than 13,000 weapons in Baltimore and gun crime increases by More than 50 percent. As interest mounts in goods and Cash for guns programs judging their effectiveness remains extremely difficult. In part that s because of the very nature of most gun buyback programs no questions asked. Details on the guns histories Are lacking. And it s impossible to determine that a particular gun surrendered to police would have been used in a future crime. Time and again proponents say that if a buyback keeps even one person from being killed or wounded by a gun it s Worth it. Sceptics say gun buybacks Are feel Good initiatives that do More to get politicians Good publicity than reduce crime they re just harmless symbolism said Gary Kleck a criminologist at Florida state University. Even some gun control advocates Aren t sure buybacks Are Worth the Money. Traditionally they have not been Cost effective said Cheryl Brolin a spokeswoman for handgun control inc. And there May be unintended consequences said Philip j. Cook a professor of Public policy at Duke University who studies the economics of Street guns. To the extent that the Street guns become More valuable. It probably Means an increased incentive to steal them or run them from other jurisdictions he said. One Man who turned in a used handgun to Norwalk conn., police for a $100 toy certificate last week had a receipt showing he had just paid $40 for it sgt. Gary Mecozzi said. There also Are concerns about whether buybacks hamper criminal investigations in effect providing a Legal Fence for guns that were illicitly obtained or used in crimes.,."-.- Raymond Kelly new York City police commissioner when the toys for guns Swap began in new York responded by saying we live in extraordinary times. We have to do  Fri statistics show that 15,377 americans were slain with guns in 1992 68 percent of the nation s homicides. Firearms were used in some 270,000 robberies and about As Many aggravated assaults. There Are an estimated 200 million plus guns in circulation today in the United states plus 1.5 million manufactured each year. The total number of guns recovered in various buyback programs around the country since 1974 probably is far less than 100,000, according to figures compiled by the associated press and handgun control inc. Buyback programs Date at least to 1968, when Philadelphia tried one. The biggest remains the 1974 Swap in Baltimore which Cost $650,000, or $50 per gun. At the time police figures showed the rate of gun killings Rose 50 percent in Baltimore during the two month program while assaults with firearms More than doubled. Police could t explain it. One study of a buyback s effect on crime rates was conducted in Seattle after a Swap that collected nearly 1,800 guns in september 1992. Arborview injury prevention and research Center gave questionnaires to the first 915 participants 55 percent voluntarily filled them out. The study found no statistically significant changes in gun crime rates during or after the program. Then again the buyback netted less than 1 percent of the estimated number of guns in Seattle the researchers estimated at least 20 percent would have to be surrendered to show an Impact. The study also found that two thirds of people who turned in guns still owned other firearms that they would t give up. New York s toys for guns Swap was started by carpet Salesman Fernando Mateo three Days before Christmas in one of the City s most violent neighbourhoods Washington Heights. The program offered $100 in gift certificates plus $75 Cash per gun. By the Middle of last week More than 1,250 guns had been surrendered. Police capt. Terry Monahan was encouraged by the kinds of weapons turned in hundreds of handguns including at least 17 of the 9mm semiautomatic favored by drug gangs plus 14 sawed off shotguns and 11 pen guns. These guns Are your typical Street guns Monahan said "  ". ". And there were other signs that the guns might have had a criminal past about one fourth had the serial number filed Down while about 50 others were found to be stolen police said. Monahan said that for the first 10 Days of the program there were 24 crimes involving guns reported in his precinct Down from 53 during the same period a year earlier. But he would t say there was a link and interviews with people turning in guns indicated that Many of them came from other parts of the City and suburbs. 18 the stars and stripes wednesday