European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 27, 1994, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Thursday january 27, 1994 commentary the stars and stripes Page 17 Clinton s toughest fight will be health care according to the polls presi Dent Clinton stepped before the nation on tuesday night with his political strength Back where it stood when he was inaugurated a year and five Days ago before Zoe Baird before tax hikes before Cristophe s haircuts before Somalia and Haiti. A big reason the polls indicate is the Economy,. Apple economic re covery can give a Jet assisted take off to a politician in Only seven months it has lifted Clinton from the worst approval rating accorded to any president so Early in his term since world War ii. But a foundering Economy can pull a politician Back to Earth with sickening Swift Ness it dragged former president Bush Down to defeat within less than two years of his sweeping Triumph in the persian Gulf. Clinton has reached a kind of first anniversary Safe Harbor. He outlined what he termed a hopeful beginning and it certainly met the two traditional criteria for proclaiming the state of the Union to be sound no americans involved in shooting wars abroad and Prosperity for most at Home. But who brought this recovery about can it be sustained and even if it is More or less will the voters be thinking mostly about their pocketbooks a year two years three years from now or will crime or health care or an unforeseen foreign crisis prove to be the principal preoccupation this is a potentially treacherous Era for any politician Clinton holds office at a time of vast transition. Look in any direction to the Economy or to Diplo Macy to the Long neglected realm of so Cial policy to Asia or Europe or latin America and everything is shifting. It takes Well honed instincts and More than a Little Luck to keep afloat in such com plex times. Outside his Safe Harbor trouble lurks for the president. There is the minefield of the Whitewater Case the investigation of which will last months if not years. At the moment the Public seems uninterested even a Little irritated that reporters and political opponents keep bringing the subject up. But a Stream of revelations if one Materi Alizes could change that. There Are the storm Clouds looming Over Russia whose leadership and Basic direction Are in doubt and Over Korea where conflict is not impossible. A. Major Ity of americans describe themselves to the pollsters As uneasy at the thought of Clinton coping with a major International crisis. What threatens Clinton most of All is the Specter of failure on health care re form. His threat on tuesday night to vet any plan that did not cover everyone any that lacks universality in the Lingo of the Day showed that Clinton under stands a Root political reality having driven health care to the top of the political Agenda in 1992, he must deliver in 1994or 1995. It also shows that he realizes How hard it will be to do so. In the last six months important figures on Capitol Hill have made his Job More difficult with two senators As influential and As differ ent As Republican Robert Dole of Kan Sas and Democrat Daniel Patrick Moynihan of new York arguing that there is no National health care crisis some of the sizzle has gone out of the president s appeals. Figures showing that health care inflation is already slowing partly in response to political pressures Over the past couple of years does not help either. Nor do rival plans that have attracted Broad congressional support. Finally the president s threat shows that contrary to his claim on tuesday night to have broken congressional Grid lock he knows he still must fight vote by vote for his major measures though his party controls both houses of Congress. But if Clinton has demonstrate anything in the last year amidst his for eign policy mishaps and his trouble with appointments it is an ability to focus on a problem just when it seems he will not and to snatch a Victory on an important Issue at the last minute by the narrowest of margins. He did it on the North Amer ican free Trade agreement with a  Republican help and he did it on his economic package with no Republican help at All. Those were substantial achievements and there were others As the president did not hesitate to remind those watching Washington there sit Robert Dole and Newt Gingrich loaded for Bear. In Black Robe sits Harry Blackmun who has toyed in Public with the idea of giving this president one of the great plums of office a . Supreme court vacancy. There s puckish Daniel Patrick Moynihan an other important person to Bill Clinton. They Are among the multiple audiences to which Clinton cast his message. A president uses this speech to woo to warn to disarm to stroke an ego and Light a fire. If it works he makes his state of the Union the talk of the nation. The occasion is a ritual attended by Congress the Cabinet the diplomatic corps the joint chiefs of staff the supreme court. It s a once a year High Cere Mony. The diplomats deferential guests listen trying to take the measure of this president still awaiting his world View. The Republican opposition listens for a tack to take should  no never or yes but deny the existence of a crisis in health care or try to offer a better Way Dole replying for the republicans disputes Clinton. Our country has health care problems but not a health care crisis he says. Clinton s government run plan he says would mean higher taxes lower Quality and less patient  can the gop denounces of the welfare state denounce anything labelled welfare Reform can it be tougher than Clinton on crime but softer on gun control on those issues Dole chooses for the moment not to spar with , who May seek to oppose Clinton in 1996, Waits for an opening. So does the aggressively partisan Gingrich and listening to him gun control nation Al service a family leave plan a new Vot ing registration Law. But health care is the big one for him from a political Point of View. Without it he might win another term but he would have to be Lucky on the Economy and he has already been extraordinarily Lucky once on that. It is now Clear that the economic recovery really started in the last Quarter of 1992, the very Quarter in which Bush was Defeated. After a couple of upward revisions the government s figures show that something of a Boom was under Way with growth at 5.7 percent but the Fig ures did not show that then and most voters did not believe it. Through much of that year Only 10 to 15 percent of the Public thought things were improving. It is not Clear that the main reason for lower interest rates is Clinton s deficit reduction program. Many economists be Lieve that interest rates tend to be set globally and Many others would give the remain on Federal Reserve More credit than Clin ton. A few would even credit poor Bush. It probably is True though it is hard to prove that coming to office As the first Democrat in 12 years Clinton had to demonstrate to the markets that he was not just another tax and spend Liberal who would let the deficit grow relatively freely if he wanted to keep rates Down. A failure even to make a Start on deficit reduction would surely have upset Wall Street. But the Basic explanation for what has happened is the natural corrective pro Cess that has taken place maybe nudged ahead a Little by Bush a Little More by. Clinton. Herbert Stein one of former president Nixon s main economic advis ers has always said less loudly when he worked in the White House that the business Cycle was More important than any president s acts. C the new York news action who is in line to become Leader of House republicans. Ted Kennedy listens As a loyalist willing to com Mit to a Liberal fight if Given a Liberal rallying cry by this  troops of the democratic majority in the House their own election Day less than a year off remember last year when they walked out on the Btu tax Plank for Clin ton Only to see him haul it in when senators walked at an Energy tax. And what of the nation s state of mind the polls says the country is feeling a surge of self Confidence with the econ omy going right again. Clinton his poll num Bers rising feels the glow but there is no evidence that the peo ple s distrust of government has subsided. The Best bet is that Washington and Clinton & co. Remain on probation. What is the state of the Union in earthquake shaken los Angeles dreading years of disruption in the every Day business of life everywhere the recession still pains Many who have been downsized out of work or those whose skills at building warplanes or training troops can find no mar Ket in a Post cold War Economy. Here in the House chamber prickly professor Moy Nihan the scholar senator listens to see if Clinton has picked up on his message. We dont have a health care crisis in this coun Mike Feinsilber try Moynihan pronounced during the january interlude. We do have a welfare crisis. And we can do  in his speech Clinton offers Moynihan this Clinton esque reply pass both. This year. We must do both at the same time he says. Last year Clinton offered his health care plan Radi Cal surgery of the social network on the basis that a Cri Sis existed. Now he tries to rekindle those fires while reassuring the senator that welfare is in his scope too. Moynihan whose 17 years Here have made him a potentate chairs the committee that will handle or not much of Clinton s Agenda. Up in the gallery sits Hillary Rodham Clinton. She is a spouse but a player too. Her stature rests with healthcare results. Troubles beyond Clinton s reach bedevil Daniel Rostenkowski chairman of the House ways and Means committee. He is under a grand jury s scrutiny but the Fate of Clinton s program May Well be in his hands. No one else seems capable of assuming his authority. Even Harry Blackmun 85, and mulling retire ment from the supreme court eyes Clinton through a special prism As the possible selector of his successor. Blackmun came to the court a conservative but is now a court Liberal. The court has changed not him he says. He is the author of the landmark 1973 abortion decision. A president s supreme court appointments shape history Long after he is gone. Jimmy Carter in four years was denied the Chance at any. Clinton has already had one Ruth Bader Ginsburg. C the associated press