European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 17, 1973, Darmstadt, Hesse                              Saturday november 17, 1973 the stars and stripes Page 9 Petroleum tips Scales of Power by Bob Hoyer Mediterranean Bureau chief what almost certainly will be one of the Pivotal economic Phenomena in history now is unfolding in the arid Oil producing lands of North Africa and the Middle East. Portents of a progressively More pervasive Energy crisis become evident Al most daily As Oil Power is dramatically put to play in the International political  seems Only yesterday that the first commercial Oil began to flow from the Des Ert Sands of these under populated under developed regions to prosperous Industrial users. Now with a suddenness that bewilder the Ordinary citizen and expert alike the Power base is shifting More quickly than anyone supposed possible Only a year ago. Petroleum the principal source of Energy in the Industrial nations is becoming More and More cherished. As a result those who control its Supply Wield great political Power. Any doubt of this conclusion has been dispelled by events of recent weeks. Cutbacks Price hike Sas Arab states imposed embargoes on Oil to the . And Holland and ordered cutback in Petroleum production and As the organization of Petroleum exporting countries open boosted Oil prices the Potency of Oil Power was brought Home As never before to the consumer  the face of these events policies which for decades led to a pattern of procrastination As Western Energy supplies dwindled now Are being reviewed and re Vised in a crisis atmosphere. Science no doubt will produce a solution for the Long term but before it does Mil Lions of people Are Likely to suffer a loss i living standards. For the consumer the first evidence of the crisis could be a cold House and an empty Gas tank. Arid if the embargo is continued the Impact is sure to broaden because Petroleum is used in hundreds of consumer  pessimistic Outlook is not unfounded. Although previous attempts to use Oil As a weapon were Only marginally effective the Success of recent actions proves that the open operating As a Cartel can apply pressure wherever it chooses. Shifting equation with the world demanding Ever increasing quantities of Oil and with the Low Energy consuming Middle East nations sitting on More than half of All known reserves the simple mathematics behind the shifting Power equation of Petroleum economics become unmistakably Clear. The More outspoken economists put the Issue bluntly. Arab Oil they say is in dispensable in the foreseeable future to the continued High Standard of living in the Industrial  statistics support this claim. Until the recent cutback Arab producing nations were supplying the West with 20 million barrels of Oil a Day nearly double the Domestic production in the United states. And Iran the Only non Arab producer inthe Mideast was pumping an additional 6 million barrels daily. A comparison of Oil production figure for 1962 and 1972 dramatically illustrates the shift in Oil Power. In 1962 the Mideast was providing Only 24per cent of world production while the . Was supplying 35 per cent. A decade later the statistics vere nearly reversed with the Middle East supplying34 per cent and the . About 20 per cent. And forecasts indicate a proportional production decline for the ., which was a major Oil exporter in 1962 and the world largest importer just a decade later. The Arab states now produce a billion tons of Oil a year but require Only 60 Mil lion tons for their own needs. Conversely the West produces 650 million tons but needs 115 billion tons. Even taking into account the potential resources of the North sea and Alaska the the Abadan refinery Complex in Southern Iran has grown up rapidly. Before the Middle East Oil embargo . Tankers could Load up at persian Gulf nations such As Bahrein. Is photo by Lloyd Burguss Energy hungry Industrial nations will be compelled to import an increasingly larger share of their growing Petroleum  needs have been increasing at an accelerated rate. From 140 million tons atthe time of the Suez crisis in 1956, Western Europe alone now uses 705 million tons of Petroleum products a year. The Middle East is the one Region that can fill these spiralling demands. By contrast Energy experts say the United states will do Well in the coming years to maintain its current production Levels. . Reserves of 5.6 billion tons add up to slightly More than 6 per cent of the world total while the Middle East s 48.5 billion tons account for More than 53 per cent of world reserves. The modest reserves of other exporting regions have led to limitations on production Venezuela the major Caribbean source of Petroleum has levelled off its output at 4 million barrels daily by. Nigeria is stud Ying proposals to increase production from 2 to 3 million by but this can Only last afew years. Indonesia soon will reach its 1.5 million by potential unless new sources of Oil Are found and Canada is holding production at about 2 million  the world s second largest producer of Petroleum at 8 million by the soviet Union is a major exporter but its own Ris ing Energy needs Are expected to consume much of future production. The larges the United states which pioneered the Petroleum Industry in the latter years of the 19th Century remains the largest pro Ducer but its share of world production has fallen off in recent years. Saudi Arabia averaging 7.7 million by from january through August and reach ing an All time High of 9 million by before cutting Back production As part of the Arabogl offensive is in the View of most experts capable of out producing the . In the near future. One plan discussed before the recent cutback called for a saudi arabian production of 20 million by by 1980. The Best estimates put . Output Nowat 11 million by and use at 18 million by. This Means 7 million by or 39 per cent of the nation s Petroleum consumption must be imported. While Many other nations import a much higher percentage of their Oil the ., As the world s largest Petroleum consumer has become by far the largest importer. In recent years an increasing amount of these imports have come from the Middle East an estimated 6 to 10 per cent at the time of the embargo. And because the Middle East has the re serves that most other regions Lack the prospects Are that America May be importing an increasing amount of its petrol Eum from the Arab nations. Some Esti mates place . Imports from the Region at 8 million to 11 million by by 1980. Current statistics show most Industrial regions Are heavily dependent on Middle East Oil. Collectively the nations of Western  continued on Page 10