European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - November 4, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 10 columns Andrew j. Glass the stars and stripes wednesday november 4, 1987 Confidence crisis undermines Stock Market heard on Wall Street the Slock Market would never have crashed if Renaul Reagan were still president. That s the traders wry manner of say ing that there s a crisis of Confidence. Investor doubt the ability or political leaders to Cope with the world s challenging economic problems. Although political Agenda do not control economic forces group psychology plays a part in setting Market momentum. A Wall Street Friend a fellow who la agree to manage your Neil egg for you provided it s Worth s7so million or More predicts that the Dow Jones Industrial average would climb 1,000 Points overnight should Reagan pleading illness or old age. Resolve to resign and turn things Over to George Bush. There s a growing per Coplion hat he can l fathom reality my wealthy Friend said. Up until now he added Rea Gan always had a Knack of dodging big trouble of culling his losses. Bui the Way he handled the Bork supreme court nomination suggests he s withdrawing from the a president seems to lose touch and a trillion dollars in equity assets evaporates. Is it really that simple or is there Marc to it than that Khar and greed Are human drives. A Little fear probably prevents a lot of traffic tickets. But. If left unbridled around markets fear and greed can in Duce Young traders to commit stupid arts. Before the crash they commonly bought and sold indexed Stock portfolios Worth billions of dollars without having the vaguest notion of what the companies they so blithely traded actually did. In the if Lih Century the dutch Wigan Breeding exotic varieties of tulips. Single rare bulbs came to be traded for thou Sands of dollars. When the Luli mania Bubble burst speculators were ruined. But hat calamitous Luli mania craze in Holland also induced inc dutch to recognize their Folly they be been fairly sober traders since. Perhaps Well All be so Lucky on a global scale. The communications revolution tics All major markets together. Foreshortening cycles of Boom and bust. A compan Tom Wicker Congress 1 Droit d to oct Fer 5. The say foe sawed we bongs. Ion information revolution hypes Alt the highs and lows. Computer driven markets compress Boih Fortune and misfortune in such a fashion that often before we have a Chance to digest a new reality and adjust to it another and quite differ ent reality confronts us. Press and television do i hair part by inflating both Success and calamity. Days Afler the meltdown with stocks Trad ing at mid-1986 Levels news magazines were already telling us How to protect our Money and speculating whether an other great depression could envelop the world. Yet the psychological that swirls around an economic panic also opens fresh possibilities. A perceived crisis May provide a valid Coniry Point for getting a promising Leader into the presidential race a recent new York times lbs news poll found thai an astonishing 64 percent of democratic primary voters would either prefer a candidate who is nol currently running or else had no opinion. Figures like that May Imri gue new York s gov. Mario Cuomo a master of political Liming who seems to show the kind of strength that the Volcks say they want in the Post Reagan Era. A real honest to goodness economic Summit nol just the annual picture postcard Type also seems Likely either next year or soon Afler a new president lakes office. The world s major Industrial Powers share a common interest in coordinating their currency values end in harnessing inc enormous sea of liquid funds that slashes electronically around the Globe. History suggests thai somewhere Down the Road perhaps in a totally unexpected fashion a new Confidence Sig Nal will Flash. Until then Well just have to hang on. Ortega on Spoffo food Arias cease fire plan during his Quick visit to Havana and Mas Caw. President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua has a Deci Sion to make that should t be hard. Either he returns to Managua this week ready to negotiate a cease fire with the so called contras As he agreed when he accepted the Arias peace plan for Central Antica or the world will hold him responsible for subverting it. His soviet hosts who profess to support the Arias plan might help persuade him if i her increased their economic Aid particularly the minimum of 363,000 barrels of Oil that Nicaragua needs for the rest of the year. In 1986, soviet Oil deliveries totalled 4.6 million barrels so far this year Only about 3 million barrels have been delivered or promised. In Washington president Reagan is doing his part no doubt duct ally. His administration is delaying its planned request for military Aid to the Contra until january when the peace plan it supposed to go fully into effect if it docs either the military Aid request won t be made at ail or Congress surely would reject it. The delay appears to have resulted partly from White House doubts that Congress would approve More military Aid while the Fate of the peace plan is pending but also from insistence by president Oscar Arias Sanchez of Cosla Rica and other latin Leaden that renewed military supplies for the contras would sink inc peace accords and renew the War in Nicara Gua. To this Point however neither Arias nor Nicara Gua s National reconciliation commission established As required by the peace plan consider Ortega s sandinista government to have done enough to satisfy thai plan s requirements. Last week. Arias publicly criticized Ortega for his unwillingness to negotiate a cease fire with the contras. Without such a cease fire he pointed out Honduras would be unable to keep its commitment under the accords to deny use of its territory to the contras. But if a cease fire were negotiated and an amnesty declared the honduran government could demand that the contras Lay Down their arms and leave Honduras. The Day after Arias spoke out. However the Sandi nista regime declared that there would never at any Lime or or in any place be any direct or indirect Politi Cal dialogue with la counter revolutionary Lead the peace accords in fact do nol Call for direct or indirect political dialogue or for talks la a would involve the co Niraj future role if any in nicaraguan political life or for a new form of government. All that s required by the Arias plan is negotiation of a cease fire a far less comprehensive undertaking. Ortega and the sandinista arc risking a lot by taking a stand against such a negotiation. If they Faillo keep the agreement they made wit i the other four Central american nations in August. Arias said he would demand International political and economic sanctions and that the entire world should isolate in thai event too Reagan surely would seek further military Aid for inc contras and Congress would be far More Likely to approve it thus the Contra War probably would continue. The Sandin Islai have maintained consistently Iasi their repressive political measures expensive military forces and poor economic record have been necessitated by the Contra War organized financed and in Large measure directed by the Reagan adm Nistra lion. This plausible claim has brought them much sup port almost everywhere enc Epi in Washington. If thai claim is True it s hard to see How the Sandi nistas could refuse a Chance to put an end id inc War by refusing to negotiate the required cease fire. If instead Ortega stands on the technicality of refusing to meet with Contra leaders he will not Only visit More War on his people and sacrifice much International Good will he will lend to confirm those who believe that War or no War. The sandinista do not intend to relax their Light political control in Nicaragua. So far the Onega government has offered to Meel with Contra military but not political leaders and has declared its own cease fire in four Small War zones. Neither Arias the reconciliation commission or the other parties to the accords regard Icse actions As sufficient compliance. Central american leaders Are supposed to announce tomorrow How they plan to comply with the accords by january. For Daniel Ortega thai Dali will bring a moment of truth
