European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - May 16, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Paga id the stars and stripes William f. Buckley reflective Kerry knows How to oust Noriega when sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts was shown on the lbs evening news recently commenting on the hypothetical Deal with Gen. Manuel Noriega the United state drops its indict ments against him he leaves Panama he was quoted merely As shouting out Teddy Kennedy style that will prove that crime Pasi what you get from the lbs evening news is More like the sound of conflict than he causes of it. In a sense thai is the Mirror of reality the democrats arc already doing what they can to discredit any Deal with Noriega As iniquitous an invitation to contempt for the Law. To be sure. Howard Baker chief of staff of the while House was quoted he said two things. The first hat no Deal had been made that i knew  the second that if the United Stales actually succeeded in getting Noriega to leave Panama in Exchange for dropping the two Florida counts the chances of trying Noriega in Florida Are about the same Ai trying Itti Amin in new Del Ithai was pretty Good plea  Over to Michael Dukakis who in pressed clerical outrage on to Jesse Jack son who acted As though to drop a charge against someone was on the order of repealing the Constitution. He said that either Noriega was guilty or he a not guilty. Down Jesse. Every Day in your Chi Cago and our new York the prosecution drops or Lowers charges against Street versions of Noriega. The projected Deal with Noriega has nothing to do with whether he is guilty or not. It has to do with cat politic and no one who runs for president or far District attorney should be entirely ignorant of it. In Point of fact these pols practice realpolitik every Day. As Ever we have god to thank for Robert Macneil and James Lehrer who Are like an encyclopedia compared to the lbs tabloid they give the viewer some idea of what is going on. And la there was Kerry in from the Balcony where he was shouting to the democratic mob. Back to the seminar. His principal co guest was sen Richard Lugar  Are respectively the incumbent Martin Gottlieb chairman of the foreign relations sub committee that deals with narcotics and the senator who was the chairman of the foreign relations committee. Lugar led off by saying that the raw Exchange indictment dropped Noriega out of Panama just Plain did t solve enough problems Lugar wants to know what docs the opposition in pan Ama feel about the arrangement what future guarantees do we have against no Riega s attempting to return to Panama or perhaps controlling it from exile and what about Honduras what does Hon Duras think about it and what about other latin american countries what we ought to do with All this said Lugar is build panamanian democracy talk about building the Panama canal that Only Cost 20 000 lives then Democrat Kerry came in. And gel this in far., said Kerry sounding like the Dean of International studies at Georgetown we have not used against Panama a full panoply of  the Flash in the pan economic embargo and freezing of funds was something that As we saw Noriega easily with stood. We should have done More enough to unnerve Noriega and cause his ouster such As such As threatening him with the use of Force. If necessary we should be pre pared said Kerry to use american Mili tary Force against Noriega. And  agreed. Two other guests one a member of the opposition m Panama the other an academician were consulted How would the panamanians feel about it the opposition Leader said they would Greet . Marines with Flowers. It s True that Fidel Castro and Augusta pinot Hal have both warned against the use of american Force but they Are both tyrants Are hey not no wonder they deplore the us of the Mili tary. The academician said not so fast Noriega has been careful not to moles the Panama canal or to mutilate . Citizens How would we fare elsewhere in the world using marines to protect panamanian base when negotiating for bases in e.g., Spain the Philippines and Greece but it was an emancipating moment the same senator transformed from the Bojur alive Mode in lbs to the reflective Mode on pcs saying we should threaten . Force and be prepared Touse it. Kerry for president Uttz Wal it i professor s system gives election nod to Bush some academic types bemoan the absence of High minded Issue Content in elections. But professor Allan Lichtman of american University in Washington has a theory that suggests that if his democrats arc to win in 1988. They had belter be ready to get Down. Lieh Mon has a painstakingly developed system for predicting the outcomes of presidential elections. It has not yet been proven effective Bui it merits consideration for two reasons his similar method for predicting off year senatorial elections is remarkably effective. In i9s6 he was right on 30 of 34 races and he understood immediately after the 1984 election that the democrats would be competitive in 1988, which is saying something. After All. 1984 was the republicans sixth solid Vic tory in nine elections the democrats had had Only one 1964. It was beginning to look like a Republican Era. But Lichtman insisted that there is no such thing As a Republican or democratic Era and that landslides notwithstanding Bolh panics Are perpetually close to winning the White House. Now the democrats Are competitive again even though nothing awful has happened in the last fou years. There has been no depression no War no watergate no recession no civil unrest. This is your Basic pc acc and Prosperity election. Why should the out party be making b major comeback especially without particularly changing its political spots the democrats have thumbed their collective nose at the notion that icy needed to move o the right they have chosen of All things a Massachusetts Liberal. Moreover they Are not nominating a charismatic figure nor a party heavyweight nor even somebody the general Public had heard of a year ago. Their comeback suggests that the perpetual equilibrium that Lichtman sees is real. However Lichtman now cautions that Short Ter factors arc favouring the republicans. He picks Bush. Having examined All presidential elections Back to the civil War Era he and a colleague have found 13 key to an election. If 9 of them favor the incumbent party it wins 7, it loses s is a toss up. He says this system is never wrong when applied retrospectively Loany election in Over a Century. He says Bush is now favored by 10 keys. However some of them Are a Little wobbly. If the pending treaty on mid Range nuclear weapons is considered a major foreign policy accomplishment As Lichtman considers i that s one key for Bush. Another results from licht Man s judgment that the Reagan administration has not experienced a major scandal. Another results from Lichtman s judgment that the iranian arms sales was not a major foreign policy failure because in was just an initiative that did t work rather than a deterioration in the nation s standing in the world. If All three of these were 10 change the democrats would have enough keys. If inc Economy were to turn downward that would be another. Even a change of two keys would mean a toss up. This is the first difficult presidential election licht Man has applied his system to prospectively. The pro Cess has taught him something. His theory used to hold that the Factor that determines election outcomes in the performance of the incumbent party. He now believe that question like was there a major foreign policy setback or Success or a scandal or Are not As easy to answer in the present 3 they Are when looking Back Onich past and that icy Are in pan matters of perception and that the out party can help determine How things arc  now believes thai the democrats can still win inc scandal key if they can convince people that the Reagan administration turned a Blind Eye on in drug dealings of the panamanian government. Or if the democrats can bundle the Iran Contra affair with the Mccase affairs the Caver affair the Nofzger affair and the other dubious affairs of administration people. He says the democrats must convince uie pub he therein a general corruption mess in Washington As the republicans did in 1952. Michael Dukakis likes la Lalk a lot about being a positive person and having a positive message. If Lichtman is right for Dukakis to get too Hung up on such rhetoric would be positively stupid. The opinion expressed to the Mirom and or Toons on ibb Page represent these of the authors and re i Amway to be considered representing the Tim of the stir and Stripe or the United stain get in Cal