European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - June 16, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes columns Tom Wicker limited Long term ski program More sensible in task you Haven t noticed. President Reagan s notorious strategic defense initiative has fallen into Money political and technological rouble not just m the democratic Congress or with traditional opponents hut even among devout Siar wars advocates the program is by no Means dead. Bui declining Confidence in a space based missile defense and Slack ening pressures for its Carl deployment mean that a new president could More easily limit the program to sensible Long term research. The soviet Union h n made . Development and deployment of such a defense a major obstacle to a strategic weapons reduction treaty. The substantial de lays s l almost certainly faces therefore May enhance prospects for Start As the prospective Sara logic arms treat is known. The most serious How to ski was dealt he inc de sense science Board an Independent scientific panel convened by the Secretary of defense. Frank c. Carlic i. Though so contractors Are heavily represented on the Hoard it recommended scaling Hack spending and substantially lowing deployment. The first of six suggested stages a null employ Avail Able technology in deploying 1 10 ground based defensive missiles to protect against accidental launches and to complicate any real attack on . Missile signs Only the fifth stage coming some Lime after the turn of the Century would put weapons into space and Only Llic last Many decades in the future would employ lizier beams and other exotic technology. The last Arnold  three stages would require renegotiation of the Anli Leal Islic missile treaty with the Soviel Union. The most important consequence of this re Pun May be to Force the Pentagon itself to lower its sights and do emphasis Quick deployment of ski. That would Lessen the urgency with which Congress and a new president could be pressed to pursue Star wars the huge Tost of which is already a limiting Factor. The science Board caustically Crivici cd the Reagan administration s efforts to reinterpret the abm treaty to permit advanced Star wars testing. The Ycint crore Talion has backfired inc rep it declared causing Corv Gress to Cul Back funding and impose testing restrictions 10 keep the ski within the previously accepted limits of the abm treaty. Carlucci is believed 10 he in general sympathy with the science Board s recommends ions rot the least because of congressional budget . Techno logical difficulties and arms control pressures. Little Progress for a Sample. Was made at the Moscow sum Mit meeting on resolving in  Dill Rencs on Ilic Arm treaty and on toting strategic defences partly fur that reason the Start treaty also made Little Progress. Afier two years of research substantially aided by inc Pentagon itself the congressional office of technology assessment also has reported that . Deploy ment of a space based missile defense would quickly provoke Soviel  to destroy american weapons and sensors in space. The russians would make extensive efforts moreover to overwhelm the . Defense with offensive weapons forcing a new arms race in space. This study also concluded As has virtually every non Pentagon assessment that Reagan s Origi Nal vision of a space based shield Over . Attim seems  even the computer software for such a defense is not available and if developed might no work under actual attack conditions. Still another report by staff researchers for Sens. Dennett Johnston of Louisiana Dak bumpers of a Kansas and William Proxmire of Wisconsin All demo cratic opponents of Quick ski deployment argued that a Scarcity of heavy rockets would prevent a missile defense from being launched into space before 1998 at the earliest. Pentagon estimates arc that two to five million pounds of weapons satellites sensors and platforms would have to be launched in the first phase of ski deployment. The staff researchers estimated that the entire . Rocket Supply would lift Only about a Mil lion pounds but a new advanced launch system even ski officials say is now estimated to Cost about ii7 billion. The Senate staff study concludes moreover that first phase ski defences would Stop Only about one sixth of incoming warheads from reaching their tar gets. That hardly seems Worth inc sit i Dillion he researchers suggested that inc first phase might Cost. No Yort a Nivert sir party leaders Don t want suspenseful conventions so be a knt going to  a brokered convention Afler All. Thai tray Lake All of the. Suspense and some of the fun out of it. But guess Shat. That s the Way the system is supposed to work. We purveyors of news tend to report political campaigns As sports events accounting for any Edge of disappointment that May have been noted when gov. Michael Dukakis locked up inc demo cratic Percsi denial nomination last week. It appeared after Csc Jackson won the Michigan primary that for the first Lime since 1952 one of the National conventions might have to cast More than one ballot to select a nominee. That Prospect had reporters Tingle with visions of Wheeling and dealing behind the scenes and High drama and bitter strife on the convention floor. It was nol to be and if the people who designed the systems by which Bolh major parties select their presidential nominees have their Way it won l be in the future either. The unstated purpose and the practical effect of the Delegate selection rules is to Settle inc question of who will be the presidential nominee be fore the National convention begins. There Are two reasons Why the politicians Don t want old fashioned dogfight National conventions with multiple bal lots. The firs reason can be described As the 1924 Madison Square Garden syn drome that was the year in took the democrats 102 ballots to nominate John w. Davis in new York. If inc democrats had any Chance to beat Calvin Coolidge in died in the sweat and tears of that 17 Day steam Bath at the old Garden. The republicans also had been through a recent Tough convention the id ballot affair in Chicago in 1920. In was there that party Bosses chose Warren Harding in the Blackstone hotel s famous smoke filled room and inc gop ended up with an administration tainted by the Woisil corruption since . Grant occupied the while House. After 1920 and 1924, neither parly wanted to take chances with wide open conventions. From then until inc 1950s, political Bosses and organizations effectively managed Delegate selection so that no More than two or three ballots were needed to choose a candidate. Since the 1960s, the primary and Cau Cus system has supplanted Boss Rule but the rules of both parties arc set up to encourage a a coding out process thai will deliver a Winner before the conventions. The other major reason for one ballot conventions is television. With the Cam Era peering into the very bridgework of every Delegate and reporters roaming the floor eager to find a fight the Politi Cal professionals have come to abhor the Prospect of convention disunity. The pros have come to see National conventions As marvelous opportunities to get hours and Days of free television time to make their candidates and their issues look Good to li1 voters and get a Good Start on the fall Campaign. This has developed to the Point that Many conventions Are run according to scripts Complete with to directors working under the podium and rigid Lime limits on spontaneous demonstrations for the candidates. The parties like conventions to be run this Way and it is possible that the old fashioned competitive political Conven Tion has gone the Way of Amateur College football and the 5-cent Cigar.  it i Liurni a Oil the opinion expressed in the col Pitini and cartoons on this Page represent those of the authors and Are in no Way to be considered Ai representing the flows of the sum and stripes or the United slates government