European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - July 11, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Theory off the greenhouse effect factories and other sources of pollution Emit gases such As Carbon dioxide nitrous oxides Chlorou Moro carbons and methane. Accumulating in the atmosphere the gases encircle the planet. The heats on calculating the consequences of a warmer Earth pollution layer works As an insulating Barrier retaining heat from the Earth. As though surrounded by the panels of a greenhouse the planet becomes hotter year by year. New York times by Gayle Golden Dallas morning news Ong before this year s scorching heat in the Central United states scientists were reaching a disturbing consensus the world s atmosphere is getting warmer and the parched Farmland and sweltering cities of this year s drought May be the first glimpse of what life will be like during that average global temperature Rise a trend that could be related to heat trapping pollutants in the atmosphere. We re seeing a period of rapid increase like never before said Ralph Cicerone director of atmospheric chemistry at the National Center for atmospheric research in Boulder Colo most of the Best models predict it will be hotter during the summer in the Middle of the . Continental area that s what s happening this  a Nasa scientist told a congressional committee he was 99 percent certain that the warming trend was related to the so called greenhouse effect a phenomenon predicted to occur when Carbon dioxide from burned Fossil fuels and other airborne pollutants becomes prodigious enough to trap heat in the Earth s atmosphere. Once dismissed As the stuff of science fiction the greenhouse effect is now being taken so seriously that some economists Are predicting that it will eventually Cost tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars a year to Cut Down on the gaseous emissions that Are thought to be raising the surface temperature of the planet and to Deal with the consequences. Even if the trend can be slowed Many scientists consider serious environmental and economic damage a foregone conclusion. Yet climatologists agree that no one can say a greenhouse effect has specifically caused this year s drought in the United states. What we can say is that these events should be More daily Magazine and More prevalent in the coming years Cicerone said. The immediate cause of this year s drought is a split in the Jet Stream which began in Early Spring. Instead of settling in its usual summer position of cutting across the United states from California to new Jersey the upper air flow split into two branches. One Branch is moving South of the .-Mexico Border and another is moving through the Northwestern states into Canada. Between those two branches a High pressure area of stalled air developed and grew keeping Clouds from forming Over the Central United states and shunting Pacific storms to the North and South. Such a split usually develops Only for a few Days during summer before dissipating. But this one is stubborn. Although Al Nino events have been associated with drought in the Pacific Northwest a number of the Central states severe dry spells including the dust bowl droughts of the 1930s occurred when there was Noel Nino activity Wallace said. Some scientists think that if Central . Droughts Are related to anything it May be activity 93 million Miles from the farms now parched by the drought. J. Murray Mitchell retired climatologist from the National oceanographic and atmospheric administration who now does research from his Home in Mclean va., has studied rings on Trees from drought stricken areas across North America and compared them with the 11-year cycles of Sunspot activity. His work indicates that severe North american droughts Are twice As Likely to occur at the end of every second Sunspot Cycle or 22 years. In defending his theory which has caused some controversy among scientists Mitchell argues that the Sun s magnetic Field May have something to do with droughts at those times. It s just a tendency Mitchell said. It s not a Clear Cut thing like the Sun rising in the East. But there is a heightened risk of drought like conditions somewhere in the United states during these  if Mitchell s theory is True Farmers in the Central . Can breathe More easily. Although we Are just entering a new Sunspot Cycle it s the wrong Cycle to heighten the risk of drought Mitchell said. If it were left to the Sun and nothing else the Sun would Tell you you be probably got a hit and run drought he said. If we were 10 years Down the Road we May have a real worry on our  but others believe that regardless of the specific causes of this year s drought it remains an ominous sign of future climatic change. In the april Issue of geophysical research letters scientists from Nasa s Goddard Institute for space studies in new York reported that the 1980s have included the four warmest years Ever recorded 1980, 1981,1983 and 1987. And 1988 is expected to be the warmest year on record. The scientists James Hansen and Sergej Lebedeff also reported that from 1960 to today the Earth s air surface temperatures increased significantly More rapidly than from 1880 to 1940, which also was a time of rapid warming. Although the scientists said annual temperatures should ideally fall because Al Nino has cooled the greenhouse effect May Well keep temperatures higher than expected with average temperature increases Between 3 degrees and 9 degrees Over the next 70 years. That Range would cause Many More extremely hot Days in areas than now experience few Hansen and other atmospheric scientists have urged Congress to take action to reduce the amount of Carbon dioxide methane and fluorocarbons released into the atmosphere saying they were 99 percent certain the measured warming trend was the first sign of a greenhouse effect. But David Rodenhuis director of the National weather service s climate analysis Center in Camp Springs md., remained cautious about linking this year s dry hot weather with a greenhouse effect. It s impossible to know whether the Earth is really warming from these gases Rodenhuis said. The fact that we be had several warm years plus these droughts and major disturbances May be warnings but we cannot yet ascribe this drought to global warming monday july 11, 1988 the stars and stripes Page 13