European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - September 15, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes James Reston Campaign needs some attention from voters everybody is being Analysed and criticized in this presidential election except the voters and thenon voters who arc performing in their usual mysterious ways. Vice president Bush is trying to persuade them by trickery and guv. Dukakis by evasion and they do so Tor the simple reason thai they think it works. When Bush tells he people hat sen. Dan Quayle is a Man or presidential stature and tells them to remember Pearl Harbor and then forgets the Date himself they Don t seem to mind. The lower he sinks on the Road to the while House the higher he flies in the popularity polls. Most people suspect Quayle is a Turkey but after All he d just be vice president and vice presidents have had to take Over the while House Only five times in this Century. What if Bush implies that Dukakis is unpatriotic and eels his ideas from Jane Fonda he s said in merely to do trying to prove he s not a  meanwhile Dukakis promises them Good jobs at Good pay clean air and water free baby Sillers and subsidized education better defense at lower Cost and says that s what it s All  paying for these things of course is really what it s All about but he does t explain that. The people like anything that sounds like goad news As Ronald Reagan proved so Bush feeds them baloney and Calls in Good  they know thai the vice president can t possibly foresee what will happen to the Economy or the deficits in the next four or eight years but they like his promises that hell never raise taxes. We re going to grow out of the largest budget and Trade deficits in history says the vice president but this merely proves Woodrow Wilson s conclusion that there Are two kinds of people in Washington those who grow and those who  the people Don l applaud All this nonsense but they lol Erale it and even copy in. After All private debt like Public debt is at an All time High. Our National savings amount to Only two cents on inc Dollar the lowest in the Industrial world so you can l blame everything on the candidates. They represent the people who won t save who won t face he facts and almost a majority of whom won t vote. Campaign expenditures Are now at an Alt time High but voting was Down in the primaries and the congressional research service estimates thai it will drop in Tom Wicker the new a Kkt Wjk Dow november to the lowest level in 40 years. Maybe it s not so surprising thai the american peo ple pay so Little attention in 1988 to he deficits and political tricks for they have been living in a world of pretence and borrowed Prosperity for almost a decade. They have been told that government is the problem and not the answer to their problems that ideology is More important than competence and thai personal Success is More important than anything else. Fortunately something can be done. The exhibition season is Over and the decisive phase of the Campaign is jus beginning. It should be possible to gel beyond the questions of whether Bush is a wimp and Dukakis is a shrimp and gel a better View of How inc country is to he governed. Neither of these candidates is Likely to gov Ern like Reagan by personality which is one hopeful sign. Another is that unlike Carter and Rea Gan in the last three elections neither candidate is running against Washington but actually saying some agreeable things about the civil servants on whom they la have to rely when the shouting is Over. There Are at least two main questions. The first is who Wili pick the most competent people to share the new president s burdens. This was Why Bush s Choice of Quayle was such a disturbing disappointment and Why in is so distressing to hear Reagan still praising Educ use As a great attorney general and col. North As a  the other question is How to govern the country effectively with the while House under the control Ozone party and Congress in he hands of the other. As in both Nicaragua and Iran the president blames the democratic Congress for the troubles and vice Vena. Only when one party is fully responsible ate we Likely to establish an effective foreign policy and know who to blame if we Don t. Left to their own preoccupation with tactics and television pictures the candidates Are unlikely to Clar Ify these issues. But if the people gel a hearing Aid in the next six weeks and pay a Little More attention it s just a Hope Ful idea Here that they might. Over Rej Ance on technology could Lead to chaos two months ago the Vincennes a guided missile Cruiser equipped with the technologically advanced Aegis sys tem of radar detection and electronic fire control mistakenly shot Down an iranian passenger Jet in the persian Gulf causing the loss of290 lives. Not Long ago John Markoff of the new York times reported computer designers at try the weapons Roan fac Lurer were surprised to find hat a Large computer network they had Strung together in Europe was exhibiting strange unpredictable  nothing could be found wrong with this Complex linkage of hundreds of computers and the try engineers now suspect Bat they were confronted with the mathematical concept called chaos a natural phenomenon that leads 10 turbulence in rapidly moving water or in the atmosphere. These two events were unrelated except that they offer a common warning against Loo Complete Reliance on computers and electronic systems As subs Lutcs for or multipliers of Mankind s innate abilities. That is what is most worrisome about president Reagan s strategic defense initiative. If Ever developed beyond the experimental stage a dubious proposition Star wars will be heavily dependent on a vast network of sensors computers and electronic weapons guidance systems girdling the Globe and Only nominally under human control. Given the likelihood of a breakdown at any of thousands of Points in a system so Complex thai no one has been Able As yet even to design the necessary soft Ware in takes a leap of Faith to believe that the sd1 would increase National Security against attack. More Likely aping the computers Al your local Bank or at a airline ticket counter the system would be Down when most needed. Worse if the projected ski net works Ever were deployed in what would be a far larger and More intricate system than the one that went haywire in Europe what is to prevent thai system from falling into chaos a phenomenon not even completely understood much less correctable who can say what wild and unpredictable variations in Markoff phrase might occur in ski s functions or what uncontrollable consequences might result in the Case of the Vincennes the Navy blames Crew error arising from the psychological stress of being in combat for the first Lime and exonerates the expensive Aegis system from any blame. Since Aegis has failed before and the Navy Hasan enormous financial stake in its Suc Cess this judgment May be questionable. Dut suppose the Navy is right and the Vincennes Crew understandably excited and fearful in its first combat lest deplorable misinterpreted Aegis readings William f. Schreiber a professor of electrical engineering at Mit Points out hat a nuclear War or a nuclear weapon Accident that looks like nuclear War will be a first time for everyone. The Vincennes episode was a birth Day party by companion writes Schrei Ber who designs computer based graphic arts systems. After such a debacle in a very simple situation with a weapon sys tem on which no expense has been spared and for which the Crew trained exhaustively what kind of performance should we expect from the Crews of nuclear weapons installations when the sys tem seems to say that there Are missiles coming our Way or it should be added from soviet nuclear weapons Crews when their complicated technology which probably is Ess reliable than ours tells them mis Siles Are headed their Way Quick and accurate actions in response to what the instruments seem to be saying Schreiber notes depend at least As much on How the operator receives information and makes his Deci Sions known to the system As on the Basic capability of the system itself not Only May these High technology systems fail or degenerate inexplicably into chaos and be More prone to do either As they grow Ever More Complex even when they function properly the responses of the fallible human being who May have to interpret their Rae sages can be disastrous and humans May be progressively less fit for a Job � demanding. Thus As we move inexorably into the world of High technology and control by computer the undeniable benefits will not come cheaply. For Mankind s enhanced capacities the Price May be thai we diminish a Tater than increase what Little dominance behave of our own destiny. No tort a i atm Swu the opinions expressed in the columns and cartoons on this Page _ rep resent those of the author Ana Are in Otway to be considered As representing the views of the Stan and stripes or the United slates government