European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - January 15, 1989, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 18 the stars and stripes Dollar reaches 90-Day highs then hits skids the Dollar surged to three month highs on International currency markets last week but the week ended on a note of caution As intervention by the West German Bundesbank and . Fed eral Reserve forced the Buck to Retreat a bit. The Central Banks were most Active wednes Day and Friday driving the Dollar lower on both Days after it had topped the 1.84 Mark level. The trend for the present remains up although it s slowed Down somewhat by the continuous threat of Central Bank interventions said Yvan will foreign Exchange manager for merchants National Bank in Frankfurt West Germany. In this ease intervention translates into the Central Bank ers Selling dollars for Marks which tends to depress the value of the . Currency. The High for the Dollar versus the Mark on Friday was 1.8430 in Europe but a combination of Central Bank Dollar Selling and foreign Curren by Randy Mcclain by traders turning against the Buck because of disappointing . Retail sales figures for de Cember sent the Greenback lower by about one pfennig. Late Friday afternoon the Dollar stood at 1.8320 Marks. But keep in mind that was still an improvement Over thursday s close of1.8255 Marks for a Dollar. The British Pound followed the Mark s trend. It was trading late Friday at $1.7780, a bit stronger than its european Low during the Day of$1.7670. . Retail sales for december were up Over november s figures by 0.2 percent but some foreign Exchange traders had expected As much As a 1 percent increase. The lower than expected number was enough to convince some that the . Economy has cooled off enough so that a dangerous Cycle of inflation is no longer Likely. Sandra Garraway economist with Barclays Bank in London said the Dollar had already started to fall off its highs for the Day upon the release of the retail sales data when Germany s Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve arrived on the scene to take another Potshot at the Buck. The Bundesbank sold $52 million at the 1 . Fixing on the Frankfurt Exchange and later began Selling More dollars on the open Market through brokers. Some published reports in recent Days have suggested the Buck could Rise As High As 2 Marks to the Dollar in the next several weeks. But Gar Raway said there seems to be almost As Many bears As bulls trading these Days and it s to Early to predict a Clear trend. The Prospect of further Central Bank Dollar bashing remains the biggest question Mark hang ing Over the Buck s head in the week ahead. The Bundesbank and fed seem to become very Active whenever the Dollar goes above 1.83 Marks Garraway said. . Military men and women though can take heart that the past week brought them an increase of four full pfennig in the value of their dollars. A week ago the Buck was fetching 1.78 Marks at Mili tary banking facilities in West Germany. This holi Day weekend the Dollar will bring 1.82 Marks. That rate will hold at least through monday. The next key economic statistic which could help determine the direction of the Dollar will be the release on wednesday of . Trade data for november. The american Trade deficit was $ 10.35 billion in october a slight improvement Over september s$10.67 billion deficit. Garraway said she expects a slight deterioration in the figures this time around. The stars and stripes 38 commissaries to offer fresh pizzas within year by Deedee Arrington Doke Kaiserslautern Bureau buoyed by enthusiastic customer response to a test that began last fall at nine commissaries in Europe army commissary officials will permanently install fresh pizza operations at a total of 25 stores by Decem Ber. Not to be outdone by the army the air Force commissary system also will introduce the fresh pizza concept in 13 stores across Europe within six months. We re Happy said Denise Gomes an army commissary spokeswoman. Sales started out with a bang better than we expected. Although sales did drop in november and december we expected that. And signs right now Are that they re going to pick up  this is not a test said capt. Larry Davis a spokesman for the air Force commissary system. We re going to do it for the Long haul. There seems Tobe a significant customer  fresh pizzas Are made to order for at Home baking at the pizza stands which Are operated by trans euro Pean marketing a broker for custom foods. The Piz Zas Are made with several different types of crusts and Are priced according to the number of toppings an size. Since pizza operations started in nine army commissaries in West Germany last september the pies have been Selling like hotcakes. Between sept. 12 and Jan. 9, the army outlets sold 67,949 pizzas Worth $278,590. That s an average of 78 per Day at each location and an average Price of $4.10 per pizza which Means people Are buying them full loaded Gomes said. Berlin sold the most pizzas during the test an aver age of 116 per Day Schweinfurt racked up the lowest level of sales with an average of 44 pizzas per Day. The Only snags evident during the test were ingredient shortages at several stores which forced pizza operations to shut Down temporarily for restocking. Gomes said the problem appears to have been resolved by stocking enough ingredients in country so we can Send them from one location to  army stores involved in the test were Augsburg Berlin Bremerhaven Darmstadt Furth Hanau Hei Delberg Schweinfurt and Wiesbaden. West Germany stores to get pizza cart operations by the end of the year include Aschaffenbur bad Kreuz Nach Bamberg Baum older Derheim Frankfurt Giessen Karlsruhe Kitzinger Munich Vilseck Wiir Burg Wei Brincken and Stuttgart s Robinson bar Racks. Schinnen Netherlands also will add the pizza service. A new pizza operation also recently opened atthe Patch Barracks store in Stuttgart. Air Force commissaries scheduled for pizza cart operations Are Pitburg Ramstein Rhein main Spang Dahlem and Kaiserslautern s Vogel Weh store in West Germany Alconbury Ben Waters Greenham com Mon Lakenheath and upper Heyford in England and in the Mediterranean Region hell Nikon Greece in Ciurlik Turkey and san Vito Italy. Nightmare nineties seem Cerfa a economists agree by Don Oldenburg the Washington Post this is upsetting. Very upsetting. A score or so of prognosticate and recently published books Are Alert ing the country to an inevitable economic collapse coming this year or next year or at least sometime inthe much too near future. And they re not talking about a Little Belt tightening either. When these doomsayers talk hard times they mean More than a slump worse than a decline slower than a slowdown. Many of them predict a Fate worse than debt something approximating a nationwide economic scuttling. They Don t hesitate to articulate the dreaded d word As in depression. Even the normally upbeat Bull Market guru Robert Prechter has been quoted recently As calling the next decade the Nightmare  now there Are plenty of economic experts who Call this alarmist Poppycock. A few even expect the new year and the next decade will let the Good times Roll. Still what s hard to ignore about the latest warnings is that they be gotten so personal. Most americans have an exemplary Knack for letting High finances Fly Over their Heads. Even telltale signs such As the Stock Market s Black monday in 1987 seem too Distant from the nearest automatic Teller machine to matter for Many of us. Worrying about the Dollar is for stodgy economists anyway. But these gloomiest of messages strafe closer to Home like losing your Home when you default on the mortgage. That comes soon after you be been Laid off and just before you file for personal bankruptcy. This is not Good news. Nor does it sell books to masses of american Consumers who still believe in the credit fairy which in part explains Why some of these same experts Are delivering the bad news pack aged with lots of hopeful advice on How Best to prepare for the worst of times. Take Ravi Batra. Considered by some to be a super Star economist he is the professor of economics at dal Las Southern methodist University who emerged in the National spotlight three years ago As author of the Best seller the great depression of 1990." Batra found that convincing people of the likelihood of this crash scenario was t the problem what they really wanted to know Washow to land on their feet after the fall. Right now is the time to prepare yourself for any eventuality Batra writes in the preface of his recent sequel surviving the great depression of 1990 protect your assets and investments and come out on top Simon and schuster $18.95. You should Hope for the Best but prepare for the  the basis of Batra s pessimism is a cyclical theory of economic crisis that asserts what s past is prologue. Since the late 18th Century Batra calculates serious depressions have occurred every third or sixth decade. Because the United states escaped economic disaster during a rather mild 1962 setback the Early 1990s should return us to our regularly scheduled depression. Batra refused a Chance last week to soften that prediction. Instead he emphasized there is virtually no Chance the country will escape a depression in the next decade and Only a Small Chance it won t come before the end of 1990. It has to happen he states flatly. What s in store this year Batra says the Stock Market will crash and Burn in 1989 or in the first Quarter of 1990. Bank failures interest rates and inflation will All Rise sharply practically the identical dominoes that fell in 1929 to kick off that big bust. And Batra believes this one should be a doozy we Are now in for a big one and you cannot afford to be  another expert who is battering Down the hatches is Paul Erdman a respected economist who has made a career of penning books both fiction and non fiction on economic collapse including the last Days of America and the panic of 89". Unfortunately his latest what s next How to prepare yourself for the crash of 89 and profit in the 1990 a Doubleday 14.95is labelled non fiction. In it Erdman argues that american finances right now Are living the last Days of a Grace period. He anticipates everything to go haywire by the Middle of this year when a Market crash will touch off a worldwide recession that will hit Rock Bottom by september. But Erdman differs from his More melancholy col leagues. He speculates America s recovery will be Quick though not painless and that the other Side of the recession looks pretty Rosy with a stable Economy Low interest rates Low inflation and a reinvigorated Dow Jones reaching 3,000 a couple years into the 90s. In my opinion the next recession is not going to be a Long dragged out affair Erdman writes predicting 10 months of recession. He believes that the continued de valuation of the . Dollar plus recession will equal a return to balanced foreign Trade. He also counts on other Happy returns a buy-.a. Resurgence skyrocketing  productivity a renewed spirit of hard work and Quick reinvestment of foreign capital in the United states it is going to resemble a v not a a " he reassures it will definitely not turn into a depression "