European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - October 06, 1989, Darmstadt, Hesse Friday. October 1989 the stars and stripes Page 3 caution urged in reacting to soviets we ought of keep our powder dry London up1 As tensions Between East and West begin to diminish positive political changes in the soviet bloc carry new uncertainties for the West according to the annual report on the world military balance published thursday by the London based International Institute for strategic studies. Explaining the highlights of the military balance a 252-Page report covering the strategic situation world wide John Cross Deputy director of the Institute said the most important advances toward lessening East West tension had come from Progress in unilateral moves to reduce the massive conventional forces of the soviet Union and its Warsaw pact allies. But he said Western military strategists had to be cautious about How they reacted to the positive Politi Cal changes in the soviet Union and its East european satellites. There is still a Clear potential for instability in the Eastern bloc and the fact is that should that instability match iliac in any serious fashion the implications for Western Security interests arc remarkably unclear he told United press International. The unspoken implication is that we ought to keep our powder dry so to diplomats said the thinking behind the statistic packed report of the Institute a Center for research on the problems of International Security defense and arms control with experts from about 70 nations explained in part the cautious approach of the Bush administration and its Western allies on How far they should go toward aiding Poland Hungary and other East european nations in the throes of political and economic change. It said the most positive development had come from the announcement of unilateral Force reductions last december by soviet president Mikhail Gorba Chev. The Vienna. Austria negotiations aimed at reducing the level of conventional forces in Europe have set off to a remarkably promising the report said. But it added there has been less Progress at the strategic arms reduction talks which were recessed there is still a Clear potential for instability in the Eastern John Cross for seven months from mid november 1988 to allow the new . Administration to carry out a comprehensive the two sides it noted were still Debat ing the same issues they had been discussing a year ago. Despite the significant development in East West relations the data in this year s report records few if any dramatic changes Cross said. He said the num Ber of superpower launchers and warheads had not significantly changed. According to the Institute . Strategic nuclear launchers had decreased by 34 to 1,968, while the so Viet number had increased by 85 to 2,588, under the counting rules of the strategic arms limitation treaty it said this meant . Nuclear warheads had de creased by 107 to 14,530, while soviet warheads had increased by 709 to 12.403. The miss continues to judge that strategic nuclear forces remain in rough parity the report said. Nei ther has the capability to launch a comprehensive Dis arming first strike. Each has a sufficient Overall excess of capacity for differences in Quantity and in the com position of their respective total arsenals to be of any real strategic both countries arc continuing to eliminate ground based nuclear missiles As agreed in the intermediate nuclear forces treaty. By june i the soviet Union eliminated 945 51 percent of its inf missiles while the United slates had eliminated 28 of its 165per Hing-2s and 25 of its 123 ground launched cruise missiles and others have been withdrawn from Europe. On regional conflicts the Institute gave a breakdown of defense spending and strategies in scores of nations and said the improving superpower relationship had had a largely positive but not exclusively beneficial effect. Although a number of wars from Cambodia and Afghanistan in Asia to Namibia and Angola in Africa were winding Down under superpower pressure the soviet Union and the United states had failed to pre vent some of their third world allies particularly inthe Middle East from developing their own chemical weapons or Stop a proliferation of ballistic missiles. Last year Institute officials were worried about the proliferation of surface to surface missiles and Chemi Cal weapons. The past year has done Little or anything to diminish this concern Cross said. This particular Genie is Well and truly out of the bottle most notably in the Middle East and South risk of getting aids in blood transfusions declining study says Boston a the Odds of getting an aids infection from a typical blood transfusion were just j in 28,000 two years ago and the risk is dropping More than 30 percent a year As fewer aids carriers arc donating blood a study says. The blood Supply is probably Safe now than it has Ever been concludes the study conducted by the american red Cross. However another report cautions that some people in the disease s High risk category still give blood despite appeals to refrain. The report also urges blood Banks to try harder to discourage them from donating. A third study showed that Over 95 per cent of people who receive aids tainted transfusions become infected with half of them developing aids within seven years. In general the research showed that women Are safer donors than men. The Riskiest blood is from men making donations for the first time and some people. Still give blood simply to learn whether they arc infected. In an editorial published with the three aids studies in thursday s new England journal of Medicine or. Jay e. Mini Tovac of the blood Center of South Eastern Wisconsin raised the possibility of requiring that the names of infected donors be reported to Public health authorities. This would help to advertise the difference Between blood drives and Anonymous aids testing programs. Statistics on the risk of transfusions were compiled by or. Paul d. Cumming and colleagues at red Cross Headquarters in Washington. From 17 million red Cross donations they estimated that 131 units of ads contaminated blood were transfused throughout the United states despite screening efforts in 1987. For a patient getting an average trans fusion of 5.4 units of red cells the chances of catching the aids virus were1 in 28,000 two years red Cross estimates that the number of infectious units fell to 87 in 1988. Many of those who get tainted blood die of other causes before their infection be comes apparent. Only 14 Clear Cut cases of transfusion associated aids have been re ported to the . Centers for disease c9n tool in Atlanta since widespread screening of blood began in 1985. The red Cross study found that the safest blood is Given by repeat women donors whose blood is nine times safer than that of first time male donors. In another study. Or. Susan f. Lit Man and others from the National institutes of health reviewed blood Dona Lions to the Nih and red Cross in Washington Belicen 1985 and 1988.they studied 156 people who gave aids tainted blood. Most of these people had injected drugs or engaged in homosexual practices. When questioned about Why they donated 26 percent said they had changed their lifestyles and did not be Lieve that their earlier habits had left them Al risk. Another 26 percent knew i hair blood would be tested for aids and wanted to find out if they were infected. Fifteen percent said they Felt pressured to do Nate. Only six percent said they did not read or understand Educ Lional Bro Chures alerting them nol to donate. In the third study or. John w. Ward from the cd studied 694 people who got tainted blood. They found thai while almost All the recipients got the infection the risk of getting full blown aids appeared to be highest if the donor developed aids shortly after making the donation. ,. I is we a a i anniversary ceremony East Germany s party Leader Erich 1 Ion ing a Wreath laying ceremony thursday Cockcr foreground stands beside the in East Berlin marking the 40th anther state s prime minister Willi Stop Dur sary of the communist state
