European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 18, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 8 the stars and stripes thursday january 18, 1990 study plots defense strategy if Philippines bases were lost world today b Laurie Scott Pacific stars and stripes Washington the loss of Clark a and the naval base at Subic Bay in the Philippines would have severe repercussions on . Strategy in the Pacific according to an Independent study. But the bases arc not irreplaceable and a number of alternatives could he pursued by the United slates if its forces had to give up the Philippines said to Ltd study by the National defense research Institute. The philippine Constitution requires that the Mili tary bases agreement Between both nations end in 1991 and that any future . Military presence in that country be governed by a treaty. The study which began in 1986, examines some of the Slakes involved in the negotiations and assesses the value of Clark and Subic Bay to both countries. The National defense research Institute is a non profit conservative think tank that deals almost exclusively with defense policy issues. The importance of Clark and Subic Bay was exam ined from the Point of View of How they would be used in five scenarios peacetime a vietnamese invasion of Thailand a soviet invasion of Iran a North korean invasion of South Korea and a general War with the soviet Union. The scenarios helped identify capabilities that would be required and indicated geographical considerations that would be involved in developing alternatives to the Philippines bases. A wide Range of such alternatives was examined. The study assumed that the United Stales would have Access to the alternative countries involved including China. The report although released just last month was based on information gathered before the quelling of the democratic uprising in China. One option which the study called the unconstrained Access package would be the least expensive for maintaining facilities in Southeast Asia. Air Force units would be based at Kuala Bumpur on the malaysian Peninsula and Navy units would be located primarily at the malaysian port of Labuan and supported by facilities in Pakistan and China. The worst Case option would involve Access to .territory Only. Air Force units would be based on Guam and Navy units would be split Between Guam and newly built facilities on the Island of Tinian. J�5 Philippines s4s Susan Hunt the costs for that option would be High since it would involve sending All air Crews Back to the unite states for training and would require repairing ships with High wage labor in Guam and Tinian. Increased requirements for shuttle ships would add to that Cost. The study also concluded that the United states could improve its negotiating position by reiterating its policy of departing military installations in requested by the Manila government. Misperception a on this Issue by some filipinos have aggravated concerns about sovereignty the study said. The United states May find it expedient to leave the Philippines if the Price asked for continued Access to the bases there is too High. Military capabilities can be replaced for less than some of the current demands even if Access to space in other countries proves to be problem the study said. The economic benefits from hosting the leases Are substantial for the philippine government. Foreign Aid is Only one component and not the largest Benefit. In economic terms the Philippines has much More Tolose in the negotiations than the United states if the bases Don t stay the study said. Philippines coup attempt expected to stall negotiations on . Bases by Laurie Scott Pacific stars and stripes Washington the .-Philippincs base negotiations which some lawmakers predicted would take place at the end of 1989, could be significantly delayed because of december s coup attempt against the government of president Corazon Aquino. State department officials said. But a House armed services committee staffer said the coup could help ensure that a . Military pres ence remains in the Philippines at Clark a and the sprawling naval base at Subic Bay. After the uni cd states responded to Aquino s re quest for air Coyer during the coup attempt and in the face of upcoming 1992 philippine presidential elections the philippine government should be anxious for us to  he said. And As far As the United states providing foreign Aid in Exchange for base rights goes they should be willing to pay us to remain in the Philippines  rep. Pat Schmo Cdr a Colo. Who chairs the House armed services military installations subcommittee said the United states has Given the Philippines Toogood of a Deal in the past. It s time we became better  she  future negotiations foreign Aid cannot be an Issue. If the Philippines wants us there As a Cash cow. They can forget it. We can go elsewhere. They have More Tolose than we  the current military bases agreement expires in mid september 1991. But the House armed services committee staffer said there is uncertainty about whether the United states must be out of the bases at that time or if a one year notice period begins when the agreement runs out. That Issue is probably being discussed by the Aqui no government right now he said. No firm Date was Ever set for base negotiations to begin. It s really up to Aquino to approach us and set a  Pope holds Short audience As he recovers from flu Vatican City a Pope John Paul ii bounced Back from a bout of flu and held his general audience wednesday. However head melted he was still feeling the effects of the ill Ness that has struck millions of people in Italy. After being Down with fever and cancelling his activities monday and tuesday the 69-year-old Pope appeared As scheduled in the Paul i auditorium for the weekly audience. But he Cut it Back by 30 minutes and kept from picking up and embracing children As he usually docs. The italian press has written that the Pope has the chinese flu the Pope told 4,000 Pil grims and tourists including about 300 from the soviet Union. This explains the Brevity of the speeches and salutes. I must behave As a person still not completely  the flu struck Italy in december starting mainly in Northern Region and moving Down to the Peninsula. Residents of Atlantic Island tackle mysterious Oil Slick Vila Valeira. Madeira islands a residents on the tiny Atlantic Island of Porto Santo used shovels and buckets to Battle a 12 Milc Long Oil Slick that blackened beaches an threatened a valuable nature Reserve. The origin of the Oil Slick was still undetermined. Help reached the portuguese Island on tues Day when the Lisbon government sent an air Force transport plane carrying an anti pollution team armed with floating barriers pumps and other equipment to combat the Slick. Since monday patches of Oil have washed up on the vacation Island s famous six mile White Sand Beach on the South coast while More crude coated the Rocky North and East coasts with thick slime. Military Roundup three Sembach units receive of maintenance awards Sembach a. Wisl Germany three Sembach units won 1989 air Force maintenance effectiveness awards. The winners arc the 66th consolidated aircraft Maint so in the consolidated aircraft maintenance activity category 609th tac control so Large communication electronics Squadron category and the 631st tac control right Small communication electronics Squadron category. The 609lh at bad i incr and the 631st at Sunburg both in West Germany arc geographically separated units of the 601st tac c control Wing head quartered at Sembach. Mannheim commander gets West German army award Mannheim West Germany Brig. Gen. Thom As c. Jones. Mannheim Community commander and Usa eur Provost marshal has been awarded the West German army Honor Cross in Gold. The award was presented Jan. 9 by Mai. Gen. Ger hard Brugmann commander of the West German territorial Southern  was honoured for supporting programs that have enhanced relations Between the  and West German armies and individual soldiers and local residents. Rushdie assassination game called disgraceful1 London a a promoter of executive War games said tuesday he is having second thoughts about a contest whose objective is the mock assassination of novelist Salman Rushdie. Perhaps with Hindsight it was an unfortunate  said Ian Lawson director of skirmish a country Lodge where executives work off stress by fighting mock Battles. Bob Gregory a spokesman for Rush die s publisher Viking Penguin denounced the game As disgraceful and in bad taste. Here s a human being in hid ing for fear of his life and they re making a game out of it. It s beyond  Rushdie has been in hiding for 11 months following the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini s Appeal to moslem to kill him for writing the satanic verses a novel some moslem find blasphemous. Lawson contacted by Telephone at the Lodge Nea Guisborough in Northern eng land said the game entailed one team chasing a Man in a Luminous dinner jacket who carries a shield called  while the opposing team defends him. The players try to shoot him with paint guns while he tries to escape to a Safe spot called the  and then to another place called the Safe House Lawson said. He said he had not meant to offend anyone and was trying to Contact Viking Penguin 1o apologize. He said that in View of the criticism after the Story sur faced in the local press he might drop the Rushdie Angle from the game. Those who come to play arc not com ing to shoot Salman Rushdie. They come to have a fun Day out and enjoy a variety of games including this one Lawson said. Lawson said another game being developed for the Lodge is the Noriega game in which one team defends a player representing the ousted Panama Nian dictator while the other Side tries to Kidnap him