European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - August 31, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                A w 1h1 crisis in the Gull Nia Many sided test for Bush hanging tou6h desert shield one of the army a a-10 tank Kuffler aircraft undergoes pre flight checks in  Arabia. By Thomas l. Friedman new York times t he race is on. President George Bush versus Saddam Hussein. There is no prize for coming in second. Saddam a strategy is now Clear by presenting himself to the Arab masses As Robin Hood come to steal from the Rich kuwaitis to give to the poor and come to purify the Arab world of corrupt lackeys and infidels the iraqi president Hopes to generate enough popular support that it will become impossible for his fellow Arab rulers to isolate him for Long. Bush s strategy at least for the near term is also Clear hold together a diverse Arab and International coalition boycotting Iraq Long enough to choke Saddam Hussein if not to death at least into saying he will vacate Kuwait. The question is who will last longer Saddam Hussein All but Cut off from world Trade essential to his survival or George Bush s coalition which could slowly be eroded by its conflicting interests and priorities not to mention by the brooding antipathy toward the United states now bubbling upon the Arab Street. Of course the answer will depend in part on the. Steps and missteps made by the unpredictable iraqi Leader a Steps Over which Bush will have Little control. But from Bush s perspective it will also depend heavily on his own ability to Lead the Domestic and International coalition that he has assembled Down what is an essentially uncharted course. Because the Gulf crisis is truly the first Post cold War crisis everyone involved is a Novice. They Are on a course where surprises will be lurking around every Corner. Experience May count less than instinct intuition and adaptability. Consider just a few of the lessons imparted by the crisis. It has already shown that the Post cold War Era might be As dangerous if in different ways As the cold War was. While the two superpowers were focused on Europe regional superpowers like Iraq were acquiring weapons of mass destruction that now enable them to act independently. Analysis Bush also appears to be learning that Post cold War crisis involving bizarre coalitions of Western and third world nations can require More sophisticated imaginative and Subtle american leadership than demanded by the Black and White largely Static confrontation with the soviet Union. More countries Are involved there seem to be More competing interests and the actors Are less predictable. In the Middle East in particular the interests of certain Arab states in blunting the iraqis is tempered by their disquiet about being in league with their former colonial occupiers. For american policymakers falling Back on hard and fast ideologically driven positions can be dangerous. The administration has already discovered tensions Between its Short term interests in the persian Gulf and its Long term interests said Robert w. Tucker an expert on the geopolitics of the persian Gulf at the Johns Hopkins school of advanced International studies Washington a primary Short term interest in the Gulf was insuring that saudi Arabia was not attacked or intimidated by Iraq because that would had have serious Page 16 a a a the stars and stripes implications for Western economies dependent on saudi Arabia s Oil and its policy of keeping prices Low. The interest has been achieved with the introduction of american troops. But America also has a Long term interest a the stability of pro american regimes in the Gulf Region and the desire of the United states to remain welcomed in the Middle East at Large. The danger now argued Tucker is that if the United states goes to War with Iraq to dislodge it from Kuwait it could provoke an anti american Arab reaction that would not Only threaten every pro american regime in the area but also sour United states relations with the Arab world for years to come. Dislodging Saddam Hussein from Kuwait is an american interest and desirable but doing it by Force a either intentionally or inadvertently a could badly damage longer term interests. A. A a a although Bush has made it Clear that he would like to see Saddam removed from Power the administration s diplomatic plan in the Gulf now rests on the More modest Goat of forcing him to withdraw his troops from Kuwait. Then according to the thinking in Bush sinner Circle the United states and its allies could probably contain Saddam and neutralize him As a regional Power without toppling him. Administration officials say this approach which has come into focus in recent Days is based on the notion that the Gulf crisis has so rearranged the Middle East a and indeed much of the rest of the world a politically and militarily that Saddam would be unable to pursue an expansionist policy what Washington also has discovered is that even in this new Multi Polar world Only the United states is Able and willing to be the policeman. The time has not come yet for America s last Hurrah. Why because said Joseph is Nye Harvard University professor of International relations America remains the Only country with enough hard Power a aircraft carriers and marines a and soft Power a diplomatic Sway a to launch and sustain the sort of massive initiative being undertaken to counter Iraq. That is Why when Saddam moved it was no Accident that ail eyes Friday August 31, 1990