European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - August 31, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Friday August 31,1990the stars and stripes Page 9 legless swimmer in Chita Kray Usua is carried from the water after swimming the English Channel a. German woman without legs swims English Channel Dover England apr a West German woman who lost her lower legs in a childhood Accident has swum the English Channel the Channel swimming association said tuesday. Lucyna Kray Usua 28, of Dortmund West Germany crossed the Channel on monday in 12 hours 29 minutes said Ray Scott chairman of the association. A it was better than most. Its a very Good time a said Scott. A of course her arms Are very very  he said the woman failed on two previous attempts to make the 21-mile crossing to France. The record time of 7 hours 40 minutes was set by an american swimmer Penny Dean in 1978. Kray Usua was part of a group of six which completed the crossing. Also in the group was Mosad Saad 29, of Cairo Egypt who has one leg Scott said. He finished in 13 hours 32 minutes. Flat economic indicator raises Chance of recession Washington apr the government wednesday said its main forecasting gauge of future economic activity was Flat in july indicating widespread weakness in the . Economy even before the persian Gulf crisis increased the chances of a  Commerce department said the Lack of any change in the Index or leading economic indicators followed revised gains of 0.1 percent in june and 0.6 percent in May. But analysts said they expected a Steep drop in August because of the Oil Price Spike and consumer jitters spurred by fears of War in the Middle East following the aug. 2 iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Typically three consecutive declines in the indent Are viewed As a fairly reliable although not infallible signal that the Economy is headed for a recession. Following iraqis invasion Many economists believe a recession is looming As an already sluggish . Economy Falls victim to rising inflation and consumer worries about a possible War. While the leading Index normally forecasts economic activity six to nine months in Advance some analysts believe the next recession May Start sooner with the most pessimistic believing the country May already be in a downturn. Already the Stock Market one of the components that makes up the Index has staged a Sharp Retreat and consumer Confidence is on the skids. A initial reports from the University of Michigan which measures consumer sentiment for the Commerce department indicate that the consumer a first reaction to the iraqi invasion was near panic Quot according to economist Mark m. Zandi of regional financial associates in West Chester a. A the sentiment Index fell 15 Points More than after the 1987 Stock Market crash to a level consistent with previous recessions Quot he said. Quot although sentiment has Likely improved in recent Days. The risks of a consumer retrenchment arc  since consumer spending represents two thirds of the nations economic activity Many analysis fear the persian Gulf crisis could cause further retrenchment leading to a recession. However after falling in May and june the con Sumer Index Rose slightly in july. Other positive contributors to the Index were an increase in orders for new plants and equipment and an increase in the Price of raw materials. _ negative contributors were faster business delivery times a decline in the Money Supply a drop in manufacturers unfilled orders a Shorter average workweek a drop in building permits an increase in weekly unemployment claims and a decline in the Stock Market. One of the components orders for consumer goods was unchanged. The various changes left the Index at 146.1 per cent of its 1982 base of 100 and up 1,4 percent from its level a year ago. If a recession can be avoided through november the economic expansion already the nations longest in peacetime will have reached its eighth anniversary. But it has been growing sluggishly for two years and some analysts contend that if the Economy is not in a recession now it soon will be. A the . Economy was stagnating Well before the persian Gulf crisis Quot Merrill Lynch economists wrote in their weekly economic amp financial commentary. They noted the Economy grew at a meager 1.2 percent annual rate in the second Quarter Ana said third Quarter indicators so far a have been uniformly a weak Quot Quot for july Quot they said Quot employment declined Industrial production was Flat retail sales did not keep Pace with inflation and housing starts dropped to the lowest level since 1982 a and that covered the period before the persian Gulf . Economists worry that a major cutback in consumer spending could Hall economic growth altogether and even push the nation into recession. Even before the invasion Many analysts were citing consumer concerns Over rising interest rates a Lack of Job growth High Levels of debt the savings and loan crisis and other Adverse economic news. A consumer spending is Only up about 1 percent Over last year a said Merrill Lynch s Bruce Steinberg. Quot that is typical of a  since then numerous polls have shown Consumers growing even More cautious. Just monday the new York based conference Board reported its Survey of 5,000 households nationwide showed Confidence plummeted nearly 18 Points to a 7-Ycar Low of 83.8 in August. The Index had remained virtually unchanged at 101.7 in july. A a War situation causes consumer Confidence to fall explained Richard peach an economist with the mortgage Bankers association. A people become unwilling to take on major responsibilities like buying a new  addition the surge in Oil prices forces individuals to spend More for gasoline and heating costs and leaves them with less discretionary income for such items As cars and refrigerators. And with major sectors such As automobiles and housing already weak analysts say it would not take much of a shove to Force the Economy into a decline. Austria to open roads to italian w. German trucks Brussels Belgium apr Aust a agreed tuesday to gradually restore truck traffic Between West Germany and Italy that came to a halt last week in tit for Tat retaliatory moves by the latter two nations. The dec said Austria will fix a damaged Bridge at Kofstein part of the North South Highway through the Alps and make two alternative roads available to trucks. In turn Italy and West Germany will a immediately Quot allow austrian trucks to Cross their Borders. The Kofstein Bridge was closed in july when it was damaged in an Accident. Austria opened an alternative Road ignoring appeals to open More to North South truck traffic. On Friday Italy and West Germany barred austrian trucks from entering their territories in retaliation. At a meeting at the dec head office the West German austrian and italian transport ministers reached an Accord under which 1,500 trucks a Day can Cross the Kofstein Bridge As of saturday. This will go to up to 2,500 by sept. 15 and to 3,000 by Jan. I 1991. By mid-1991, truck traffic on the Kofstein Bridge which spans the River inn should be Back to its Normal rate of some 10,000 trucks daily officials said. Until then Austria will let northbound trucks through the Achen pass and southbound trusits through the Fern pass said dec transportation commissioner Karel Van Miert who presided at the meeting. The lifting of the restrictive measures taken by All countries. Will take of acct immediately Quot he added. Austrian officials said the Kofstein Bridge will be reopened on Friday. Until sept. 15, Only the least noisy trucks and those carrying perishable goods will be allowed to use it they said. The criteria As to what types of trucks can use the Kofstein Bridge after sept. 15 have yet to be agreed on a but under no circumstances shall those criteria be discriminatory a Van Miert said. Its been a Long dry summer for Pogo a swamp Waycross a. Apr Pogo a Home swamp is so dry that overcrowded alligators Are starting to eat each  summer drought has turned the Okefenokee swamp into a Tinderbox with water Levels at their lowest in 20 years said Don Perkuchin manager of a 396,000-acre National Refuge in the swamp. Fire danger and a wildlife crisis forced the refugees closure to fishing enthusiasts and boaters. A a lot of the Canoe trails have no water a Perkuchin said a a we re very dry and its been a cumulative effect Over the last decade. What its going to take is a major tropical system to dump a 5 or 10-Inch rain or a Long period of substantial rain to turn things around. Okefenokee swamp encompassing about 700 Square Miles mostly in Southeast Georgia is the real life wetland the serves As the Home of comic strip character Pogo created by the late cartoonist Walt Kelly. Okefenokee National wildlife Refuge workers Are using a helicopter to spot Small fires which Are mostly sparked by lightning Perkuchin said. A a we be had lightning strikes and we be had to go out and dump water on those Quot he said recently. A fire discovered july 7 burned 4,500 acres of swamp land before it was doused. A if things continue to stay dry the fire Hazard can get worse a Perkuchin said. Much of Georgia has been plagued by drought since june. Farmers have suffered up to $350 million in crop losses and some communities in the Atlanta area have had to restrict water use. Bill Cribbs a biology professor at Valdosta state College who has made a lifelong study of the swamp said the crisis is hitting wildlife. A younger gators Are being Eafen by Olfer gators he said. A fish resources Are really taking a beating both from consumption by other animals and reduced habitat. A lot of the Bird life you a normally see you just done to have around the  the Suwannee River one of two Rivers that originate in the swamp is almost dry Cribbs said. A a in a exp ing it to get much drier before it gets better unless we have a Hurricane a he said. Alligators feeding on each other might actually be a Good thing he said. Quot when you have a drought period and All the water recedes to these Small areas the alligators eat turtles snakes smaller alligators and even the raccoons that come to feed Quot he said. Quot if they did no to eat their own population there a be nothing to hold the Alligator population in